#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[SnowGoose69]

12z UKIE at 144 is 987mb in SW VA/S VA... was in S AR at 120 so its moving ENE... we rain buckets

I'm pretty sure the UKMET is going to end up wrong here, the Euro Para which has been insanely good is extremely flat and the Canadian which normally drops bombs at this range wants no part of it

[kurtstack]

I'm pretty sure the UKMET is going to end up wrong here, the Euro Para which has been insanely good is extremely flat and the Canadian which normally drops bombs at this range wants no part of it

The flatter weaker solutions are the ones that are laying down some snow in va.  I hope you are right. 

It looks like the Canadian is flat and weaker because it's got that northern stream system acting as a kicker, which doesn't allow it to amp up like the Ukie. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

12z UKIE at 144 is 987mb in SW VA/S VA... was in S AR at 120 so its moving ENE... we rain buckets

I think it would be hard to tell exactly what that would be since we have no 850 or surface temps.  At 120 that high, though not ideal, would still hold in some CAD, especially coming out of a big time cold snap.  So maybe some front end stuff?

 

BTW, does temp and precip info not exist for the UKIE at that range, or is there just no source for it for the public?

[stormtracker]

GGEM isn't all bad...has an initial thump

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm pretty sure the UKMET is going to end up wrong here, the Euro Para which has been insanely good is extremely flat and the Canadian which normally drops bombs at this range wants no part of it

The Euro para would be just fine.

[psuhoffman]

GGEM isn't all bad...has an initial thump

Ggem? The quick glance I took had almost no previp making it up our way. Maybe dca south got scraped by an inch befire the low got kicked out.

[stormtracker]

Ggem? The quick glance I took had almost no previp making it up our way. Maybe dca south got scraped by an inch befire the low got kicked out.

Do i have different maps? Somebody said it was a rain thing and I'm looking at it don't see rain on it.  

ETA: the color scheme on AMwx makes the precip look heavier than it is...but still, it isn't rain?

[Bob Chill]

GEFS not very encouraging. Mixed bag but lots of rainers. A step back from 6z. 

 

Here's the general spread of snow ideas. Pretty weak along the western tier. Which seem like an outlier but who knows. 

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

It's been a weird year. They all have their twists and turns though. The NS stuff is mostly pac energy rolling over the top of the PNA ridge. At least lately. That's to be expected with a +pna. The issue is we are devoid of good blocking most of the time so there is no mechanism to cleanly force the pac energy down below us. It's been getting a free pass to scoot across the northern tier.

Great explanation.  Thanks Bob.

[CAPE]

Ggem? The quick glance I took had almost no previp making it up our way. Maybe dca south got scraped by an inch befire the low got kicked out.

I would take the general idea of the GGEM. Or the GFS. Flatter/faster/weaker will prob get me a few inches. With the pattern as it is, if you do well up there, I likely get a big rainer.

[WinterWxLuvr]

GEFS not very encouraging. Mixed bag but lots of rainers. A step back from 6z. 

 

Here's the general spread of snow ideas. Pretty weak along the western tier. Which seem like an outlier but who knows. 

 

 

 

gefssno2.JPG

Gonna go out on a limb here and say that e7, e19, and e20 won't verify.  986 over Elkins, 1005 over Manassas, and 993 on Wes' front  porch. 

 

It is a step back from 6z, but an improvement over 0z, so at least we have that.

[stormtracker]

Im already annoyed with this "thread".  When we start needing A+B+C minus GL to get snow....

[Warm Nose]

LWX:

[midatlanticweather]

Winter may be on its way out! No great hope on the GFS

[midatlanticweather]

WPC as of this AM

 

[nflwxman]

The GEFS is great tool in understanding where MSLP may fall at any given part of time, but it's a lower resolution product.  It's not necessarily going to pick up on a cold air wedge like an operational within 84 hours will.  The spread on lows is still huge and doesn't inspire confidence for any particular solution.  Winter is over talk is silly.

[Amped]

Euro is rain, road trip to Alabama anyone?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Euro is rain, road trip to Alabama anyone?

How do you know that so fast?

[Ji]

Euro is rain, road trip to Alabama anyone?

lets hope its the euro being the euro and too amped up...plus the parrell does not agree

[Amped]

How do you know that so fast?

Instant weather maps or pivotal weather. May start frozen but its a cutter.

[EB89]

Apps runner

[stormtracker]

Thread delivers.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Instant weather maps or pivotal weather. May start frozen but its a cutter.

2m temps are cold at 132

[Amped]

lets hope its the euro being the euro and too amped up...plus the parrell does not agree

If the southern stream digs were screwed, its SE flow on steroids.

[mitchnick]

Instant weather maps or pivotal weather. May start frozen but its a cutter.

and it's not like the 5H looks all that bad, location and strength, but consider no blocking/50-50 low, we're doomed

500mb day 6

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

[Ian]

this area and this winter both suck

[snowfan]

Torch. Low-mid 40s by 12z tuesday for the 95 crew.

[Bob Chill]

Ukie and euro cuttin a rug. They could be wrong but there's no compelling argument to say why they are.

[CAPE]

2m temps are cold at 132

torching at 144

[Ji]

this area and this winter both suck

we cant even get a snowstorm the day after its zero degrees