BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The models shifting east has me concerned. I went all rain and mentioned flooding here given 1-2" of QPF and snow melting and running off on frozen ground, but the 4km drills us and is usually one of the farther NW models. I'd look like a complete a** if we get anything more than 2" I'm trying to figure out why the 4KM NAM is 50 miles further west than the 12KM NAM? Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm trying to figure out why the 4KM NAM is 50 miles further west than the 12KM NAM? Any thoughts?It's a slightly different model. It uses the 12km for initialization and for its boundary conditions IIRC but is higher res and can explicitly show convection instead of paramaterizing it. That's the main difference I can think of but they're somewhat different models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It's a slightly different model. It uses the 12km for initialization and for its boundary conditions IIRC but is higher res and can explicitly show convection instead of paramaterizing it. That's the main difference I can think of but they're somewhat different models Makes sense Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 0z GFS isn't as weenie-tastic as the 4km NAM here, but its warm layer only gets as warm as 1C to briefly 2C here and isn't deep. I don't think I pull off anything too exciting here but that's very close, and I quietly put a snow mention back into my school's forecast for Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Living on the razor's edge... Ideal setup for a 401 deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 ILN: THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THIS TRANSITION ANDIF IT HAPPENS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THEN PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIOCOULD GET SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPTACCUMULATIONS IN THAT AREA AROUND AN INCH. so 1-substantial is their call. Biggest zone of potential surprise is probably from the far eastern suburbs of CMH to Zanesville. Newark guys right in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 ILN: THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THIS TRANSITION AND IF IT HAPPENS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THEN PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO COULD GET SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ACCUMULATIONS IN THAT AREA AROUND AN INCH. so 1-substantial is their call. Biggest zone of potential surprise is probably from the far eastern suburbs of CMH to Zanesville. Newark guys right in there. Well, here is ILN's worst (or best?) case scenario. Looks like you're in the game too buckeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Updated models for TO(QPF) 6z RGEM: 0.6-0.8" 0z ECMWF: 0.35" 0z EPS: 0.45" 6z HRDPS: 0.8-1.2" 6z GFS: 0.1-0.2" 6z NAM/WRF: 0.1-0.2" What an easy forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Updated models for TO(QPF) 6z RGEM: 0.6-0.8" 0z ECMWF: 0.35" 0z EPS: 0.45" 6z HRDPS: 0.8-1.2" 6z GFS: 0.1-0.2" 6z NAM/WRF: 0.1-0.2" What an easy forecast... 3z SREF mean is at 0.70"...so that gives some credibility to the GEM based models. But I remember how poorly they performed during last weeks meandering low and I feel like we'll get burned if we buy into those solutions. The experimental HRRR (which goes to 24 hours), which another hi res model, seems to support the westerly models.... It's tough...I'm going to withhold making a first call until after the 12z runs come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 little closed 1008mb slp over NE LA at 12z per the SPC mesoanalysis page is a touch deeper than the 6z NAM/GFS progs. Both still have an open wave at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 3z SREF mean is at 0.70"...so that gives some credibility to the GEM based models. But I remember how poorly they performed during last weeks meandering low and I feel like we'll get burned if we buy into those solutions. The experimental HRRR (which goes to 24 hours), which another hi res model, seems to support the westerly models.... It's tough...I'm going to withhold making a first call until after the 12z runs come in. The 0z UKIE is also in the west camp. This is as tough as it gets but my gut tells me the west camp wins or it's a blend of the Euro/EPS and the RGEM suite. Would like some of the other mesos to join the RGEM to give it more credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The 0z UKIE is also in the west camp. This is as tough as it gets but my gut tells me the west camp wins or it's a blend of the Euro/EPS and the RGEM suite. Would like some of the other mesos to join the RGEM to give it more credibility. Yeah, I was hoping the 4km NAM would have been in that camp. It may be a touch west of the OP NAM but not a huge difference. Such a tough (and exciting I gotta say) forecast. 30-40 miles difference in where this thing track could mean the difference between 1" or 10" for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Newstalk 1010 saying 2cm possible. Anything substantial and Torontonians will be surprised, especially considering our largest snowfall is 3.5" so far. I wonder if EC pulls the trigger on watches/warnings if the RGEM/HRDPS remain bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Newstalk 1010 saying 2cm possible. Anything substantial and Torontonians will be surprised, especially considering our largest snowfall is 3.5" so far. I wonder if EC pulls the trigger on watches/warnings if the RGEM/HRDPS remain bullish. That's basically EC's forecast. They've only gone 2-4cm for the Niagara peninsula while Niagara County NY is under a WSW So they've outright rejected the RGEM/HRGEM, and even the EURO it seems. Looks like they're riding the further east camp. I have to say, climo would seem to support the NAM/GFS eastern solution, and with all the uncertainty I don't blame them for being uber conservative. I think a SWS encompassing the GTA and Hamilton/Niagara would have been helpful...just in case the wetter models turn out to be correct. If the 12z runs come in favourably their hand might be forced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Although a much different setup, I'm getting a flashback to Dec. 11, 2014. I believe the HRDPS was the first model to sniff out high QPF values (around 0.7-0.8") for that storm. And it was on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Although a much different setup, I'm getting a flashback to Dec. 11, 2014. I believe the HRDPS was the first model to sniff out high QPF values (around 0.7-0.8") for that storm. And it was on the money. 9z SREF mean QPF for YYZ plummets to 0.36" from 0.69" at 3z. Not picking out any trends just bouncing back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That's basically EC's forecast. They've only gone 2-4cm for the Niagara peninsula while Niagara County NY is under a WSW So they've outright rejected the RGEM/HRGEM, and even the EURO it seems. Looks like they're riding the further east camp. I have to say, climo would seem to support the NAM/GFS eastern solution, and with all the uncertainty I don't blame them for being uber conservative. I think a SWS encompassing the GTA and Hamilton/Niagara would have been helpful...just in case the wetter models turn out to be correct. If the 12z runs come in favourably their hand might be forced. Totally agree with the bolded. Regarding niagara, even the direst models have 4-6". Anything lower is a bit silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12z NAM coming west by quite a bit with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Youngstown, OH looks to be the Ohio jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12z NAM coming west by quite a bit with the CCB. Yep...sfc low ends up in the same spot by 27 but a good deal deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 1-3" seems like a decent call for the GTA right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 1-3" seems like a decent call for the GTA right now. Tough to say 'cause we're still in motion with this stuff. Now even with the NAM, which was in the drier camp, that looks like a conservative call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Too bad the mid levels of this system don't develop more. The sfc track is a dream for us but without a closed H7/H5 low it doesn't really develop an expansive deformation zone well to the W/NW of the sfc storm. Instead we have this narrow corridor of snow which we have to sweat each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Too bad the mid levels of this system don't develop more. The sfc track is a dream for us but without a closed H7/H5 low it doesn't really develop an expansive deformation zone well to the W/NW of the sfc storm. Instead we have this narrow corridor of snow which we have to sweat each model run. that's what makes this a real kick in the nuts, of course you guys just have to sweat the precip location, we have to sweat precip location AND temp issues. you guys are threading a needle.... we are threading a needle with mittens on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Too bad the mid levels of this system don't develop more. The sfc track is a dream for us but without a closed H7/H5 low it doesn't really develop an expansive deformation zone well to the W/NW of the sfc storm. Instead we have this narrow corridor of snow which we have to sweat each model run. I'm holding out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Too bad the mid levels of this system don't develop more. The sfc track is a dream for us but without a closed H7/H5 low it doesn't really develop an expansive deformation zone well to the W/NW of the sfc storm. Instead we have this narrow corridor of snow which we have to sweat each model run. I find the models do a poor job of picking up snow deformation bands on the fringes of lows, which are often the places where deformation bands set up. I recall a winter or two ago where it looked like a very sharp snow accumulation gradient between downtown Toronto and the 401, with the 401 getting next to nothing... 401 ended up getting the most due to deformation band on the dringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I find the models do a poor job of picking up snow deformation bands on the fringes of lows, which are often the places where deformation bands set up. I recall a winter or two ago where it looked like a very sharp snow accumulation gradient between downtown Toronto and the 401, with the 401 getting next to nothing... 401 ended up getting the most due to deformation band on the dringe. Feb 5, 2014. North York got around a foot I think. Downtown got 8-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 that's what makes this a real kick in the nuts, of course you guys just have to sweat the precip location, we have to sweat precip location AND temp issues. you guys are threading a needle.... we are threading a needle with mittens on Yeah, Apps runners are rare breads. You think once we get one everything could just go perfectly. 12z NAM doesn't seem to think thermals will be a problem for OH. But CMH riding the razor's edge like we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I find the models do a poor job of picking up snow deformation bands on the fringes of lows, which are often the places where deformation bands set up. I recall a winter or two ago where it looked like a very sharp snow accumulation gradient between downtown Toronto and the 401, with the 401 getting next to nothing... 401 ended up getting the most due to deformation band on the dringe. If some mid level frontogenetic forcing develops we'll be in the likely spot that it does. Just one more small push to the west and I'll be happy. 1-2' would be nice but I'll settle for 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I wonder if everything got sampled for the 12z model cycle or do we have to wait until 18z or tonight's 00z runs to nail down a solution? This is a tricky forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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