#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[Ji]

deflating run....

[CAPE]

No front end thump..maybe 2" out towards Hagerstown

[snowfan]

One plus is I'll be in Louisville and can post snow pics for all of you

[Ian]

Ukie and euro cuttin a rug. They could be wrong but there's no compelling argument to say why they are.

50/50 high and no block... hope for "too amped" I guess.

[CAPE]

Ukie and euro cuttin a rug. They could be wrong but there's no compelling argument to say why they are.

Nah, especially when you also take into account the GEFS. Might be 3 members with a mostly snow event.

[Ian]

we cant even get a snowstorm the day after its zero degrees

we can only get snow if it's a HECS in a perfect pattern

[WinterWxLuvr]

This ain't that far from being pretty good.  I'll bet the ensembles will show a bunch of good hits.

[mitchnick]

at this point, all we can hope for is wrap around  

[CAPE]

Canaan looks pretty good for a foot of snow.

[snowfan]

Yeah, it dumps in the mountains and up into PA.

[mitchnick]

with the Low to our west, maybe something will come around the back side afterward with some hope

it happens occasionally

[CAPE]

My temp goes from 12 to 55 in 36 hours.

[mitchnick]

My temp goes from 12 to 55 in 36 hours.

it'll get warmer than that day 9 and beyond methinks

[CAPE]

Time to focus on squalls and flurries with our 4 days of cold.

[ravensrule]

with the Low to our west, maybe something will come around the back side afterward with some hope

it happens occasionally

Maybe Beyonce or Kim K., that would be some storm.

[RevWarReenactor]

this area and this winter both suck

 

You guys at CWG did a good job predicting the possibility of a big one but perhaps not much more.

[Maestrobjwa]

Alright--Punt the ball away and close the thread!! Lol

[Bob Chill]

Even cutters jackpot Westminster

 

[Sparky]

Time to focus on squalls and flurries with our 4 days of cold.

[clueless]

Wed. Plenty of time for this to trend either way. No punting allowed. We got a few weeks left.

[Wonderdog]

This was the second thread created prematurely. The first was that POS of an inverted trough and the second was this futile thread that was originally misdated.

[Wonderdog]

After looking at the 12z GFS op run, the storm has trended stronger and it's closer to us than the 6z run. Maybe I was premature on my premature complaint.

[Bob Chill]

They're not done running yet but the euro ens are definitely going to offer more hope than the op. Ji might change his thread title. 

[yoda]

They're not done running yet but the euro ens are definitely going to offer more hope than the op. Ji might change his thread title. 

 

It looks somewhat better... I too am waiting for them to finish

[WinterWxLuvr]

They're not done running yet but the euro ens are definitely going to offer more hope than the op. Ji might change his thread title. 

The mean is def. better than it was at 0z.

 

There are some good hits in there.

[WinterWxLuvr]

At day 7 the mean is 2" at DC, about 4" here.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

They're not done running yet but the euro ens are definitely going to offer more hope than the op. Ji might change his thread title. 

 

Yeah, maybe change it from "fail" to "phail", the spelling of which implies a worse fail? ; )

 

By the way, maybe it was earlier in the thread but I missed it...but what's with the "19" and the asterisks in the title?

 

On topic, I guess at least the EPS sound better from what a couple of you are describing.  Maybe several members hold the cold air in longer?

[yoda]

At hr 180, between 25-30 members have 2"+ snows for DCA

[SnowGoose69]

Yeah, maybe change it from "fail" to "phail", the spelling of which implies a worse fail? ; )

By the way, maybe it was earlier in the thread but I missed it...but what's with the "19" and the asterisks in the title?

On topic, I guess at least the EPS sound better from what a couple of you are describing. Maybe several members hold the cold air in longer?

Way more than several from what I see, it's more the case of several that are as bad as the Op. It's mostly a speed issue with the bad Euro members, they are much slower and hence the cold air erodes and the system is warmer and or can go more amped

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Way more than several from what I see, it's more the case of several that are as bad as the Op. It's mostly a speed issue with the bad Euro members, they are much slower and hence the cold air erodes and the system is warmer and or can go more amped

 

Thanks.  That makes perfect sense actually, how you described it (since I'm not looking at the individual members here!).  I guess it's good that way more than several might at least give us hope of a decent front end.  I think we're all well aware this will be a very imperfect setup and we're almost certainly looking at a changover to rain (or to sleet/ice, then rain).  The key is to not end up with as much of a washout after a change, and to maximize the snow if we at all can.

 

And to add...Yoda, that sounds pretty decent (relatively) if that many members are giving 2"+ over the DC area.  I believe that is better than 00Z or even yesterday?