#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[stormtracker]

It's a smidge better starting out...but I don't think it'll help in the long run.

[mitchnick]

99 hrs

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021200&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=099

[yoda]

102 -- over ATL or thereabouts

105 -- W SC

[ers-wxman1]

If I am going to get yelled at. What do you see on panel 45 compared to the 12z or 18z run? Better or worse? Otherwise this post is worthless in a storm thread

It was simply to say the model has initialized. If you don't like it simply pass it over. Don't give me an attitude.

[yoda]

MSLP passes over RDU at 111... so this looks like it will be somewhat better

[Heisy]

That follow up wave @ 108 hours looks interesting...idk if it will have enough spacing but it is pretty mean looking

[Wonderdog]

From what I'm reading, it seems it has to be better.

[stormtracker]

GFS has what looks like a kicker behind it...maybe that'll help us in the long run...but this run ain't gonna do it

[Interstate]

It was simply to say the model has initialized. If you don't like it simply pass it over. Don't give me an attitude.

 

I am not giving you an attitude.  You are a red tag so I wanted your input.  Also panel 45 is way past initialized. 

[yoda]

114 over ORF or just west

117 over Ocean City/Salisbury

120 just south of NYC

 

So this 00z GFS run takes the MSLP just SE of DCA

[Amped]

850mb line sweeps back south but no surface cold left to tap. Lotta ZR and rain on this run

[AnthonyDabbundo]

GFS at 0z Tuesday, snow/ice event to start 

[ers-wxman1]

I am not giving you an attitude. You are a red tag so I wanted your input. Also panel 45 is way past initialized.

Nothing to comment

[ers-wxman1]

114 over ORF or just west

117 over Ocean City/Salisbury

So this run the MSLP passes just SE of DCA

Somewhat of an improvement. Steps in the right direction.

[feloniousq]

I am not giving you an attitude.  You are a red tag so I wanted your input.  Also panel 45 is way past initialized. 

 

Telling red tags what they can and can't post in storm threads in the middle of a model run is pretty much the epitome of "attitude" on this forum.  You're being a child.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Moving toward a more believable track. Slow the retreating high just a bit, slow the low zipping through the midwest just a tad and out temps might be a little better upstairs.

It got better. That's enough for now.

[Warm Nose]

Well, at least we're headed in the right direction ... maybe

[Heisy]

I wonder if there is a chance we can get separation from the first low and that 2nd shortwave because that one actually has a HP building behind it. 

[mitchnick]

126 hrs

Snowfall before rain hit

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021200&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=126

[yoda]

126 hrs

Snowfall before rain hit

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021200&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=126

 

2-4" sounds nice

[mitchnick]

I wonder if there is a chance we can get separation from the first low and that 2nd shortwave because that one actually has a HP building behind it.

Possibly, but too soon for the models to figure that one out.

[Wonderdog]

Well, at least we're headed in the right direction ... maybe

No maybe about it. A good move in the right direction.

[mitchnick]

2-4" sounds nice

Well, that map puts Dca in a solid 4", so drop the 2". Lol

[stormtracker]

Telling red tags what they can and can't post in storm threads in the middle of a model run is pretty much the epitome of "attitude" on this forum.  You're being a child.

 

 

I am not giving you an attitude.  You are a red tag so I wanted your input.  Also panel 45 is way past initialized. 

Ok yall.

[stormtracker]

Well, that map puts Dca in a solid 4", so drop the 2". Lol

Just hold the change to rain off until after say 10am Tuesday.

[ers-wxman1]

Track definitely shifted in the right direction...also looks more correct as to where the baroclinic zone sets up. Colder to start but that high going offshore and the strength of that low will force tremendous WAA over the shallow cold air. Those 850 0's retreat fast. Progressive pattern.

[Snowman.]

Decent run west of 95. 4" of snow and a few hours of ZR before flipping.

[HighStakes]

QPF is crazy this run.

[BTRWx]

Somewhat of an improvement. Steps in the right direction.

Indeed!

[ers-wxman1]

Jet is very strong...that low just rips north faster than the speed limit.