#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[Windman18]

Not bad-

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=105

[yoda]

111 -- 998 SLP W NC

[Bob Chill]

We get some snow but the run is hideous track wise.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Not bad-

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=105

 

Yeah the overrunning precip looks ok but the low is going way west (of the Para GFS which I'm considering the good solution) .  

[grhqofb5]

Why do we need so many weather models? Are they really of value or just to burn budget dollars?

 

The real goal is to get to 100 models, then assign a weight to each of them based on accuracy, and calculate an average amongst them for each storm and present the result in one "Mega Model."  I've already started the process on my own.  But its only an experimental Mega Model at this point. I don't just lurk here.

[Ji]

0z is where the bigger changes happen

[MacintoshPro]

overrunning precipitation is a nice 2-4".. but its promptly washed away by heavy rain. 

[Ian]

Tiny bit more front end but it actually ends up stronger and further west than 12z by Tue morning.

[Bob Chill]

Tiny bit more front end but it actually ends up stronger and further west than 12z by Tue morning.

I'm rooting for a sub 990 within 50 miles of my house now.

[Deck Pic]

We get some snow but the run is hideous track wise.

 

Isn't 2-4" kind of a decent over/under for this event?  I'd honestly probably lock this run up...

[ers-wxman1]

Terrible run

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Isn't 2-4" kind of a decent over/under for this event?  I'd honestly probably lock this run up...

 

Yeah at least Monday wouldn't suck.  Better than the Euro.  

[Deck Pic]

Terrible run

 

I think everyone has different success benchmarks.,...3-5" with instant stickage is a pretty good event for me at least

[mitchnick]

0z is where the bigger changes happen

Tonight, tomorrow night, Saturday night, or Sunday night? I vote all 4.

[Ian]

I'm rooting for a sub 990 within 50 miles of my house now.

Getting there. 988 over the bay?

[Bob Chill]

Isn't 2-4" kind of a decent over/under for this event? I'd honestly probably lock this run up...

I'd lock this run in a second. Exceeds my 2" bar and a close pass with a sub 990. Snow and wind fetish satisfaction.

[MN Transplant]

Can't even pretend that the cold air will wedge in.  That thing is coming like a freight train and there is no high in sight.

 

A quick-hitter cold air mass is no good. 

[Ian]

I think everyone has different success benchmarks.,...3-5" with instant stickage is a pretty good event for me at least

This run has 12-18 hours of light precip before the low really does much to us. I'd probably take the under.

[ers-wxman1]

I think everyone has different success benchmarks.,...3-5" with instant stickage is a pretty good event for me at least

I don't see how anyone gets 3-5" on the front end.

[MN Transplant]

I'd lock this run in a second. Exceeds my 2" bar and a close pass with a sub 990. Snow and wind fetish satisfaction.

 

You'd think that the wind would be better with that kind of low, but there is no high to give us a great pressure gradient. 

[mitchnick]

I think everyone has different success benchmarks.,...3-5" with instant stickage is a pretty good event for me at least

It's been that way for as long as they've been keeping winter climate records in these parts. The fact that there's a changeover does not negate a moderate snow event for us.

[stormtracker]

I think everyone has different success benchmarks.,...3-5" with instant stickage is a pretty good event for me at least

Yup.  By no means is this terrible considering our situation.

[Bob Chill]

What a beast. 970's over VT. I'm in on this run. Big storms like this are rare. Could flip back to snow....nah

[HighStakes]

I think everyone has different success benchmarks.,...3-5" with instant stickage is a pretty good event for me at least

That is a good event although the I hate the prospects of a deluge afterwards. A little zr drizzle or light rain would be much better.

[MacintoshPro]

It's been that way for as long as they've been keeping winter climate records in these parts. The fact that there's a changeover does not negate a moderate snow event for us.

 

 

but it does make us go to work Tuesday

[Deck Pic]

I'm rooting for a sub 990 within 50 miles of my house now.

 

I think the 18z GFS track makes more sense than the euro track, but it's still a goofy track imo...I think the track either goes to our west or further to our east....It's a possible track but not climatologically common...honestly a track to our west might me better as it could throw more moisture our way before the flip

[Ian]

It's been that way for as long as they've been keeping winter climate records in these parts. The fact that there's a changeover does not negate a moderate snow event for us.

I don't even consider Feb 2014 a snowstorm in retrospect. It was fun while it ripped but I'd rank something like Mar 09 ahead of it. If we're looking to pad sure.. I know others in DC think it sucked too, as they said so at the time.

[BTRWx]

Terrible run

Para is where it's at!

[mitchnick]

I don't see how anyone gets 3-5" on the front end.

Then you didn't click on the link above someone just posted.

[Deck Pic]

I don't see how anyone gets 3-5" on the front end.

 

I'm taking the run verbatim...