blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I find the models do a poor job of picking up snow deformation bands on the fringes of lows, which are often the places where deformation bands set up. I recall a winter or two ago where it looked like a very sharp snow accumulation gradient between downtown Toronto and the 401, with the 401 getting next to nothing... 401 ended up getting the most due to deformation band on the dringe. Yes. For almost every major system around here it seems like models have a sharp gradient setting up from NW to SE. I can't remember the last time this actually verified. Thinking the floor is 3-4" with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I wonder if everything got sampled for the 12z model cycle or do we have to wait until 18z or tonight's 00z runs to nail down a solution? This is a tricky forecast. The kicker clipper is currently along the BC/AB border, and that's the last piece of the puzzle AFAIA. So...I think we're good re: sampling. Of course, that's the middle of the Rocky Mountains...where I'm guessing RAOB coverage is a little sparser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yeah, Apps runners are rare breads. You think once we get one everything could just go perfectly. 12zNAMSNO.jpg 12z NAM doesn't seem to think thermals will be a problem for OH. But CMH riding the razor's edge like we are. that looks a lot like my call for central OH... extreme eastern subs of CMH to Zanesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 CLE could use another push to the west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yeah, Apps runners are rare breads. You think once we get one everything could just go perfectly. 12zNAMSNO.jpg 12z NAM doesn't seem to think thermals will be a problem for OH. But CMH riding the razor's edge like we are. Where's the NW trend when you need it? A lot of big population centers are riding the line with this one which makes it extra interesting. Such a huge bust potential either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Where's the NW trend when you need it? A lot of big population centers are riding the line with this one which makes it extra interesting. Such a huge bust potential either way. If we could get another shift of about 80-90 miles to the W, we'd make CMH, CLE and YYZ happy PLUS I think BUF would still get their dumping too. Everyone wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 In the olden days, you could almost guarantee the nw deform band would end up further west.... I don't know if models have improved or what, but you can't count on it any longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRRX at hour 24. Looks very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRRX at hour 24. Looks very good. hrrrx_ref_ne_25.png what's the track record of that baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 what's the track record of that baby? When a system trends NW in the short range, the HRRR does very well IMO. I don't have a lot of experience with the experimental version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 CLE could use another push to the west too. Yep, I'd feel much better with another nudge west 50 or so miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GFS looks to have nudged the heaviest snow again to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Almost all of the models are indicating a band of moderate-heavy snow just south/along the I-71 corridor yet ILN has still not pulled the trigger...looking like a major potential bust setup if the models are right. Per ILN: THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THIS TRANSITION ANDIF IT HAPPENS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THEN PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIOCOULD GET SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 In the olden days, you could almost guarantee the nw deform band would end up further west.... I don't know if models have improved or what, but you can't count on it any longer. GFS came a little west (I think). Winter Storm Warnings just 2 counties to my southeast! I'm with you Buck, wake me in May!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GFS came a little west (I think). Winter Storm Warnings just 2 counties to my southeast! I'm with you Buck, wake me in May!!!!!! Where did you see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Almost all of the models are indicating a band of moderate-heavy snow just south/along the I-71 corridor yet ILN has still not pulled the trigger...looking like a major potential bust setup if the models are right. Per ILN: THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THIS TRANSITION AND IF IT HAPPENS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THEN PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO COULD GET SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. Definitely potential for a big bust or major coup by ILN with this. It is going to be pretty close, either way. Probably will be a nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I think things are trending better..lol hard to tell!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 gfs confirms the threaded needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Where did you see this?NOAA site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 gfs confirms the threaded needle.Unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NOAA site I seen WWA...But no WSW..hmmm NOAA site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRRX at hour 24. Looks very good. hrrrx_ref_ne_25.png drool worthy. Not willing to bite on something that far NW yet...but seems to be pretty good consensus emerging of around 0.3-0.4" QPF. I'm going to go with a prelim call of 2-5" for Toronto...no real gradient in the amounts. Like snowcaine said, there's always some banding along the northern/western periphery that screws that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRR says nearing 2" right across the area by midnight. This is definitely going to be a radar watching event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I seen WWA...But no WSW..hmmm My bust fellas! The map did say Warning and then I refreshed the page it it changed to advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 In RAP we trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Initial call of 3-6" for the city of toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 In RAP we trust 8" yeah right. But that's good for me if its good for GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Taking bets...will we get a WSW or a WWA for our area!! Things are trending better and not much time left!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Could DT have been right with his 4-8..hmmm..next 12 hrs will be critical!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hrrr showing 12-18 in my area. I'm sticking with my 4-7 call for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.