MoistWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I really tried not to get too hyped up about this... But things are looking pretty decent. There's been pretty good consistency now on there being a narrow band of nice accumulations, and Licking County keeps showing up near/in that zone. Still, with as narrow as that zone is going to be, I'm not going to get my hopes up until I start seeing it materialize. HRRRX showing a nice band of accumulation along the I-71 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 In RAP we trust Good thing EC just reissued the weather statement for Niagara Region after canceling it at 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NWS offices for the Ohio area all saying freezing rain with very little snow. Maybe they haven't updated or believe it's going to be mostly rain still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 In the NWS's defense though of holding back on advisories/warnings based on the HRRR, I have seen it bust before on borderline snow events, specifically in the Indiana/Ohio area. However, nearly every model is showing the band at this point...if the 15Z SREF comes in more aggressive, I think we'll see some warnings/advisories put up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Taking bets...will we get a WSW or a WWA for our area!! Things are trending better and not much time left!! starting to get some decent consensus on at least a low end warning criteria for parts of the ILN area. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic that we'll see a warning issued for Franklin, Delaware, Licking, and Fairfeld counties. The question is areas like Madison, Union, Fayette.... HRRR says yes, but most of the models are still favoring the axis a tad east of that. I guess the other thing they could do is issue WWA's for something like 2-5" leaving the option open to nowcast a warning upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Been out of the loop. Is this tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That's 12-18" across the GTA!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Wow that model is pretty far west. Do you know which model that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The hi-res models on the NCEP site are also west with the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Wow that model is pretty far west. Do you know which model that is?They have all came west this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Wow that model is pretty far west. Do you know which model that is? I think that's the RPM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 8-15" for our region. I told you were not a synoptic desert canuck. ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENINGTO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.* TIMING...FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES TUESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Locals coming around..calling for 6.5 here in Newark...how long will they wait to hoist watches and or warnings?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Lol Cejka still around? Awesome. Looks a little befuddled there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Lol Cejka still around? Awesome. Looks a little befuddled there. That western trend had him concerned hence the face lol, he was thinking the heaviest precip might be on the western end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Lol Cejka still around? Awesome. Looks a little befuddled there. Don Paul is retiring next month though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 8-15" for our region. I told you were not a synoptic desert canuck. ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENINGTO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.* TIMING...FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES TUESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES. I think the 12z might be tad bit higher, BUF stays all snow and the mix line is right by ROC throughout the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Don Paul is retiring next month though. omg....that's terrible! Don is a treasure. I kind of stopped watching him though when the paired him with other dude. I think his name is Santos? Just didn't do it for me. The force that is The Paul needs no help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 omg....that's terrible! Don is a treasure. I kind of stopped watching him though when the paired him with other dude. I think his name is Santos? Just didn't do it for me. The force that is The Paul needs no help. I agree he was the last one I really watched. Hopefully they get a good replacement, obviously don is irreplaceable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I agree he was the last one I really watched. Hopefully they get a good replacement, obviously don is irreplaceable though. I think Aaron Mentkowski from channel 7 is good also.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Taking bets...will we get a WSW or a WWA for our area!! Things are trending better and not much time left!!U a warning, us up here an advisory is my bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRRX has a nice 12-18" over Port Colborne by 10am tomorrow and the precip isn't even done yet, insanity.. 11:23 AM EST Monday 15 February 2016Special weather statement in effect for: Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region St. Catharines - Grimsby - Northern Niagara Region Winter storm threatening overnight Tonight and Tuesday.A low pressure system developing over Texas is expected to approach the lower Great lakes Tuesday morning. This system is expected to intensify into a winter storm and impact portions of eastern Ontario and possibly the Niagara region.Snow is forecast to move north across the international border near dawn and linger for much of the day. Snowfall amounts will depend upon the exact nature of the Low track but current information suggests total snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm.Travelling conditions may become hazardous due to poor visibilities in accumulating snow.Environment Canada is closely monitoring this situation. Winter storm warnings are likely to follow this afternoon as more information becomes available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 U a warning, us up here an advisory is my bet. definitely a strong poss. Just heard the abc met say rain changing to snow with 'pockets' of 2-4". Pockets = covering his ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Worst case scenario for Central Ohio would be that everyone buys the recent trends for more of a snow event, warnings or advisories go up... and the event ends up being rain anyway. I could totally see that happening. Precip just now crossing the river, so we'll know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Model spread has definitely tightened since this morning. My updated call is 4-7" for the city of Toronto. Peak rates from HRRRX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Worst case scenario for Central Ohio would be that everyone buys the recent trends for more of a snow event, warnings or advisories go up... and the event ends up being rain anyway. I could totally see that happening. When we are this close to an event and I can't decide whether we get screwed due to precip-type issues or being missed, it usually means we're in good shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 When we are this close to an event and I can't decide whether we get screwed due to precip-type issues or being missed, it usually means we're in good shape I think being missed totally is off the table at this point. We're clearly going to see at least something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Is anybody able to post 12Z Euro amounts when it's out? We could use it, given that Euro has probably been the most consistent track-wise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I think being missed totally is off the table at this point. We're clearly going to see at least something. Worst case scenario for me is the back edge never completely changes to snow until knox county and northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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