#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[ers-wxman1]

UK looks a touch east

[mitchnick]

Ukmet at 96

120

72 hrs precip....sweet

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=072&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

[ers-wxman1]

that could be ugly up here as ggem keeps us below freezing most of the event. Lots of ice

Definitely a significant impact if correct.

[stormtracker]

Look on TT, GGEM never goes over to plain rain for DC west...or if it does, all the good stuff is out by then

[ers-wxman1]

Look on TT, GGEM never goes over to plain rain for DC west...or if it does, all the good stuff is out by then

And rates are intense.

[weathervswife]

19" for CHO on GGEM

[ers-wxman1]

It would be heavy wet snow if GEM is right. Impacts to trees, power lines, roofs etc.

[weathervswife]

10" DC and 21" for Roanoke on GGEM

[Snowman.]

Yeah the GGEM run is nuts.

[kurtstack]

well given the look on the ukie - it could be a hint the euro will shift east too.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[weathervswife]

Seems the pattern the past 3 days are for great 0Z runs and crappy 12Z runs.  Trend continues.  

[paweather]

And rates are intense.

are you a met?

[ers-wxman1]

are you a met?

Yes

[SnowGoose69]

Seems the pattern the past 3 days are for great 0Z runs and crappy 12Z runs. Trend continues.

System is coming from very far away and very quickly. Models just struggling for that reason. I've felt since the beginning a weaker and flatter system early on over the TN valley and southeast was more likely and that would ultimately translate to a further east track up in the mid Atlantic and northeast

[ravensrule]

Pretty rare to have any virgas hanging around Baltimore any more.

<that's for you RR>

Ever since i am here that's for sure.

[Snowman.]

GGEM is a real weenie run.. brings a clipper through Thursday morning that drops 1-3" of powder.

[mitchnick]

Per Wxbell, gem is 12" at DCA and 11" at BWI at 174 hrs

[Snowman.]

Per Wxbell, gem is 12" at DCA and 11" at BWI

and it drops another 1-3" DC south from a clipper Thursday morning

[mitchnick]

Per Wxbell, gem is 12" at DCA and 11" at BWI at 174 hrs

10" both places for the big storm

[mitchnick]

and it drops another 1-3" DC south from a clipper Thursday morning

It shows 10" both places at 132 hrs. Clipper adds 2" at both locations.

[Ltrain]

and it drops another 1-3" DC south from a clipper Thursday morning

GFS is also showing a clipper at this time.

[Scraff]

Just caught up on the excitement. Good stuff happening here! Love to get that big thump before any ice and rain. Fingers crossed as I head to off to bed. Can't wait to hear what the king declares.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Completely disagree with the snow maps put out on the CMC..A surface low track over Richmond is not supportive of snow for the I95 corridor and cities...The antecedent air mass is nice but without negative NAO and the High moving off the coast is not supportive of prolonged snow/ice particularly near the cities. A couple inches on the front end is plausible but the 6"+ or more? forget about it.

[BristowWx]

Just caught up on the excitement. Good stuff happening here! Love to get that big thump before any ice and rain. Fingers crossed as I head to off to bed. Can't wait to hear what the king declares.

I don't think the king will be happy with any of this silliness from the court jester weather models

[Amped]

Completely disagree with the snow maps put out on the CMC..A surface low track over Richmond is not supportive of snow for the I95 corridor and cities...The antecedent air mass is nice but without negative NAO and the High moving off the coast is not supportive of prolonged snow/ice particularly near the cities. A couple inches on the front end is plausible but the 6"+ or more? forget about it.

Let everyone fantasize for 30 minutes until the Dr No lays down the law. Think we all know this is a thread the needle.

[Jebman]

Look what I've been missin'. I am smack dab in the middle  of a Battle Pirates raid that lasts for 3 more days. 

 

the fact that Ginx snewx is lurkin is a good indicator

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Let everyone fantasize for 30 minutes until the Dr No lays down the law. Think we all know this is a thread the needle.

I hear you, but even if the EURO shows something close to the CMC I still dont buy it. Id wonder some analogs with a surface low over Richmond and without a nice high over Quebec region that actually produced significant snow over the metros...

[kurtstack]

I hear you, but even if the EURO shows something close to the CMC I still dont buy it. Id wonder some analogs with a surface low over Richmond and without a nice high over Quebec region that actually produced significant snow over the metros...

arent many anologs to choose from with fresh arctic air in place like this. You may find similar pattern analogs but likely with a less pronounced antecedent air mass in place. It would take a very strong low cutting west of the big cities to rapidly displace it a 999 mb low over norfolk will slowly erode it rather than chase it out, meaning far more prolonged frozen - as the models have shown us. if you buy the 980 mb hurricane like solution over martinsburg, then yeah even arctic air wont last long.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ezweather]

Okay, so I'm up watching the Euro run. So, who else is taking a peak?  Let's see if any eastward shift is shown on the Euro.. 

[Huffwx]

Okay, so I'm up watching the Euro run. So, who else is taking a peak?  Let's see if any eastward shift is shown on the Euro.. 

 

I'm up too.. Even if half the GGEM is right and my area sees 6 inches of snow and then .5 of ZR, would be pretty bad around here.