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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Joshfsu123

Joshfsu123

Posted
Posted

So NAM/GFS/GGEM have a good front-end thump of 4-8 inches for DC area... nice to see. Getting closer to the event now (within 72-96 hours) so hopefully the models are starting to catch on to a stronger front end, a weaker SLP overall with a east track, and the CAD over the area.

 

I'm fine with any snow at the beginning. Still, would be nice to have a few runs in a row show the same thing.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

Here was our original bet

 

Bob Chill, on 28 Jan 2016 - 8:03 PM, said:snapback.png

I'll take the other side (70% chance we won't), but will still root for snow and hope to be proven wrong.

 

Then I posted:

"To clarify, you said a 70% of a 2-4"/3-6" event occurring by 2/15 and I took the other side. But that means we're both saying a 30% chance of failing. IOW, you think there's twice as much of a chance that it happens and I say twice as much of a chance of not happening, but neither of us rule it out completely. See how mets can get away with claiming victory even when they're wrong?  lol"

 

So IF it snows on 2/15, was my 2 out of 3 chances of not reaching it a better or worse call?

 

We don't have to answer that now, but this run of the GFS says maybe 2" doesn't fall before 2/16 at BWI    lol

MON 18Z 15-FEB  -1.6    -6.2    1028      86      98    0.06     554     531    TUE 00Z 16-FEB  -0.4    -1.0    1025      96     100    0.22     556     536    TUE 06Z 16-FEB   2.8     2.4    1016     100      93    0.21     555     543

Oh, the suspense!

I would never make a bet with Bob Chill like that! :P

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

I would never make a bet with Bob Chill like that! :P

I'd do that bet again seeing what I saw. I think it was a darn good call on my part to be honest. Considering what the "models" were showing then and the fact that BWI has recorded .4" snow since 1/28/16, and that I still said there was a 30% chance a storm with 2" could occur, what more can anyone ask for with a 17 day call?

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

I'd do that bet again seeing what I saw. I think it was a darn good call on my part to be honest. Considering what the "models" were showing then and the fact that BWI has recorded .4" snow since 1/28/16, and that I still said there was a 30% chance a storm with 2" could occur, what more can anyone ask for with a 17 day call?

 

And you still havent lost the bet yet.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

I'd do that bet again seeing what I saw. I think it was a darn good call on my part to be honest. Considering what the "models" were showing then and the fact that BWI has recorded .4" snow since 1/28/16, and that I still said there was a 30% chance a storm with 2" could occur, what more can anyone ask for with a 17 day call?

Science over gambling :P

 

fwiw, I'd never make that bet with you either ;)

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I'd do that bet again seeing what I saw. I think it was a darn good call on my part to be honest. Considering what the "models" were showing then and the fact that BWI has recorded .4" snow since 1/28/16, and that I still said there was a 30% chance a storm with 2" could occur, what more can anyone ask for with a 17 day call?

The pattern has sucked.. Strong nino is a pain. The threats last weekend were a joke. I'd go down with the ship on this one before buying the Canadian lol. 2 Euros > everything else.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

It's close. 850 Looks like it pushes just to western Loudoun and then comes east again. Some mixing I'm sure but close.

I'm going by those black and white maps some Canadian draws on a cave wall and then gets copies into the computer. But along I95, it's definitely warmer than last night from those maps.

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted

I don't think so. Much worse for I95 this run.

:huh:

 

From GG:

 

According to the GEM's PTYPE (looking at tropicaltidbit's maps... I don't get ptype from my WSI interface), you (and I) don't go to rain even by H96... we go to ice. Snow, ice, no rain (unless mixed is identified the same way as ice... maybe we mix).

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

:huh:

 

From GG:

 

According to the GEM's PTYPE (looking at tropicaltidbit's maps... I don't get ptype from my WSI interface), you (and I) don't go to rain even by H96... we go to ice. Snow, ice, no rain (unless mixed is identified the same way as ice... maybe we mix).

Yeah, I said I was going by the black and white maps printed in a cave. Can't win em' all.   lol

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

The pattern has sucked.. Strong nino is a pain. The threats last weekend were a joke. I'd go down with the ship on this one before buying the Canadian lol. 2 Euros > everything else.

 

Yeah, after today's run, combined with yesterday's runs, it will have everything from the Mississippi eastward covered.

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