#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[mdsnowlover]

The way everything else moved today, along with the idea that as we get closer maybe it sees the effect of the cold better, I really did think it would show at least some improvement, and instead it took a dump all over us.  I am shocked it is this bad, and also this divergent from other guidance.  It looks like a totally different storm then the one on the GGEM/GFS.  A warm amped up rain storm all the way to NW PA at the same time we are snowing on some other guidance and were not 7 days away anymore.  Euro does tend to over amp sometimes but either the GGEM/GFS are really missing something or the euro is. 

we'll find out soon enough ty sir

[Warm Nose]

Look away, I'm hideous

[BTRWx]

storm gets so strong it kills the back side vort

double screwgy

How strong are the winds?

[psuhoffman]

Seemed to cross my imaginary west goal post so I'm pretty surprised at the run as well. Definitely not going to toss it though. Could easily be right in a general more warm, wet, and west track than the gfs/cmc's idea. Heh. We do fail biters well here. 

kinda a scary thought but recently we seem to either jackpot or fail a LOT in the DC/Baltimore corridor.  Since this is not looking like a jackpot we can guess which way to lean with the smart money.

[clueless]

Euro is pushing temps to near 60 on the eastern shore and se va

 

 

Chase this one to the E. Shore, have a couple margaritas, then home.  When 18z GFS caves we can put this one to bed. 

 

Rain obs.  Yay.

[psuhoffman]

I think ORH nailed why this run is so ugly:

yep, its about phasing.  We want the unphased somewhat sheared system at least initially. Once it gets east of our latitude it can go Ape *$% if it wants but a phase back in the TN valley is a fail for us.  Once this starts to deepen it will cut north pretty fast with all that ridging in front of it. 

[Kat]

Look away, I'm hideous

[/quote

That's a horror show.

[BTRWx]

Instead of central AL from 0Z the coc is over northern AL 0Z Tues

[psuhoffman]

I mean, like I said he's pretty objective and not some weenie, so I am interested in his thoughts.   He's just suspicious because every piece of guidance is sort of south/suppressed a bit and the Euro is on it's own (although I think the UKMET was wrapped too).    I'm just the messenger folks

my take on the UK was it was somewhere half way in between this euro run and the GGEM/GFS idea.  Actually to be fair we have a steady spread with GGEM most east followed by GFS/UK/Euro.  We want the GGEM, can live with the GFS, and the UK and  Euro are pretty ugly. 

[nflwxman]

Thanks for the relay Randy.  Nice to get his input.  I won't dismiss the euro so easily, but what he said made me think back storm to storm the last 2 winters at least, and when I go back over them storm by storm, (at least the ones i can remember) yea the euro was pretty bad at least for a few runs at some point in the days leading up to them.  Still, its not like its just a little off...its WAY off...and it gives me pause that usually a compromise when you get something like this is the way to go, but a compromise here really doesnt work for us.  We dont have much wiggle room for any west adjustment from the GFS/GGEM.  Still its possible the euro over phases the northern branch and that one thing leads it way off course. 

 

The difference here is that since there is no block in place, miles between a full phase and partial phase means hundreds of miles in latitude.

[BTRWx]

Remember, the para euro was much faster with the entire flow throughout he event.

[psuhoffman]

Yeah, like when it gave me 6" for the blizzard.  It only missed by 33".

 

Not bad.

yea, going back a while its had some big fails... It was most amped with the March 14 storm, I know because it had a 20" run for where I was in PA that year and we got the big goose egg.  Then last year the NYC mega bust of course.  It was pretty late to the party with the Feb 22 and March 4 storms.  This year it was awful compared to the other globals with the blizzard, had 2 runs that gave me nothing or a few inches.  It was WAY off with the last storm, consistently had me getting nothing while the GFS/GGEM were at least hinting at something up here.  I know it was a bust in DC/Balt but I did end up with 9".   I am NOT throwing it out, its still useful guidance but it doesn't seem to be the rock it once was.  Just ask DT if all of his Aleets have worked out lately

[nflwxman]

yea, going back a while its had some big fails... It was most amped with the March 14 storm, I know because it had a 20" run for where I was in PA that year and we got the big goose egg.  Then last year the NYC mega bust of course.  It was pretty late to the party with the Feb 22 and March 4 storms.  This year it was awful compared to the other globals with the blizzard, had 2 runs that gave me nothing or a few inches.  It was WAY off with the last storm, consistently had me getting nothing while the GFS/GGEM were at least hinting at something up here.  I know it was a bust in DC/Balt but I did end up with 9".   I am NOT throwing it out, its still useful guidance but it doesn't seem to be the rock it once was.  Just ask DT if all of his Aleets have worked out lately

 

It also had a run, no more than 90 hours out in which it gave Richmond 33" of snow.

[psuhoffman]

we'll find out soon enough ty sir

yea but isnt a lot of the fun and draw of this obsession trying to figure it out before we "know".  The challenge of it is part of the allure. 

[psuhoffman]

It also had a run, no more than 90 hours out in which it gave Richmond 33" of snow.

That was the run that was about 30" short of reality in my area. 

[Bob Chill]

.   I am NOT throwing it out, its still useful guidance but it doesn't seem to be the rock it once was. 

 

Right or wrong it's being a rock right now with a decided west track. It's not wavering from that idea at all. As you said earlier, even a gfs-cmc/euro compromise won't get the job done. 

 

I've always expected rain in my yard either way. What I really didn't like (and hope is wrong) is the drier front side solution than the euro. 

[mattskiva]

It also had a run, no more than 90 hours out in which it gave Richmond 33" of snow.

 

Well, that alone should have been enough to completely discount it.

[mdsnowlover]

yea but isnt a lot of the fun and draw of this obsession trying to figure it out before we "know".  The challenge of it is part of the allure. 

yes for you all very true, for me not so much any more, gettin kinda old hoffman, 

[psuhoffman]

after that horror show we need some good news... GGEM mean snowfall

[HighStakes]

That was the run that was about 30" short of reality in my area. 

It was the Tuesday 12z run that showed that scenario. It was way south. Then it was real funky on the 0z friday run with what it did what the low. However if I remember correctly it was good with picking up the Winchester bullseye. 

 

This past storm was not it's finest hour either. It gave our area .25  total QPF the run right before the snow started at on the 0z tuesday run. That is awful for any model right before a storm begins.

[Ji]

100 chance euro is way wrong

[Windman18]

Will be interesting to see whether the euro ensembles have the early phase or if they look more like the gfs. Hopefully the op was just on the western edge of the envelope.

[psuhoffman]

Right or wrong it's being a rock right now with a decided west track. It's not wavering from that idea at all. As you said earlier, even a gfs-cmc/euro compromise won't get the job done. 

 

I've always expected rain in my yard either way. What I really didn't like (and hope is wrong) is the drier front side solution than the euro. 

I am not sure we can get a good front runner with the phase idea because once the trough phases to the west the flow ahead of it backs and the ridging goes nuts.  At that point any WAA snows will taper off because there is no resistance from the cold to create the lift.  All the focus becomes to our west at that point.  The more sheared out second system idea is also the one that allows that nice stream of WAA snows up into our area out in front.  I dont think we will get a solution with a good front end dump but still takes a phased bomb to our west.

[psuhoffman]

yes for you all very true, for me not so much any more, gettin kinda old hoffman, 

"old is always 10 years older then you are".  Second favorite quote to live by.  Favorite being "when you die you don't know you're dead so the difficulty is only for others, the same is true when you are stupid".  FWIW I hope you find enjoyment in whatever we get. 

[psuhoffman]

It was the Tuesday 12z run that showed that scenario. It was way south. Then it was real funky on the 0z friday run with what it did what the low. However if I remember correctly it was good with picking up the Winchester bullseye. 

 

This past storm was not it's finest hour either. It gave our area .25  total QPF the run right before the snow started at on the 0z tuesday run. That is awful for any model right before a storm begins.

yea our total qpf had to be over 1" since we lost quite a bit of accumulation that day to warm temps.  Ratios were very low. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I mean, like I said he's pretty objective and not some weenie, so I am interested in his thoughts. He's just suspicious because every piece of guidance is sort of south/suppressed a bit and the Euro is on it's own (although I think the UKMET was wrapped too). I'm just the messenger folks

You know me Randy.....I peruse the CRAS often for kicks and giggles. The fact it is a strung out weak wave that looks to keep us all frozen as opposed to it's usual over amped tightly wrapped up systems might be telling us something. Obviously not verbatim, but 99% of the time it overamplifies these systems....why is it showing this one as a weak strung out slp? I don't think we are any closer to a solution at this hour. I'm leaning front-end thump to heavy rain DC-NYC but who the heck knows at this point?

[stormtracker]

100 chance euro is way wrong

Prob not.  It's hard to bet against it.  I'm pessimistic for sure, but not throwing in the towel.  Realistically, we'll see some snow, maybe 1 to 2" and then a boatload of rain.  It sucks, but I think we're a lock to see a little snow at least.

[stormtracker]

"old is always 10 years older then you are".  Second favorite quote to live by.  Favorite being "when you die you don't know you're dead so the difficulty is only for others, the same is true when you are stupid".  FWIW I hope you find enjoyment in whatever we get. 

gonna borrow that one for PR.

[Ian]

Prob not.  It's hard to bet against it.  I'm pessimistic for sure, but not throwing in the towel.  Realistically, we'll see some snow, maybe 1 to 2" and then a boatload of rain.  It sucks, but I think we're a lock to see a little snow at least.

It might be too far west but it is hard to bet against it. I do kind of doubt the low will punch through central PA and toward the lakes. But an I95 track doesn't change much for us.

[TowsonWeather]

gonna borrow that one for PR.

 

Randy, here's a sciencey version of that phenomenon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect