SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I felt a disturbance in the force Do you think this has any room to trend better or is this sort of the best case scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is over 2.5" rain after snow....ughhh please be wrong Rain is coming. There is slim to probably zero chance we don't get a bunch of rain with this one. I'm digging the front side getting juiced up. Totally wasting the cold would be the ultimate kick in the pill box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 LOL...........at least the GFS dropped the idea of having a low climb Mount Mitchell, hop scotch to Mt. Rogers, and ping pong its way up the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Very nice run. IWM has 6 inches near DC. Weaker low, better track is what we were hoping for to allow for some better CAD. This is the moneyrun for Canaan Valley they would probably clear 2 feet easily. ty sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GGEM is a hit for front in love. 6-8" before we changeover This is from THE Gary Gray btw...talking to him now..he gets it quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The GFS absolutely hates the Shen. Valley. Every run it seems it places the qpf min. right on us. Dude, you get over 6" of snow on the run + ice and 1.5" of liquid. Is that really complainworthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GGEM is a hit for front in love. 6-8" before we changeover 12z is out already? ETA: I see your edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Rain is coming. There is slim to probably zero chance we don't get a bunch of rain with this one. I'm digging the front side getting juiced up. Totally wasting the cold would be the ultimate kick in the pill box. I know this has been answered but does the snow help keep low level cold air in place..I guess it depends on winds and wind direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 well, sorta. The longer-term plans replace the NAM with an ensemble-based system, but it's a long road to get there. NAM is getting a major upgrade this summer. Right, my understanding from reading the UMAC Report and speaking with some of the committee members was that the NAM, SREF and some of the other mesoscale guidance would be the first to go (e.g., next 2-3 years) and then the global suite later on (5-10 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z is out already? Read up. Edited to add that I got it from Gary Gray...he gets it quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Dude, you get over 6" of snow on the run + ice and 1.5" of liquid. Is that really complainworthy? I'm looking at the snow map posted above. There is a pretty large area of <1" (snow) in the valley. MBY is barely included in the 2" contour. Not looking at the rain qpf (nor do I care). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The GFS absolutely hates the Shen. Valley. Every run it seems it places the qpf min. right on us. We are further from the low. No surprise we aren't the max. Besides, it's negligible. Also, what if we go to rain? Do you want the max rainfall you can get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 doesn't look like much precip though. Thats OK. I'll take 3 inches of concrete and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Do you think this has any room to trend better or is this sort of the best case scenario? I'm going to be honest, I didn't look at anything yet. On phone and just following along. I'm heading home shortly after work a 14 hour overnight. I might look when I get home, but sleep is calling lol. From what I'm hearing, run sounds good and looks to ride near I95 which is pretty close to what I was saying earlier. Gonna ride that thermal boundary along the Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Dude, you get over 6" of snow on the run + ice and 1.5" of liquid. Is that really complainworthy? I don't think he thought that one all the way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm looking at the snow map posted above. There is a pretty large area of <1" (snow) in the valley. MBY is barely included in the 2" contour. Not looking at the rain qpf (nor do I care). Don't look at snow maps. Look at precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm surprised we are getting that much qpf from this system. 3 inches of liquid? I thought there was going to be a very narrow band of heavy qpf with this and it was going to be more like 1 1/2 inches considering there is no high pressure and it should move through very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Read up. Edited to add that I got it from Gary Gray...he gets it quicker OK, but what is front in love? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The GFS absolutely hates the Shen. Valley. Every run it seems it places the qpf min. right on us. That's how you stay frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Take pics of that snow before it's gone in an hour from the deluge that follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Don't look at snow maps. Look at precip maps. True. I often make that (lazy) mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS has everyone west of the bay near 33-34 degrees with tremendous precip. I cant imagine how this would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NE MD def gets nailed with a boat load of rain to wash away your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs went from 50s and rain to 33 and rain for me in one run after the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Much more believable track. Yeah, we do get the random Apps runner, but it's rarer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z GGEM at 84 has 1011mb SLP S AL/N FL border... 96 is 1007mb SLP just offshore Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs went from 50s and rain to 33 and rain for me in one run after the changeover First it was offshore then came west to give us a nice hit then continued west to give us a bunch of rain and now is coming back east to give us a front end thump and a sh!t load of cold rain. Love the consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS says you owe me 10 large. Double or nothing on the rest of the month? Here was our original bet Bob Chill, on 28 Jan 2016 - 8:03 PM, said: My confidence level of an acceptable accum snow event by Feb 15th is 70%. Acceptable meaning 2-4/3-6". If I'm wrong then troll me until Dec 2016. I'll take the other side (70% chance we won't), but will still root for snow and hope to be proven wrong. Then I posted: "To clarify, you said a 70% of a 2-4"/3-6" event occurring by 2/15 and I took the other side. But that means we're both saying a 30% chance of failing. IOW, you think there's twice as much of a chance that it happens and I say twice as much of a chance of not happening, but neither of us rule it out completely. See how mets can get away with claiming victory even when they're wrong? lol" So IF it snows on 2/15, was my 2 out of 3 chances of not reaching it a better or worse call? We don't have to answer that now, but this run of the GFS says maybe 2" doesn't fall before 2/16 at BWI lol MON 18Z 15-FEB -1.6 -6.2 1028 86 98 0.06 554 531 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -0.4 -1.0 1025 96 100 0.22 556 536 TUE 06Z 16-FEB 2.8 2.4 1016 100 93 0.21 555 543 Oh, the suspense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Longitude FTW. JI and company should keep en eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs went from 50s and rain to 33 and rain for me in one run after the changeover That's one small step for man, one giant leap for ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.