#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[BTRWx]

"NAM" and "FTW" should almost never be in the same sentence, no?

only for cad

[SnowGoose69]

I would be wary of the idea the GFS could be right only because it's solution is totally a result of that northern Stream energy and the euro occasionally misses northern stream influences that the GFS does not

[MacintoshPro]

only for cad

 

I'm sure somebody said it in the late hours of Jan 23rd, 2016 in NYC, no?  

 

But the original post has been deleted. Ian was fair enough.

[dailylurker]

We know as much about this storm as we did last Friday lol.

[Deck Pic]

Today is one of those days where I wished the euro had an 18z run

 

FYP

 

I'll go with blip until there's more company. Weird run.

 

Even with all the divergence and run to run inconsistency, I'm not sure we're in a different place than we were 24-36 hours ago in terms of an over/under for snow.  I'd say 2" is still a good over/under for DC proper in terms of front end.  I'd probably take the over, but I might be weenie-ing out more than I should.  

[Ian]

I'm sure somebody said it in the late hours of Jan 23rd, 2016 in NYC, no?

 

But the original post has been deleted. Ian was fair enough.

I didn't delete it but proclaiming a model that sucks at this stuff as winning 3-4 days out seems premature.

[Warm Nose]

Well, one model is going to have is noise bloodied after this storm.

[MacintoshPro]

I didn't delete it but proclaiming a model that sucks at this stuff as winning 3-4 days out seems premature.

 

 

sorry if not clear. I deleted it. and like I said, you were fair enough. That wasn't meant to be sarcastic.

[Ian]

Even with all the divergence and run to run inconsistency, I'm not sure we're in a different place than we were 24-36 hours ago in terms of an over/under for snow.  I'd say 2" is still a good over/under for DC proper in terms of front end.  I'd probably take the over, but I might be weenie-ing out more than I should.  

Yeah, seems about right. I feel like I've devoted too much time to it whatever happens at this point.

[Deck Pic]

Yeah, seems about right. I feel like I've devoted too much time to it whatever happens at this point.

 

Take a break until Sunday...I'm not sure we're going to get great clarity until the last minute

[Grothar of Herndon]

The sharp cut off for WinterWxLuvr and crew is painful.

 

[Ji]

Take a break until Sunday...I'm not sure we're going to get great clarity until the last minute

see you at 9:30pm

[clueless]

Matt is right.  DC can get 2 inches and everything else will be washed away soon enough.  This GFS run made everything pretty interesting despite the end result.  Fun model watching.

[clueless]

 

The sharp cut off for WinterWxLuvr and crew is painful.

 

 

 

One needs to be strong in these times.

[clskinsfan]

If this run verifies, I'll get banned.

 

Me too. If it trends any further there will be no SW at all.

[Bob Chill]

Para euro is similar track to the op in our parts but heads right up to the ny/VT border. In general it's east of the op but the only difference for us is better front end stuff. 2" line just east of 95 and 5" in FDK. DC gets 2.5" but the zoomed panels aren't in yet so that could be inaccurate.

[Ian]

Para euro is similar track to the op in our parts but heads right up to the ny/VT border. In general it's east of the op but the only difference for us is better front end stuff. 2" line just east of 95 and 5" in FDK. DC gets 2.5" but the zoomed panels aren't in yet so that could be inaccurate.

Kinda like the euro ens mean. The track to the lakes is definitely questionable on the op.

[Bob Chill]

Kinda like the euro ens mean. The track to the lakes is definitely questionable on the op.

They don't diverge much until d3-4 from what I've seen and even then it's not world's apart. Makes sense. The new euro is mostly a resolution upgrade from what I've read and not groundbreaking new physics and stuff.

I wonder if the high resolution is going to cause more jumpiness in the later periods. Seemed to with the gfs when it was upgraded. But we shouldn't be using ops as skilled tools d6+ anyways.

[Wonderdog]

The GFS kinda looks like the good 00z euro run from a few nights ago.  6 inches of snow then ice/rain to dry without a deluge.  

What I thought it looked like was the 18z run on Wed. night but I could be mistaken.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The sharp cut off for WinterWxLuvr and crew is painful.

Thanks, but that's our burden out here. You guys fight the temps a lot. There really aren't many places in our region that are really solid. Perhaps Md north of Frederick and Balt and of course west of the Allegheny front.

[Wonderdog]

Question to an expert. Is the difference at the 500 level between 12z and 18z plausible?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Gefs doesn't appear to line up with op very well. That's a quick glance.

[Bob Chill]

Gefs doesn't appear to line up with op very well. That's a quick glance.

It's so muddy it's hard to tell. Seems like it's improved for snow in the metros.

As far as strength and track goes...I can't really tell. Seems like an equal split of rainy strong and colder weak. I'm at a loss...

[WinterWxLuvr]

It's so muddy it's hard to tell. Seems like it's improved for snow in the metros.

As far as strength and track goes...I can't really tell. Seems like an equal split of rainy strong and colder weak. I'm at a loss...

Looked like 2 or 3 that lined up better with the euro.

I want a wet bomb. I'm making no secret of it. Even if we flip but don't warm more than 30's it would be a tough battle to melt all of a good thump.

[Amped]

Looked like 2 or 3 that lined up better with the euro.

I want a wet bomb. I'm making no secret of it. Even if we flip but don't warm more than 30's it would be a tough battle to melt all of a good thump.

There was 1 suppressed at 12z.  It's a major shift if half of them are now.

[Bob Chill]

There was 1 suppressed at 12z. It's a major shift if half of them are now.

After a second look there is definitely a marked increase in the weaker/souther/easter solutions. The plot thickens.

[WEATHER53]

Last time I saw a 28.90 in Ohio valley was 1978 I think so the roaring monster to our west always was a bad idea

The arctic high will be leaving but that 1030 in western lakes seems to want to exert ese and thst will continue a push east of the low. I do not believe we can stay all snow but right now I think the low will go right over DC

[Ian]

After a second look there is definitely a marked increase in the weaker/souther/easter solutions. The plot thickens.

Whatever happened to 18z may have impacted ens as well. Until 0z shows the same not sure any of it matters too much.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Last time I saw a 28.90 in Ohio valley was 1978 I think so the roaring monster to our west always was a bad idea

The arctic high will be leaving but that 1030 in western lakes seems to want to exert ese and thst will continue a push east of the low. I do not believe we can stay all snow but right now I think the low will go right over DC

 

If you're referring to the Ohio Blizzard/Cleveland Superbomb of Jan. 26-27, 1978...that set low pressure records across the state of OH (and elsewhere) as it moved north from the Gulf states, to the Ohio River, to essentially right over Cleveland, and on up north into Canada.  In many cases, it blew away the previous records.  KCLE's pressure was officially 28.28 inches (~957 mb) as that bomb went overhead.  That number is indelibly imprinted in my mind, as I was there at the time.  I believe that still stands as the 2nd(?) lowest pressure recorded in the CONUS from a non-tropical storm.

[Bob Chill]

Whatever happened to 18z may have impacted ens as well. Until 0z shows the same not sure any of it matters too much.

Every once in a blue moon 18z gfs is a trendsetter. I can't remember which storm last year or maybe 14 but 18z gfs pulled the rug and we were all trying to toss it until 0z confirmed it. In this case it isn't a rug puller for us city and burbs folks.

With that being said the run was pretty suspect and out of the blue. I'll gladly take the 3" the euro twin gave me and pad some stats.