snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The lead clipper is likely to drop an inch or so...so minus that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z GEFs a mixed bag. No real help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 it's a bad set up in a what's been a terrible winter. But bad is better than terrible, so I'm in until all the models either show a whiff, and if they don't, then I'm in until the radar turns green. I mean c'mon, it's not like it's been a banner winter and we've earned the right to snub our noses at this. I won't say I don't have hope But my actual forecast is not at all reflective of my hope.Sent from my TF300T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 00NAM should be more amped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 0z GFS looks like it's caving to the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 0z GFS looks like it's caving to the Euro...Sooooooo shocking!!!! LOL Looks like rain! Just what I figured would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I knew precip type was the key to this event... I'm holding on to a glimmer of hope that us here around Dayton may squeak out something frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hard to believe we are sitting at 0 degrees right now and we have to worry about rain....unreal!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 3-5 inches of snow on the ground around Dayton could also lead to some cooling at the surface and possible rain freezing on contact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 UKMET, once champion of the westerly track, is now weaker and east with the low. Just in time for what seemed like the GFS capitulation. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Euro went weaker and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Euro went weaker and east Ever so slightly. It's not far from the 0z GFS and the QPF is pretty similar to the 12z run of the Euro...although the surface low itself is a little weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Need another 80 miles NW to get snow locally. Starting to see consensus on the track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GEFS are amped. If that secondary wave was just a tad faster and merged with this system we would be talking a historic system for the great lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 0z Euro remains remarkably consistent overall, although it is slightly weaker and southeast compared to 12z. My thoughts remain unchanged. The main event Monday will be rain for Cincinnati and Columbus. Counties to the east of both cities may get a little inch or two of slop if temps drop fast enough before precip exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The silence in this thread today is ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 30 euro ENS members have at least 2" of snow for the GTA. I think a small hit is becoming more likely. 11 members have 6"+ bringing the mean to ~4" assuming a 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 30 euro ENS members have at least 2" of snow for the GTA. I think a small hit is becoming more likely. 11 members have 6"+ bringing the mean to ~4" assuming a 10:1 ratio. SREF mean up to 3.5". SREFs and GEFs seem pretty amped up overall. Everything seems to be falling into place except the EURO and UKIE all of a suddenly semi-bailed on this. So my confidence level remains low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 SREF mean up to 3.5". SREFs and GEFs seem pretty amped up overall. Everything seems to be falling into place except the EURO and UKIE all of a suddenly semi-bailed on this. So my confidence level remains low. The 9z SREF has 1.10" liquid but only 2.5" of snow which is a bit weird. It wouldn't surprise me if the euro struggles now that we're within 84 hours as there is a lot of mesoscale action to be sorted out. The EPS mean has been improving steadily so that is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 9z SREF has 1.10" liquid but only 2.5" of snow which is a bit weird. It wouldn't surprise me if the euro struggles now that we're within 84 hours as there is a lot of mesoscale action to be sorted out. The EPS mean has been improving steadily so that is a good sign. Lol I think if you look at the p-type chart you'll get your answer. The juicier SREF members turn us to rain. Well...let's see how the 12z suite unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Lol I think if you look at the p-type chart you'll get your answer. The juicier SREF members turn us to rain. Well...let's see how the 12z suite unfolds. That makes sense. Thinking the NAM comes NW at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 That makes sense. Thinking the NAM comes NW at 12z. Agreed. S/w over the southern Plains looks sharper at 30 compared to the 6z run at 36. Sfc low in same spot but a bit deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Agreed. S/w over the southern Plains looks sharper at 30 compared to the 6z run at 36. Sfc low in same spot but a bit deeper. The trailing s/w looks further back as well. Slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The trailing s/w looks further back as well. Pretty apparent by 36 we're going to have an amped up run. Kicker is closing in fast....hopefully it doesn't mess things up too much. edit: not quite there but a trend in the right direction. Wonder if the kicker might actually phase and we bomb. Kinda looks that way at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Tantalizingly close but not quite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z RGEM has a track west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wow, Kingston area looks to be obliterated on the 12z runs.....what a shift in the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The silence in this thread today is ominous. yea, it basically boils down to waiting to see how much white we can salvage after the green....and even then the warm up cometh anyways. What an incredibly in your face winter for us CMH'ers. As we shiver in single digits, we finally are staring down the barrel of a traditionally beautiful winterstorm track and we will end up predominantly rain. Now the only thing that could happen that would make this an even worse winter would be a slow, agonizing end to it. Cloudy cold rain and slop til May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 yea, it basically boils down to waiting to see how much white we can salvage after the green....and even then the warm up cometh anyways. What an incredibly in your face winter for us CMH'ers. As we shiver in single digits, we finally are staring down the barrel of a traditionally beautiful winterstorm track and we will end up predominantly rain. Now the only thing that could happen that would make this an even worse winter would be a slow, agonizing end to it. Cloudy cold rain and slop til May The forecast isn't *quite* as bad as yesterday. Perhaps 2-4" by Monday morning before the changeover, and then back to snow Monday night through Tuesday. That is a change from little to no accumulation today and tonight and then rain through Tuesday like it was yesterday. It sucks that the main part is going to be rain, but you have to take what you can get this winter. We'll at least *potentially* surpass the seasonal total of 2011-2012 and 2005-2006 and 2001-2002. That's something, right? Right??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z RGEM has a track west of the apps. I_nw_EST_2016021412_048.png That's a shot of what can be described as our best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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