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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
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For those that have access to the information, what points North and West stay all snow on both the GFS and the Euro?  I can really only see the GFS and it looks like Faifax is the cutoff point. 

It's really too early to discern that imo. I'll pm you the answer for the specific run. ;)

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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Hey Bob or anyone else who has EPS individuals...Do any show a snowstorm for us with the follow up wave? 

There may be a few.  I just toggled between day 6 and day 10 and some did show a noticeable increase in snow totals.  The mean showed very little difference from day 6 to day 10.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

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There may be a few.  I just toggled between day 6 and day 10 and some did show a noticeable increase in snow totals.  The mean showed very little difference from day 6 to day 10.

 

Hey Bob or anyone else who has EPS individuals...Do any show a snowstorm for us with the follow up wave? 

I think most pop a couple inches near the city with some total misses but only a clearly has us in pink unfortunately.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

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Parallel Euro shows the max stripe of snow more north and west of the op.  North and west of even my location.  I can't tell if that's due to a different storm track, or a weaker storm in general with the increase in snow being due only to upslope to the west.

That's why I was wondering about surface temps. The euro para would be an ugly result.

 

eta: Para has a much stronger system and the coc tracks very near dca

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Parallel Euro shows the max stripe of snow more north and west of the op. North and west of even my location. I can't tell if that's due to a different storm track, or a weaker storm in general with the increase in snow being due only to upslope to the west.

I think it's a little slower so warmer.

Hberg, there's a few in the mix but not much of a signal. Hard to get interested either way. The mon-tues storm sets the table one way or the other and that's only just now coming into better focus.

I don't have much to add from what's been posted about the euro. Op looks good but it can easily become bad with small adjustments. I'm rooting for speed. Get precip here as soon as possible. That seems to be the most imortant piece right now.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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I think it's a little slower so warmer.

Hberg, there's a few in the mix but not much of a signal. Hard to get interested either way. The mon-tues storm sets the table one way or the other and that's only just now coming into better focus.

I don't have much to add from what's been posted about the euro. Op looks good but it can easily become bad with small adjustments. I'm rooting for speed. Get precip here as soon as possible. That seems to be the most imortant piece right now.

 

Seems that often happens too.......earlier than modeled.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
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For those that have access to the information, what points North and West stay all snow on both the GFS and the Euro?  I can really only see the GFS and it looks like Faifax is the cutoff point. 

 

specifics like this will change the next few days, but:

 

Euro is pretty cold throughout, at the surface. 850 temps however go above freezing Monday night into Tuesday suggesting some of the precip could fall as sleet or ice. Bulk of the precip looks to come in overnight Monday/Tuesday, which definitely helps, but those 850s are going to cause problems for anyone wanting to see all snow.

 

GFS is a touch warmer at the surface, and 850 level. DC is 33 at 7am per 06z GFS, and +2-3 at 850 by the afternoon. 

 

Looks messy right now, snow, sleet, maybe ice, rain... again, these details will work itself out as we get closer, and will be completely dependent on the location of the low. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Seems that often happens too.......earlier than modeled.

Especially because this is a fast/progressive setup. And agree on temps. Get clouds and precip going with temps in the low 20's and the surface will put up a fight.

EPS seems to favor an overhead track in general. I think rain is almost a given around here. You could walk away a pretty big winner if it breaks right.

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RichmondTarHeel

RichmondTarHeel

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specifics like this will change the next few days, but:

 

Euro is pretty cold throughout, at the surface. 850 temps however go above freezing Monday night into Tuesday suggesting some of the precip could fall as sleet or ice. Bulk of the precip looks to come in overnight Monday/Tuesday, which definitely helps, but those 850s are going to cause problems for anyone wanting to see all snow.

 

GFS is a touch warmer at the surface, and 850 level. DC is 33 at 7am per 06z GFS, and +2-3 at 850 by the afternoon. 

 

Looks messy right now, snow, sleet, maybe ice, rain... again, these details will work itself out as we get closer, and will be completely dependent on the location of the low. 

 

Thanks for the info mappy.  Sounds like everyone should be pretty good at the surface, just need to watch those 850s.  I'm from the piedmont of NC.  I don't like ice all that much. 

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BTRWx

BTRWx

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I still think models tend to warm up too fast after a really cold outbreak.  I know nothing is ever 100% but in my view it often seems that they get colder as we get closer most of the time.

 

I'm hoping for a wet bomb personally...........with fingers crossed on temps.

Good point. Whether a leading air mass is colder or warmer than a system, it does indeed have big implications for any trailing system!

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
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specifics like this will change the next few days, but:

 

Euro is pretty cold throughout, at the surface. 850 temps however go above freezing Monday night into Tuesday suggesting some of the precip could fall as sleet or ice. Bulk of the precip looks to come in overnight Monday/Tuesday, which definitely helps, but those 850s are going to cause problems for anyone wanting to see all snow.

 

GFS is a touch warmer at the surface, and 850 level. DC is 33 at 7am per 06z GFS, and +2-3 at 850 by the afternoon. 

 

Looks messy right now, snow, sleet, maybe ice, rain... again, these details will work itself out as we get closer, and will be completely dependent on the location of the low. 

Good post

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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I'm probably going to take a simpleton approach the next couple days and track onset time and not over analyze track. A fast west or overhead track is probably much better than a slow east track and vice versa. Utilizing as much of the departing cold as possible seems like the only way to get half decent snows.

Some sort of inland track is showing a much stronger signal than just off the coast like the gfs op has shown the last few runs.

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HighStakes

HighStakes

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I'm probably going to take a simpleton approach the next couple days and track onset time and not over analyze track. A fast west or overhead track is probably much better than a slow east track and vice versa. Utilizing as much of the departing cold as possible seems like the only way to get half decent snows.

Some sort of inland track is showing a much stronger signal than just off the coast like the gfs op has shown the last few runs.

An ideal situation is to get the precip in here as fast as possible. What I liked about last night's Euro was how quickly snow spreads through the area and the storm moves fast. In a perfect world we get 4-8 ending as some drizzle over a 12 hour period. a longer duration event definitely invites more rain in the scenario.

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Scraff

Scraff

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We're almost certainly going to get some epic nam'ings this weekend. That should keep spirits up even if fiction

Serious question. Has the Nam ever really been useful Bob? Aside from spiritual upliftings or pure comedy, when can it actually be taken seriously...if ever.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Parallel euro supports the op for the most part. Only difference is it is a little slower, so the snow thump is more on the order of 2-4" and we get more plain rain after the flip. Will be interesting to watch today where this thing trends.

para is similar to 120 hours then it bombs the low and cuts it due north so after a 2-4" waa snow we go to a driving rainstorm. At this range it's noise though. The idea of a front end thump is there then we want a more progressive trough to shove the slp east befire it starts to cut due north.
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BTRWx

BTRWx

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Serious question. Has the Nam ever really been useful Bob? Aside from spiritual upliftings or pure comedy, when can it actually be taken seriously...if ever.

If I remember correctly, the NAM can be the model of choice for cad signatures every so often.

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