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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Looking at the low plots on eps I count 18 that track to our east some pretty Far East. The rest are some variation of cutting over or to our west. That 2/3 have a greater spread but seems due to them really varying on how amped and how far west to cut. Some are nuts. But that 1/3 that are east is a big enough contingent to keep me interested a while longer.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

I think the outcome will be a weak system tracking about up the I-95 which could lead to freezing rain being a component especially in valleys west of DC. No real phase with the Lakes system until near northern NJ, outcome for DC and BAL likely to be a mixed bag of sleet, freezing rain, cold rain, back to perhaps sleet then snow on the backside, total amounts something like .40 liquid and 0.5 inch snowfalls. Anywhere south of the track likely to see max temps in high 40s to low 50s and a lot of fog, light rain. Well to the north of the track but still in this forum a few might see 1-2 inches of snow at either end with sleet and freezing rain and not much unfrozen precip.

 

At least there is still some chance of a good last minute outcome since weak means no flooding of warmer air into the region and that combined with any shift of track to coast with more intense trend could be the key to 3-5 inches of snow. But that's more likely to be up around ABE-BGM-ALB on this current evolution.

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kurtstack

kurtstack

Posted
Posted

EPS is saying west track. No other way to interpret it.

attachicon.giflowloc.JPG

to me it looks like the eps is showing two camps - a phased amped cluster and a weak non-phased camp with it leaning toward phased about 60/40. im guessing the non phased weak low members show more snow as they wont have 60mph southerlies lol.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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Generally speaking yea, but then the strongest one on the map is off Hatteras...wth? One western 986 outlier over E KY

Not sure I see that unless you're referring to the outliers.. there's one strong one way early and one way late in that area. Both seem unlikely.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

NAM Is a slight cut down on snow totals but that seems rather insignificant as it still keeps the eastern track. I really dislike it at the end of its run.... Upper level temps are above freezing but 95 west is probably being iced over.

It should be a NAMing imo.

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cae

cae

Posted
Posted

Yeah I remember that. I think it was like 2 or 3 years ago it seemed the GGEM did OK and everyone was really into it. I barely looked at it at that point but have pretty consistently since and I am having trouble remembering a storm it "won."

 

At any given time, all of models (especially the top 4 globals) give us some useful information. Consider the below quotes from the 12z runs on January 15th.

 

EURO wants nothing to do with the Friday event still....

 

 

Well looks like the GGEM still likes some form of a storm for late week.   But it's the GGEM.  

 

Turns out that we did get a storm the next Friday after all.  The NYC debacle last year was another storm that the GGEM arguably "won".  It did well throughout the event, and the RGEM did very well, while the Euro struggled.

 

The Euro is usually a better bet than the GGEM, but of course it's not always right.  I've noticed that some of the loudest GGEM critics are people who follow weather all year long, and I wonder if this is because the GGEM is a realtively weaker summer model.  Here are the NH H500 verification scores for the last couple decades:

YyTcGBe.png

There's a pretty clear seasonal pattern to the GGEM in recent years.  It's close to the GFS in the winter, and not so close in the summer.

 

FWIW, I expect that we'll once again see some blend of solutions, probably similar to the UKMET.  I know that's not what everyone wants to hear, but the Euro and UKMET are arguably the two best models, and they've been putting out a pretty strong signal that the GFS and GGEM are too far to the east.  But the GFS, GGEM, and UKMET make me suspect the Euro is too far west.

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