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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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Lots of noise within the runs but the axis of snow on the GEFS has shifted steadily NW with each run.  True that the mean at DC has stayed about the same but that could be as we get closer it has upped its significance so the edges get more but the axis of heaviest the last 4 runs shifted from right up 95 18z to up the peidmont 0z, up the blue ridge 6z and now up the spine of the apps 12z. 

Not going to dispute that as I haven't checked, but the last gefs mean was the snowiest at my location in the last 5 runs.  And I don't get upslope, so ................

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Not going to dispute that as I haven't checked, but the last gefs mean was the snowiest at my location in the last 5 runs. And I don't get upslope, so ................

because as the axis shifted west it also increased amounts as its moved away from a sheared out system towards a more amped one. Your on the east side of the heaviest but that's more then being under the heaviest axis was in previous runs. Still far out to worry over slight shifts but the trend is the wrong way.
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Swiscaster

Swiscaster

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This is rather aggressive by LWX (70% chance of snow over 4 days out!):

 

Washington's Birthday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
Monday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
 
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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LOL..........has he got a rationale for the GFS as well?

the gfs is better with track but will adjust with the cold. Same old bs. It will snow and anything that shows otherwise is wrong. His forecast doesn't even make sense with itself as his analogs are all rainers up 95 then he said 6". I said in banter I miss when he was a good read back in the early 2000s before he got all political and off the deep end. I like wxbell for the model access but watch his vids less and less.
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snowman19

snowman19

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the gfs is better with track but will adjust with the cold. Same old bs. It will snow and anything that shows otherwise is wrong. His forecast doesn't even make sense with itself as his analogs are all rainers up 95 then he said 6". I said in banter I miss when he was a good read back in the early 2000s before he got all political and off the deep end. I like wxbell for the model access but watch his vids less and less.

No shock that JB is spinning this into a major snowstorm. So all the models are dead wrong in his view? Lol Just mind boggling why people pay for his forecasts anymore. He has become unreadable. I stopped paying for his forecasts back in 2012 when he kept calling for a massive arctic outbreak that February and we all know how that turned out.
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BTRWx

BTRWx

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the gfs is better with track but will adjust with the cold. Same old bs. It will snow and anything that shows otherwise is wrong. His forecast doesn't even make sense with itself as his analogs are all rainers up 95 then he said 6". I said in banter I miss when he was a good read back in the early 2000s before he got all political and off the deep end. I like wxbell for the model access but watch his vids less and less.

How are his videos political?

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