Jrad08 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I personally am worried about the temp profiles for those who do get into the precip. Maybe hope for some night time accumulations ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 7:08 PM, Jrad08 said: I personally am worried about the temp profiles for those who do get into the precip. Maybe hope for some night time accumulations ... definitely a concern. Euro flame throws the surface right before the precip moves in.... 850's look ok but the 2m temps are mid to upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 sref says don't expect any sig changes on the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I guess DT had his beer goggles on. His first guess map has 4-8 across central and southern Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z RGEM beyond 48 hours would be more amped than the NAM/GFS/GGEM camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 9:23 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 18z RGEM beyond 48 hours would be more amped than the NAM/GFS/GGEM camp.The RGEM has quietly been a pretty good short range model the last two winters. If it supports the Euro/UK it's interesting. I'll finally have time to really look at things this evening, so at this time I'm still not sure how I feel. Kicker trying to keep the storm from really amping up and lack of cold high to the north are both concerns for me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I feel like this is shaping up for a now cast event and would obviously favor areas from Southeastern Ohio, Middle PA, Eastern Ny right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 9:23 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 18z RGEM beyond 48 hours would be more amped than the NAM/GFS/GGEM camp. Trailing clipper weaker compared to the GGEM at hour 54(0z/16). GEM RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 9:26 PM, OHweather said: The RGEM has quietly been a pretty good short range model the last two winters. If it supports the Euro/UK it's interesting. I'll finally have time to really look at things this evening, so at this time I'm still not sure how I feel. Kicker trying to keep the storm from really amping up and lack of cold high to the north are both concerns for me though. I love the 18z NAM. Kicker is kept in check but still no dice with the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 9:32 PM, blizzardof96 said: Trailing clipper weaker compared to the GGEM at hour 54(0z/16). GEM GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif RGEM GZ_D5_PN_054_0000.gif Trough doesn't look too bad but I'm surprised by the lack of sfc development on the RGEM. The EPS QPF graphic you posted on the last page...we're in between the 0.30-0.35" isohyets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 9:23 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 18z RGEM beyond 48 hours would be more amped than the NAM/GFS/GGEM camp. honestly, I thought the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 9:39 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Trough doesn't look too bad but I'm surprised by the lack of sfc development on the RGEM. The EPS QPF graphic you posted on the last page...we're in between the 0.30-0.35" isohyets? Yep. Right around ~0.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 9:39 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Trough doesn't look too bad but I'm surprised by the lack of sfc development on the RGEM. The EPS QPF graphic you posted on the last page...we're in between the 0.30-0.35" isohyets? agree with this /\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 9:41 PM, buckeye said: honestly, I thought the opposite After seeing the h54 graffic Blizz96 posted, you may be right. The coarse b/w maps may have thrown me off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 gfs has a sharper trough.... i bet it will be a small improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 gfs took a step in the right direction, but you can really see how that kicker screws things up by keeping the trough from going negative.. We need it to slow down or weaken, but if it wasn't there at all the storm would probably cut too far west. top is 12z bottom 18z. Subtle difference but you can see the northern energy is weaker and the southern energy is stronger on the 18z. We are talking subtle, but CMH is close enough that these small trends can make a big difference if they continue, (or fall apart). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 9:52 PM, buckeye said: gfs took a step in the right direction, but you can really see how that kicker screws things up by keeping the trough from going negative.. We need it to slow down or weaken, but if it wasn't there at all the storm would probably cut too far west. Do you remember there used to be a site that housed an 18z UKIE run? Does that still exist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 10:00 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Do you remember there used to be a site that housed an 18z UKIE run? Does that still exist? There was a site that had that. It's no longer up. Last time I heard reference to the 18z ukie, Hoosier pulled it out to support his hopeful storm track and it was determined that it was basically all the same parameters that are run at 12z, just re-ran. That had to be 3 or more years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 DT 1st Guess Map out-4-8 for central OH. WOOOO!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 9:44 PM, buckeye said: agree with this /\I'm afraid this one is mostly over for us in Cincy. Even the northern Euro solution is a cold rain (surface and 925mb temps too warm) The only reason you might have some hope is if the Euro is 100% correct and the timing...You might be able to cool enough to eek out some snow I suppose.Sent from my TF300T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 10:19 PM, pondo1000 said: DT 1st Guess Map out-4-8 for central OH. WOOOO!!!!!!!!! DT has given us more fantasy snow than the gfs this winter. BTW, 18z para gfs is further west than OP gfs, brings light snows to cmh. 1004 low over eastern WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z nogap. It has been trending west since it was completely whiffing us to the east in yesterdays runs. Yea, I know, it's the nogap but the trend and the fact that it's usually flat and progressive might be a small flag for future trends on other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 10:32 PM, wxdudemike said: I'm afraid this one is mostly over for us in Cincy. Even the northern Euro solution is a cold rain (surface and 925mb temps too warm) The only reason you might have some hope is if the Euro is 100% correct and the timing...You might be able to cool enough to eek out some snow I suppose. Sent from my TF300T using Tapatalk ILN says no snow for anyone on Monday, all rain after less than an inch of snow Sunday-Sunday night. They state pretty clearly that there is good agreement on this. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 10:43 PM, jbcmh81 said: ILN says no snow for anyone on Monday, all rain after less than an inch of snow Sunday-Sunday night. They state pretty clearly that there is good agreement on this. ?There is good agreement for the most part on lack of snow. Euro is too warm as I mentioned, UKMET is too warm, and the NAM/GFS/CMC all wiff.Sent from my TF300T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 DT's map is just plain stupid, 4-8 in Cleveland? Yeah right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 10:51 PM, wxdudemike said: There is good agreement for the most part on lack of snow. Euro is too warm as I mentioned, UKMET is too warm, and the NAM/GFS/CMC all wiff. Sent from my TF300T using Tapatalk it's a bad set up in a what's been a terrible winter. But bad is better than terrible, so I'm in until all the models either show a whiff, and if they don't, then I'm in until the radar turns green. I mean c'mon, it's not like it's been a banner winter and we've earned the right to snub our noses at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 10:57 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: DT's map is just plain stupid, 4-8 in Cleveland? Yeah right.Yeah clearly little effort (or thought) put into that forecast. Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 9:36 PM, snowstormcanuck said: I love the 18z NAM. Kicker is kept in check but still no dice with the main storm. Canuck do you think the Tuesday-Wednesday storm will be a total miss for us? The 18z GFS certainly thinks so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 11:36 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Canuck do you think the Tuesday-Wednesday storm will be a total miss for us? The 18z GFS certainly thinks so. Probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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