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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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The low is not going to go from the Tri Cities to Elkins to Scranton like the gfs shows.

The overnight runs are better than they were at 12z yesterday. I honestly think this ends up better than we might think right now.

EPS and gefs snow means are better right now than they were at any point yesterday. Gefs means a little worse than 0z but for some reason that happens quite frequently with them.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Para euro is 3" along 95 to 5" in northern fdk county. Little better than the op. Looking at the panels it wouldn't take much of a shift to give us 4"+ through the region before the flip. Definitely more precip in general with the stuff out in front than the op but the best runs through w md and Cpa.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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Para euro is 3" along 95 to 5" in northern fdk county. Little better than the op. Looking at the panels it wouldn't take much of a shift to give us 4"+ through the region before the flip. Definitely more precip in general with the stuff out in front than the op but the best runs through w md and Cpa.

Is there a way to see the previous para run Bob?

 

I can't say for certain because I can't see it, but I think that it was an improvement over it's prior run as well.

 

Edit:  Now I remember saying the prior run was remarkably similar to the op.  So yes, it is a major improvement.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Is there a way to see the previous para run Bob?

I can't say for certain because I can't see it, but I think that it was an improvement over it's prior run as well.

Edit: Now I remember saying the prior run was remarkably similar to the op. So yes, it is a major improvement.

No archive that I know of but definitely an improvement. The front running waa snow has plenty of time to improve and hopefully it does.

Para is much quicker and weaker with slp. Still a pile of rain but a 1000mb low zipping along makes more sense than a sub 990 bomb. Interesting storm to say the least if you look beyond snow chances.

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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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No archive that I know of but definitely an improvement. The front running waa snow has plenty of time to improve and hopefully it does.

Para is much quicker and weaker with slp. Still a pile of rain but a 1000mb low zipping along makes more sense than a sub 990 bomb. Interesting storm to say the least if you look beyond snow chances.

 

Is it running the low west of us like the GFS?

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so_whats_happening

so_whats_happening

Posted
Posted

It's funny, I just looked at that run too and was actually pleased with what I saw. It is the long range NAM so I heed caution, but the look was definitely more favorable for frozen. I still believe that the CAD signature will trend stronger around game time, but not sure if that would be a reflection of more snow or ice due to the WAA forecasted with this low pressure. If only this sped up by 6 hours or so, we could see a decent front end thump before transitioning to rain around I95 and unfortunately ice out toward the I81 corridor and higher terrain of MD. I'm not basing that CAD prediction off of anything other than past experience with these types of setups. Cold air at the surface is very difficult to erode after an arctic shot like this, but like others have said, it can happen. 

 

Honestly do not feel like we will know until saturday night runs (00z) energy behind this storm is what is causing this storm to cut further inland rather than further east as it feels it wants to. CAD definitely a player but models always have a hard time handling this. Think a thump of 2-6" in some spots to ice, as for track that will depend on whether the transition to rain occurs that far west or if they stay east. Liking coastal plain probably right around 95 track maybe even slightly east of there.

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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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*For entertainment purposes only, the aforementioned FIM model referenced by JB yesterday has a slower solution that tracks the SLP east and keeps most of the area at or below 0c for the entire event.

 

fim_tsnow_conus2_22.png

This is how I know DC immediate area is out of the game for anything beyond a small/medium thump.  Even if the storm takes an ideal track, which no models (except the canadian) are showing, it still looks like a NW/elevation favored event.  I think Frederick/Winchester and obviously Hagerstown out to Oakland-Davis have the potential for a nice event.  Anyhow, it'll be fun to watch the goal posts narrow today.  

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
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Honestly do not feel like we will know until saturday night runs (00z) energy behind this storm is what is causing this storm to cut further inland rather than further east as it feels it wants to. CAD definitely a player but models always have a hard time handling this. Think a thump of 2-6" in some spots to ice, as for track that will depend on whether the transition to rain occurs that far west or if they stay east. Liking coastal plain probably right around 95 track maybe even slightly east of there.

 

Funny you say that as I mentioned that same track idea to a colleague of mine earlier this morning. I feel the system is being too wound up for the setup currently and models are tracking too far west from the thermal boundary in place from the arctic shot this weekend. I can see an adjustment to the east over the next 48 hours, but I still think the low would run up the Delmarva/Chesapeake. As far as the CAD wedge, the typical areas along and west of the BR would be the prime candidates to have the icing potential linger longer than currently modeled. Those spots will still probably change to rain, just a matter of when. I can see areas near and just west of 95 making run at mid 40's while areas like Winchester, Martinsburg and Hagerstown struggle to hit the low 40's and rot in a cold rain to end the storm. 

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

Feeling good about this one.  May get my nads kicked up into my abdomen later, but feeling good right now.

 

I definitely feel better about this one than Mondays debacle. Especially for our area. The GGEM is a beatdown out here. The Euro would be a few inches. The GFS is flash flooding. We know the CAD tends to hold a little longer than modeled. But that is a screaming south wind being modeled. 

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
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This is how I know DC immediate area is out of the game for anything beyond a small/medium thump.  Even if the storm takes an ideal track, which no models (except the canadian) are showing, it still looks like a NW/elevation favored event.  I think Frederick/Winchester and obviously Hagerstown out to Oakland-Davis have the potential for a nice event.  Anyhow, it'll be fun to watch the goal posts narrow today.  

 

On that map, at least, OKV, MRB, and HGR are on the verge of being somehow shut-out.... again.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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We should. It's the 6z run.

Lol. There is still plenty of spread and thus hope here since we go have cold to start with but ignoring a run flat out because it's bad is foolish. And we had this argument before. While the off hour runs may have slightly lower scores at times they are still better then the previous run at verifying and the difference is minor. Ignore guidance at your own risk.
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so_whats_happening

so_whats_happening

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Funny you say that as I mentioned that same track idea to a colleague of mine earlier this morning. I feel the system is being too wound up for the setup currently and models are tracking too far west from the thermal boundary in place from the arctic shot this weekend. I can see an adjustment to the east over the next 48 hours, but I still think the low would run up the Delmarva/Chesapeake. As far as the CAD wedge, the typical areas along and west of the BR would be the prime candidates to have the icing potential linger longer than currently modeled. Those spots will still probably change to rain, just a matter of when. I can see areas near and just west of 95 making run at mid 40's while areas like Winchester, Martinsburg and Hagerstown struggle to hit the low 40's and rot in a cold rain to end the storm. 

 

Yea honestly snowstorm idea is way off into left field right now. But yes colder solution for sure. I think even those temps might be pushing it some totally not a big CAD setup but as said that track is the big decider for this. I do like the idea of delmarva/ still inland from the coast the big cities i see getting into the 40's western subs mid maybe upper 30s if it pans out like a CAD. Talk about inversion with a screaming southerly jet just a few 1000 feet up

 

Ill check with you on saturday night if your still feeling the same way

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

*For entertainment purposes only, the aforementioned FIM model referenced by JB yesterday has a slower solution that tracks the SLP east and keeps most of the area at or below 0c for the entire event. .

fim_tsnow_conus2_22.png

he won't support it anymore because it screws over state college. He is trying to get this one to score for him. Can't blame him it's been kinda a pathetic winter up there. If not for the blizzard Id probably be in full weenie Wishcast mode right now
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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Posted
Posted

NAM looking like some nice front-end action through 72.  Just can't take it seriously though the way it was flip-flopping within 24 hours of the last storm. 

 

ETA:  Looks like a pretty strong CAD signature at 78

 

ETA #2:  Why must the NAM tease us like this?  Such a nice run.  Verbatim it would be like 6 inches and then a flip to ice for DC with the far Western burbs being all snow.

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