OHweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The cold looks to relax next week as a trough develops across the Plains and moves east. Heights rising on the East Coast will give any storm that may develop with the trough some room to cut. Lots of model disagreement, but the ECM ensemble mean has the trough taking on a negative tilt as it crosses the Mississippi which along with the blocking weakening may be enough to allow for a storm west of the Appalachians if all goes well. It's a bit early for a thread and I'm still rather lukewarm on this but apparently I have the "hot hand" for magically reeling in snow for southern OH so I'm going to start this thread and see if I can pass the luck onto others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Maybe not if we're going to discuss this threat in the clipper thread instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 If the Euro solution holds this is a whole other ballgame. Not a clipper but a genuine "storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 9:36 PM, vespasian70 said: If the Euro solution holds this is a whole other ballgame. Not a clipper but a genuine "storm".Agreed, but maybe wet & not white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 12Z GFS did have a system during this time frame in the form of another clipper. So their is a potential the models are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 9:51 PM, pondo1000 said: Agreed, but maybe wet & not white. Yeah, we're always riding the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 ...here it is on the 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 10:50 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: ...here it is on the 18Z GFS Wrong storm. It's been off the GFS for a few days now. The storm for this thread is prominent on the Euro and UKMET as a southern low phasing with the clipper for the 14th-15th thread. The 18z GFS was better than prior runs. Slowly coming back around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Ok i'm confused. Do we have 2 threads for the same storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 11:24 PM, snowlover2 said: Ok i'm confused. Do we have 2 threads for the same storm? The other thread was created first for the clipper portion which seems to be a lock, strength TBD. This thread is for the potential "storm" that is showing on the Euro and UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 THE ohio state. Slaps forehead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/10/2016 at 11:30 PM, osubrett2 said: The other thread was created first for the clipper portion which seems to be a lock, strength TBD. This thread is for the potential "storm" that is showing on the Euro and UK. the 18z gfs (for the first time) has finally found the southern storm. Too far south and east for us as depicted, but I suspect the gfs will do it's usual stronger and further north adjustment with upcoming runs. The euro ens were south and east of the OP, but still had a nice hit for OH. The control run actually looked more like the ukmet than the euro OP, with a fairly deep storm to the WV/V border. FWIW, the jma also has a strong storm but it is too far east for us and would be an Appalachian crusher. What I don't like about this set up is the evacuation of the cold air as the storm starts gaining latitude. No blocking whatsoever, no reinforcing high to the north, and the WTOD would have zero resistance if the low comes too far north. As of right now though, it still looks like most models have plenty of room to move this thing north, (except for the euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 12:08 AM, buckeye said: the 18z gfs (for the first time) has finally found the southern storm. Too far south and east for us as depicted, but I suspect the gfs will do it's usual stronger and further north adjustment with upcoming runs. The euro ens were south and east of the OP, but still had a nice hit for OH. The control run actually looked more like the ukmet than the euro OP, with a fairly deep storm to the WV/V border. FWIW, the jma also has a strong storm but it is too far east for us and would be an Appalachian crusher. What I don't like about this set up is the evacuation of the cold air as the storm starts gaining latitude. No blocking whatsoever, no reinforcing high to the north, and the WTOD would have zero resistance if the low comes too far north. As of right now though, it still looks like most models have plenty of room to move this thing north, (except for the euro). Live by the High, die by the High. If there was a strong reinforcing cold High pushing in, it would probably squash the thing to our south & we'd be wartching our southern buddies cashing in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Southern stream keeps the snow in basically the same locations. Need a slight shift NW on the GFS to bring the heavier snow into OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Canadian had nice step north from 12z to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro says no to Ohio. Shifts the heavy snow well SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 7:01 AM, vespasian70 said: Euro says no to Ohio. Shifts the heavy snow well SE. I use accuwx pro, but the Euro doesn't update until like 3 am now for some reason. What site do you use? Im looking to possibly switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 7:15 AM, dilly84 said: I use accuwx pro, but the Euro doesn't update until like 3 am now for some reason. What site do you use? Im looking to possibly switch. I don't subscribe to any pay sites. Tropical Tidbits combined with www.yr.no (which uses the Euro for their forecasts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 7:15 AM, dilly84 said: I use accuwx pro, but the Euro doesn't update until like 3 am now for some reason. What site do you use? Im looking to possibly switch.Wx bell!!!But for real Euro is a dream killer. The euro parallel has already been showing this solution so maybe it shouldn't be a surprise. Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Easy come, easy go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 8:31 AM, wxdudemike said: Wx bell!!! But for real Euro is a dream killer. The euro parallel has already been showing this solution so maybe it shouldn't be a surprise. Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk yep. One of the options with this threat was it would turn into a convoluted mess. That really shouldn't be a surprise considering all the other storm threats this winter. If I were strictly a glass half full guy I'd probably use the excuse that the euro suddenly going flat at this timeframe only to turn around is not uncommon. But I'm a realist too, and there's so much stuff going on between the forerunner clipper, the kicker, fast flow and no blocking, that a convoluted mess kind of makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 8:31 AM, wxdudemike said: Wx bell!!! But for real Euro is a dream killer. The euro parallel has already been showing this solution so maybe it shouldn't be a surprise. Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk lol....so I just checked the 00z para and it actually has the storm. Takes the low just a bit east up the apps. Mod hit for southeast OH, Appalachian big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 12:49 PM, buckeye said: lol....so I just checked the 00z para and it actually has the storm. Takes the low just a bit east up the apps. Mod hit for southeast OH, Appalachian big hit. We can't buy a NW trend this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 6z GEFS have a few members showing an Apps runner type storm. But if that's all we have to hang our hat on, it's gonna be tough sledding (literally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 1:09 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 6z GEFS have a few members showing an Apps runner type storm. But if that's all we have to hang our hat on, it's gonna be tough sledding (literally). The EPS has a larger spread(with some big hits). I don't remember an analogous setup that actually delivered around here. Looking for a four corners ridge, trough axis from Lk Mi to NOLA, ATL Can ridge and +NAO March 08 to some extent but not a great match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 2:07 PM, blizzardof96 said: The EPS has a larger spread(with some big hits). I don't remember an analogous setup that actually delivered around here. Looking for a four corners ridge, trough axis from Lk Mi to NOLA, ATL Can ridge and +NAO March 08 to some extent but not a great match. Sad thing is the models have also been trending more ragged with the northern stream portion of the storm. QPF around here keeps getting lighter. At one point it looked like a nice "plan-B" in case a bigger storm failed to develop. btw...the squall in your avatar...what event is that from? December 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 1:09 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 6z GEFS have a few members showing an Apps runner type storm. But if that's all we have to hang our hat on, it's gonna be tough sledding (literally).[/quote We also have a euro ensemble mean to lean on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 2:35 PM, dan123 said: On 2/11/2016 at 1:09 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 6z GEFS have a few members showing an Apps runner type storm. But if that's all we have to hang our hat on, it's gonna be tough sledding (literally).[/quote We also have a euro ensemble mean to lean on. I wouldn't put too much hope in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 2:20 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Sad thing is the models have also been trending more ragged with the northern stream portion of the storm. QPF around here keeps getting lighter. At one point it looked like a nice "plan-B" in case a bigger storm failed to develop. btw...the squall in your avatar...what event is that from? December 2013? I wonder if we should actually root for a weakening of the northern feature. This might allow for more ridging to the east, better digging out west and possibly a stronger, further north second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On 2/11/2016 at 3:07 PM, buckeye said: I wonder if we should actually root for a weakening of the northern feature. This might allow for more ridging to the east, better digging out west and possibly a stronger, further north second storm. We do this or root for it to get stronger and stronger so we at least salvage something. The way this winter is going I am going to say it will weaken, but still not help us here. Athens, OH will still wind up with 8 inches from this storm though. LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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