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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016


Ji

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Rain is coming. There is slim to probably zero chance we don't get a bunch of rain with this one. I'm digging the front side getting juiced up. Totally wasting the cold would be the ultimate kick in the pill box. 

I know this has been answered but does the snow help keep low level cold air in place..I guess it depends on winds and wind direction

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    well, sorta.   The longer-term plans replace the NAM with an ensemble-based system, but it's a long road to get there.  NAM is getting a major upgrade this summer.

 

Right, my understanding from reading the UMAC Report and speaking with some of the committee members was that the NAM, SREF and some of the other mesoscale guidance would be the first to go (e.g., next 2-3 years) and then the global suite later on (5-10 years).

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Do you think this has any room to trend better or is this sort of the best case scenario?

I'm going to be honest, I didn't look at anything yet. On phone and just following along. I'm heading home shortly after work a 14 hour overnight. I might look when I get home, but sleep is calling lol. From what I'm hearing, run sounds good and looks to ride near I95 which is pretty close to what I was saying earlier. Gonna ride that thermal boundary along the Chesapeake.

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I'm surprised we are getting that much qpf from this system. 3 inches of liquid? I thought there was going to be a very narrow band of heavy qpf with this and it was going to be more like 1 1/2 inches considering there is no high pressure and it should move through very quickly.

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Gfs went from 50s and rain to 33 and rain for me in one run after the changeover

First it was offshore then came west to give us a nice hit then continued west to give us a bunch of rain and now is coming back east to give us a front end thump and a sh!t load of cold rain. Love the consistency. 

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GFS says you owe me 10 large. Double or nothing on the rest of the month?

Here was our original bet

 

Bob Chill, on 28 Jan 2016 - 8:03 PM, said:snapback.png

My confidence level of an acceptable accum snow event by Feb 15th is 70%. Acceptable meaning 2-4/3-6". If I'm wrong then troll me until Dec 2016.

I'll take the other side (70% chance we won't), but will still root for snow and hope to be proven wrong.

 

Then I posted:

"To clarify, you said a 70% of a 2-4"/3-6" event occurring by 2/15 and I took the other side. But that means we're both saying a 30% chance of failing. IOW, you think there's twice as much of a chance that it happens and I say twice as much of a chance of not happening, but neither of us rule it out completely. See how mets can get away with claiming victory even when they're wrong?  lol"

 

So IF it snows on 2/15, was my 2 out of 3 chances of not reaching it a better or worse call?

 

We don't have to answer that now, but this run of the GFS says maybe 2" doesn't fall before 2/16 at BWI    lol

MON 18Z 15-FEB  -1.6    -6.2    1028      86      98    0.06     554     531    TUE 00Z 16-FEB  -0.4    -1.0    1025      96     100    0.22     556     536    TUE 06Z 16-FEB   2.8     2.4    1016     100      93    0.21     555     543    

Oh, the suspense!

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