#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[Ian]

You'd think that the wind would be better with that kind of low, but there is no high to give us a great pressure gradient. 

Euro was weird. Had huge gusts but sustained of like 20-25.

[Bob Chill]

I think the 18z GFS track makes more sense than the euro track, but it's still a goofy track imo...I think the track either goes to our west or further to our east....It's a possible track but not climatologically common...honestly a track to our west might me better as it could throw more moisture our way before the flip

I'm pretty much jumping on a close pass of a very deep low pressure. Just for the novelty. Euro was pretty nasty too. We haven't had anything like this happen in a long time but I'm no rainman so I'll defer.

[Deck Pic]

I don't even consider Feb 2014 a snowstorm in retrospect. It was fun while it ripped but I'd rank something like Mar 09 ahead of it. If we're looking to pad sure.. I know others in DC think it sucked too, as they said so at the time.

 

you got 11"...I hate on that event, but it was still a pretty good event.  I did like March 2009 better for sure...flipping is always kind of a bummer

[ers-wxman1]

Then you didn't click on the link above someone just posted.

I've looked at everything on my laptop and I don't believe it. A low with a trajectory coming from E-TN with a retreating high over the Atlantic is not going to dump 3-5" of snow. More like an inch, maybe 2 then sleet then steady rain.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think the 18z GFS track makes more sense than the euro track, but it's still a goofy track imo...I think the track either goes to our west or further to our east....It's a possible track but not climatologically common...honestly a track to our west might me better as it could throw more moisture our way before the flip

Yes, and a more reliable slug of precip.

[Ian]

I've looked at everything on my laptop and I don't believe it. A low with a trajectory coming from E-TN with a retreating high over the Atlantic is not going to dump 3-5" of snow. More like an inch, maybe 2 then sleet then steady rain.

Quite a bit of the early precip is from the various little waves in the northern stream and it's over hours and hours and hours. I seriously doubt it happens that way.

[MN Transplant]

I don't even consider Feb 2014 a snowstorm in retrospect. It was fun while it ripped but I'd rank something like Mar 09 ahead of it. If we're looking to pad sure.. I know others in DC think it sucked too, as they said so at the time.

Feb '14 was still good but you really needed to be out in it at 2:30am. Better than Feb '06.

[Bob Chill]

I've looked at everything on my laptop and I don't believe it. A low with a trajectory coming from E-TN with a retreating high over the Atlantic is not going to dump 3-5" of snow. More like an inch, maybe 2 then sleet then steady rain.

We get some snow from the front running vort. It all kinda pieces together. It's plausible.

[mitchnick]

I don't even consider Feb 2014 a snowstorm in retrospect. It was fun while it ripped but I'd rank something like Mar 09 ahead of it. If we're looking to pad sure.. I know others in DC think it sucked too, as they said so at the time.

First, I don't care what others think about snow storms. Second, I'll be more than happy with a 2/14 redux. Third, gfs is 24 hours, more or less, of snow falling. I'll take that any day. It's gotta melt at some point.

[ers-wxman1]

Might even be thunderstorms with strong winds over E-NC and Virginia Beach with something like this.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm pretty much jumping on a close pass of a very deep low pressure. Just for the novelty. Euro was pretty nasty too. We haven't had anything like this happen in a long time but I'm no rainman so I'll defer.

Well, you can color me stunned if a 987 is sitting over Martinsburg like the euro showed.

[Ian]

you got 11"...I hate on that event, but it was still a pretty good event.  I did like March 2009 better for sure...flipping is always kind of a bummer

Well maybe that was an extreme comment. It was one of the bigger snowfalls I've seen here. But I was partly making it because all of a sudden a number of you are acting like you are in this all for a small snowfall that gets washed away which I know is as untrue as my statement.

[ers-wxman1]

We get some snow from the front running vort. It all kinda pieces together. It's plausible.

Ok that makes sense. I ignored that and went solely with the main low.

[Deck Pic]

That is a good event although the I hate the prospects of a deluge afterwards. A little zr drizzle or light rain would be much better.

 

Gymengineer has a good knowledge of flip events and it isn't that common (it does happen) to go from a modest snowstorm and 20 degrees to driving rain.  Of course this could also mean we simply don't get the snow part...

 

Feb '14 was still good but you really needed to be out in it at 2:30am. Better than Feb '06.

 

I was out in it.  2:30 - 4:00 was really good...and then 4:15 was really bad

[WinterWxLuvr]

Feb of 14 was a beast west of the BR if it's the same storm I'm thinking of.

[mitchnick]

I've looked at everything on my laptop and I don't believe it. A low with a trajectory coming from E-TN with a retreating high over the Atlantic is not going to dump 3-5" of snow. More like an inch, maybe 2 then sleet then steady rain.

Well, we're discussing the verbatim run of the model. That's what Matt's comment about the 3-5" of snow references and his personal opinion about that scenario. So when you said you don't see it, it made no sense since the link to the snow map shows 3-5".

EDIT-I see your comment above that you posted while I was typing on this gd little phone!

[Ian]

Feb '14 was still good but you really needed to be out in it at 2:30am. Better than Feb '06.

I was up. It was cool except nighttime snow is kind of useless to me. The next day totally ruined it as far as happy memories go. I'm not sure where I'd rank it, probably in the top 10 I've seen here but barely.

[WEATHER53]

This is a true Arctic air mass. It makes its own rules. It can blast thru here at 32 degrees and 40%rh and easily wring out moisture while dropping the temps 10 degrees in an hour

That air mass does not give up its special qualities even as it moves east

We are getting back to the old days of reverse JB-negative nellies chirping "worst possible run" over and over

There is a Difference between naively proclaiming snow all the time versus becoming familiar with circumstances that do allow for snow. It is tough to snow big in Dc, we already know that and constantly being the bad news bearer as if it is some honor is way past silly. Despite the pervasive sentiment, most of us regulars are not in need of a reality check.

[ers-wxman1]

Well, we're discussing the verbatim run of the model. That's what Matt's comment about the 3-5" of snow references and his personal opinion about that scenario. So when you said you don't see it, it made no sense since the link to the snow map shows 3-5".

I understand now. I was ignoring all the vorts coming in and looked solely at the low coming up from the SW.

[Ian]

First, I don't care what others think about snow storms. Second, I'll be more than happy with a 2/14 redux. Third, gfs is 24 hours, more or less, of snow falling. I'll take that any day. It's gotta melt at some point.

 

Fair enough... I don't think the solution is likely as shown with that extended light snow period. But model snow is better than no snow.

[Wonderdog]

Tiny bit more front end but it actually ends up stronger and further west than 12z by Tue morning.

True, but actually not as bad as it could have been when it was in Western NC. I thought it was headed for Chicago at that point. 12z had the slp over Ocean City, NJ and 18z has it over Philly. Maybe that's going to be the western end of the envelope and if we're lucky, as we always are, it will take baby steps back to where it was at 0z this morning. That's my hope.

[ers-wxman1]

This is a true Arctic air mass. It makes its own rules. It can blast thru here at 32 degrees and 40%rh and easily wring out moisture while dropping the temps 10 degrees in an hour

That air mass does not give up its special qualities even as it moves east

We are getting back to the old days of reverse JB-negative nellies chirping "worst possible run" over and over

There is a Difference between naively proclaiming snow all the time versus becoming familiar with circumstances that do allow for snow. It is tough to snow big in Dc, we already know that and constantly being the bad news bearer as if it is some honor is way past silly. Despite the pervasive sentiment, most of us regulars are not in need of a reality check.

When it's not a good scenario, it's not a good scenario. Add a little blocking and better position to the high and we would be in business.

[Deck Pic]

This is a true Arctic air mass. It makes its own rules. It can blast thru here at 32 degrees and 40%rh and easily wring out moisture while dropping the temps 10 degrees in an hour

That air mass does not give up its special qualities even as it moves east

We are getting back to the old days of reverse JB-negative nellies chirping "worst possible run" over and over

There is a Difference between naively proclaiming snow all the time versus becoming familiar with circumstances that do allow for snow. It is tough to snow big in Dc, we already know that and constantly being the bad news bearer as if it is some honor is way past silly. Despite the pervasive sentiment, most of us regulars are not in need of a reality check.

 

I know solutions are all unique and the strength of this storm is a potential buzzkill, but so often we see models run a low up the gut and be wrong.  Plus we do decent even with rotting air masses and a retreating high.  Sometimes this means freezing rain, but so many times the die is supposedly cast in terms warm air winning, and then we get within 24 hours and Loudoun and Montgomery are under WWA's

[mitchnick]

Fair enough... I don't think the solution is likely as shown with that extended light snow period. But model snow is better than no snow.

...and often, all we get

[Ian]

This is a true Arctic air mass. It makes its own rules. It can blast thru here at 32 degrees and 40%rh and easily wring out moisture while dropping the temps 10 degrees in an hour

That air mass does not give up its special qualities even as it moves east

We are getting back to the old days of reverse JB-negative nellies chirping "worst possible run" over and over

There is a Difference between naively proclaiming snow all the time versus becoming familiar with circumstances that do allow for snow. It is tough to snow big in Dc, we already know that and constantly being the bad news bearer as if it is some honor is way past silly. Despite the pervasive sentiment, most of us regulars are not in need of a reality check.

We all like snow but some of us tend to lean one way or another more often than not. It's not a big deal.. it's quite apparent over time who leans which way. I think we could all make a list of people who will lean snow favorable and those who will lean snow unfavorable in a majority of solutions and the lists would look rather similar. I tend to lean pessimistic, I won't pretend that I don't. It's not just to make you or someone else sad though.  I also bang the drum plenty when needed.

[psuhoffman]

Sorry to bring reality into your fantasy of speculation

The models are just a tool and a better one then anything else we have for figuring out what may happen more then a few days out. I actually think they have made amazing improvements recently because the differences we seem to argue over now from 100 hours out, like a 50-100 mile shift in the rain snow line, are minor compared to what I remember when I first started this at penn state in the 90s where stuff past 72 hours was total fantasy and while storms just went poof from that range every day.

[Deck Pic]

Well maybe that was an extreme comment. It was one of the bigger snowfalls I've seen here. But I was partly making it because all of a sudden a number of you are acting like you are in this all for a small snowfall that gets washed away which I know is as untrue as my statement.

 

You're forgetting how weenie-ish some of us are when it comes to snow..

[psuhoffman]

give it a rest okay!!!

I moved to banter what more do you want???

[WEATHER53]

I know solutions are all unique and the strength of this storm is a potential buzzkill, but so often we see models run a low up the gut and be wrong.  Plus we do decent even with rotting air masses and a retreating high.  Sometimes this means freezing rain, but so many times the die is supposedly cast in terms warm air winning, and then we get within 24 hours and Loudoun and Montgomery are under WWA's

Just last year we had a departing high off midatlantic. This one is likely to be off Maine if even off

What a lot do not relate to is that for Dc it's all about the cold high. Lows are a dime a dozen

[mitchnick]

One thing in defense of this gfs run is that the Ukie showed a very broad area of overrunning precip at 72 hrs on the 12z run. Figuring it could expand more as it moves east might support (I said might remember) this gfs run of an extended period of light snow before the main show.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072