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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

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If you're referring to the Ohio Blizzard/Cleveland Superbomb of Jan. 26-27, 1978...that set low pressure records across the state of OH (and elsewhere) as it moved north from the Gulf states, to the Ohio River, to essentially right over Cleveland, and on up north into Canada.  In many cases, it blew away the previous records.  KCLE's pressure was officially 28.28 inches (~957 mb) as that bomb went overhead.  That number is indelibly imprinted in my mind, as I was there at the time.  I believe that still stands as the 2nd(?) lowest pressure recorded in the CONUS from a non-tropical storm.

Yes and thanks

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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21z SREFs still don't have a set MSLP at all, even at the end of its run... so that would be a nod in the GFS/NAM/GGEM direction I believe

Maybe so, and I know there can be wild variances in the members, but 21z is much wetter at 81 than 15z was at 87 (24 hr totals). There have to be some amped up members in there.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

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Every once in a blue moon 18z gfs is a trendsetter. I can't remember which storm last year or maybe 14 but 18z gfs pulled the rug and we were all trying to toss it until 0z confirmed it. In this case it isn't a rug puller for us city and burbs folks.

With that being said the run was pretty suspect and out of the blue. I'll gladly take the 3" the euro twin gave me and pad some stats.

 

Not sure of this, but I think the storm last year that you might mean is the one right around the Super Bowl.  Things looked good for awhile for us for a solid event area-wide.  The 18Z GFS ops actually was still good...but I distinctly remember you then saying "Guys, don't look at the 18Z ensembles!", and sure enough, the ensembles raised a lot of red flags in a negative way for us.  Then the 00Z suite then came in going well north of us.  In the end, SNE got hammered pretty well, and we got some light rain.

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Ian

Ian

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I thought the same. As I understand it the initial conditions that 18z was based on are the conditions that are perturbed for the ens members? Is that correct?

I think so in general though I am not positive. Often you do see ens swing with the op though. The GFS had a huge change run to run. It might be right but for now I'm not sure how it's viewed as anything but a blip until proven otherwise. If 0z looks the same then it might be onto something.

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66degreesnorth

66degreesnorth

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Not sure of this, but I think the storm last year that you might mean is the one right around the Super Bowl. Things looked good for awhile for us for a solid event area-wide. The 18Z GFS ops actually was still good...but I distinctly remember you then saying "Guys, don't look at the 18Z ensembles!", and sure enough, the ensembles raised a lot of red flags in a negative way for us. Then the 00Z suite then came in going well north of us. In the end, SNE got hammered pretty well, and we got some light rain.

Yep that's right. And the 0Z model that started off the bloodletting was the 0Z nam, and then the rest followed suit.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

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Ji

Ji

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Not sure of this, but I think the storm last year that you might mean is the one right around the Super Bowl.  Things looked good for awhile for us for a solid event area-wide.  The 18Z GFS ops actually was still good...but I distinctly remember you then saying "Guys, don't look at the 18Z ensembles!", and sure enough, the ensembles raised a lot of red flags in a negative way for us.  Then the 00Z suite then came in going well north of us.  In the end, SNE got hammered pretty well, and we got some light rain.

that was so depressing. I remember that. The euro gave us 6 inches of snow too...3 days out. We got 6 flakes

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Ji

Ji

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I think so in general though I am not positive. Often you do see ens swing with the op though. The GFS had a huge change run to run. It might be right but for now I'm not sure how it's viewed as anything but a blip until proven otherwise. If 0z looks the same then it might be onto something.

somone said the cras was not amplified. Thats probably the biggest red flag ever for the euro haha

 

edit: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/fp0_084.html

 

usually, this would be a like a 973 low

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

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18z GFS certainly was an outlier, but GFS has trended to a weaker vort for each run in the last 24 hours. 

 

That's a good point, and I wonder what it "sees", so to speak, while the Euro is so vastly different.  I'm sure some of that must be the wave behind it and whatever (if any) interactions are occurring.  The GFS was weaker with it a few days ago, too (more northern stream-ish, I believe).

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

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It torched that day. We never got cold enough. I totally blocked that traumatic memory out of my mind until now.

 

Sorry about that!  I never saw so much as a flake, either.  It still burns me as well to this day to some extent, kind of like March 2013 (oops, didn't mean to mention that one too!).  Thank goodness the next 4 weeks after that early February disaster made up for it.

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Ji

Ji

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Sorry about that!  I never saw so much as a flake, either.  It still burns me as well to this day to some extent, kind of like March 2013 (oops, didn't mean to mention that one too!).  Thank goodness the next 4 weeks after that early February disaster made up for it.

it actually started off as a brief period of snow and sleet but then changed to a dry rain. Awful event because it felt like it would never snow that winter

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