azcards1014 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hamilton had .22 not great on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hamilton had .22 not great on euro I think that is a believable total at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azcards1014 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 So anywhere from 2 inches to what 7-8 for Hamilton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 blech. euro a bit southeast... A bit colder too. euro says OHweather scores yet again c'mon man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I may be able to drive 20 miles late tonight and go from heavy rain to a winter wonderland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I may be able to drive 20 miles late tonight and go from heavy rain to a winter wonderland I'll meet you halfway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Worst case scenario for me is the back edge never completely changes to snow until knox county and northeastward. All the NWS offices lifted the zr advisory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 All the NWS offices lifted the zr advisory... It was only up til noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Not fully confident yet on the western camp, but I think 3-5" is a good call for Toronto. Niagara falls in the 8-10" range. K-W and Guelph get by with 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azcards1014 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Not fully confident yet on the western camp, but I think 3-5" is a good call for Toronto. Niagara falls in the 8-10" range. K-W and Guelph get by with 2-3". How about for Stoney creek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'll meet you halfway My gut is that I don't score big. Most models still have me just warm enough for rain till the tail end, but it's only by a degree or two. So I'm still hoping but not optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 blech. euro a bit southeast... A bit colder too. euro says OHweather scores yet again c'mon man Radar hallucinations suggest the Euro is going to be too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 My gut is that I don't score big. Most models still have me just warm enough for rain till the tail end, but it's only by a degree or two. So I'm still hoping but not optimistic most recent trends on the short range look a lot like the euro, more southeast with best axis just east and south of CMH. The Zanesville folks are reeling this one in,,,,as of this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Radar hallucinations suggest the Euro is going to be too far east. yea, I definitely got my weenie radar goggles polished up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 yea, I definitely got my weenie radar goggles polished up At this point, we need Mega Maid to go from blow to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Model spread has definitely tightened since this morning. My updated call is 4-7" for the city of Toronto. Peak rates from HRRRX 1hsnw_t3sfc_f23.png I may bump mine up too after the 18z suite comes in. I can't believe this trended in the right direction for us once. Talked to a few people this morning. No one's expecting any snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 At this point, we need Mega Maid to go from blow to suck. So I'm trying to remember a similar storm that was this close with this set up....(meaning not being pushed southeast by a strong HP in place to the north)....and I can't. I mean we have a storm taking the perfect track and we are sweating a miss east with precip shield with no HP bearing down on it. It really is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 most recent trends on the short range look a lot like the euro, more southeast with best axis just east and south of CMH. The Zanesville folks are reeling this one in,,,,as of this moment. At least there was a storm to track! First synoptic storm all winter for us in NE Ohio that posed a legitimate snow threat. It's tough riding the line, but it sure feels better hoping for a NW trend than a SE adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I may bump mine up too after the 18z suite comes in. I can't believe this trended in the right direction for us once. Talked to a few people this morning. No one's expecting any snow tomorrow. Remember the best snows happen when nobody is expecting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 So I'm trying to remember a similar storm that was this close with this set up....(meaning not being pushed southeast by a strong HP in place to the north)....and I can't. I mean we have a storm taking the perfect track and we are sweating a miss east with precip shield with no HP bearing down on it. It really is amazing. I really can't think of one either. There are tons and tons and tons of examples of a storm moving further NW in this setup, even weak ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Not fully confident yet on the western camp, but I think 3-5" is a good call for Toronto. Niagara falls in the 8-10" range. K-W and Guelph get by with 2-3". Agreed. It's a trend that needs to be monitored but too soon to jump on board completely. In the same vein, the fact that the 12z EURO nudged SE really isn't that much of a concern. It's nowcasting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 At least there was a storm to track! First synoptic storm all winter for us in NE Ohio that posed a legitimate snow threat. It's tough riding the line, but it sure feels better hoping for a NW trend than a SE adjustment. I agree. I haven't been doing much short range model following this year because we are usually eliminated well before short range. So what are the typical trends in the short range, if any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 18z SPC analysis has a 1007mb low over NW LA. This is several mbs deeper than the 12z NAM/GFS prog. Location is good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I agree. I haven't been doing much short range model following this year because we are usually eliminated well before short range. So what are the typical trends in the short range, if any?I'd say with a storm like this that is riding up west up the Apps with a negatively tilted trough at the last minute that models will adjust too far NW and have to edge back SE last minute. Sort of like the HRRR today. I don't think I cash in and in fact you may still see more snow than me but I'm skeptical of this trending NW until it stops snowing like some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 18z SPC analysis has a 1007mb low over NW LA. This is several mbs deeper than the 12z NAM/GFS prog. Location is good though. When you're riding the line between rain and snow, a stronger storm can be good or bad. The negative is it could come too far NW and flood warm air in. The positive is that it could increase the chance for dynamic cooling with heavier rates in the right spot, and provided the track is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 When you're riding the line between rain and snow, a stronger storm can be good or bad. The negative is it could come too far NW and flood warm air in. The positive is that it could increase the chance for dynamic cooling with heavier rates in the right spot, and provided the track is good.I think if Columbus gets into the heavy band it's mainly snow. Just my $0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 RAP has nudged SE as well. I think as Bliz96 said the truth will be somewhere in between the 12z globals and the super amped up solutions the HRRR/RAP/HDGEM were showing earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 U a warning, us up here an advisory is my bet. your prediction looking more and more solid. Advisory Franklin, Delaware, Fayette...... Warning Fairfield, Licking on east. Last call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 your prediction looking more and more solid. Advisory Franklin, Delaware, Fayette...... Warning Fairfield, Licking on east. Last call. When will they bite and issue..that's the question..or do they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 your prediction looking more and more solid. Advisory Franklin, Delaware, Fayette...... Warning Fairfield, Licking on east. Last call.I was hoping to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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