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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

This has become more flawed then a week ago when there was a suggestion of just a bit of ridging into or east of Greenland, just enough to slow the cold retreat. Plus the location of the high was better coming across the U.S. canada border his allowing a system to develop under it. By tracking across barely to our north it must get pushed out before anything can develop. I see that as the bigger issue not timing. On the plus side we will have cold in place ahead and that gives us more wiggle room and models can be off on that from this far out. Plus they are still all over not locked into a solution so I will reserve any judgement on this until they start to converge on something. I still think the warm up after is transient and we get one more reload late feb into March.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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Way more than several from what I see, it's more the case of several that are as bad as the Op. It's mostly a speed issue with the bad Euro members, they are much slower and hence the cold air erodes and the system is warmer and or can go more amped

flip the causation though. The more amped probably means th trough is digging more so less progressive and thus slower.
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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12Z euro ensemble mean yesterday gave me 2" for yesterday. Just sayin'.

the pessimist that I am I look at tools like that as when they look good it's no guaruntee of anything except it's better then them looking bad.

ETA: to put it another way, when the ens are awful across the board we are always pretty much screwed. If there is a shot with so many runs between the gefs and eps enough will sniff it out to at least offer the suggestion of hope. When they are good it just means we are still in the game.

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted

Thanks.  That makes perfect sense actually, how you described it (since I'm not looking at the individual members here!).  I guess it's good that way more than several might at least give us hope of a decent front end.  I think we're all well aware this will be a very imperfect setup and we're almost certainly looking at a changover to rain (or to sleet/ice, then rain).  The key is to not end up with as much of a washout after a change, and to maximize the snow if we at all can.

 

And to add...Yoda, that sounds pretty decent (relatively) if that many members are giving 2"+ over the DC area.  I believe that is better than 00Z or even yesterday?

Maybe I'm too optimistic but I thought a good percentage individual members looked real nice as long as expectations are reasonable. If someone is okay with 3-5 inches and maybe more in the favored areas then this storm looks very possible.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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Problem with the thump idea from a track west of us, with all the ridging to our northeast I'm not sure how we get any cold resistance to create the waa thump precip. The cold has to resist some to force the warm up and over and create the lift. If the cold is just racing out that thump will be to our west or north where the cold puts up a fight. Otherwise it's pity flakes to driving rain. We probably need a track to our south to get a thump to ice/rain. We could even live with an inside runner but not an apps runner or cutter.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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12Z euro ensemble mean yesterday gave me 2" for yesterday. Just sayin'.

 

That's not part of why I think they are better. Flip through the members. We're a day closer and many are holding the wedge look. Yes, most are a flip to rain but I expect that at best anyways. A clean snow this is not unless it's a weak and quick hitter. 

 

Some even have a weak but reinforcing HP to our north even though the big cold hp has slipped offshore. Also, the # of members with ok snow to the east of DC has gone up by a little. Combine all this with some excellent posts from the red tags about lower resolution ensemble members (and even ops at range) will be too quick to eat the wedge make this particular run more encouraging than discouraging. 

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Joshfsu123

Joshfsu123

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It comes on Tuesday and early enough for the cold air to still be in place for the first part of the storm... could be a great run if the CAD stays intact longer... the GFS para also has the disturbance on Thursday, which slides just to the south of DC through central VA with the 850 line well to the south.

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Ian

Ian

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I counted 20 2"+ and 3 sig snow for DC on 12z. I think further out it includes stuff that's not the storm. Event thru 180 some look like different events than shown on ops/mean. Signal is clearly an elevation event on 12z either way.

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Ian

Ian

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i was trying to figure out how e34 gave us 35 inches of snow. Its from a storm that follows the PD storm LOL

Yeah it cuts the first one well west then bombs another that stalls off the Delmarva.

 

lVivYiH.png

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