#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[EastCoast NPZ]

Road trip to Columbus? 

 

All you have to do is go to Canaan.

[EastCoast NPZ]

And what the heck is causing the heavy snow out into the Atlantic?

[H2O]

...and that's a wrap.  Call it.  Time of death: Feb 11, 2016 1:23 PM.

 

RIP PD3 #13.

 

GFS had this first.  It wins

[H2O]

And what the heck is causing the heavy snow out into the Atlantic?

 

moisture

[CAPE]

Looks like a decent amount of snow out here per that map.  Is the Euro keeping us snow the whole time, or is that a reflection of the backlash/upslope that follow behind the storm?

Looks like pretty much all snow there. Maybe a few hours in the 30s so maybe some mix but looks solid. I am on my way.

[EastCoast NPZ]

moisture

 

LOL.  Thank you.

[H2O]

There's no snow anywhere.

 

Yes there is.  Nome is getting PUMMELED

[psuhoffman]

Just laughable really. 4 days away and models

Have no idea whether it's Ohio valley, over applchns, or 75 miles off midcAtlantic coast

They did well on the big snow but generally not so well otherwise and I still think they try to be way too precise too far out and thus one fly landing on a tree in the smokies allows for an entirely different solution. Try using binoculars instead of a microscope and the product well may be more useful

Yea, accurately modeling the entire global atmosphere using incomplete mathematical equations and with incomplete input data since we don't have reporting stations over every inch of the Earth with 100 percent accuracy 100 hours into the future is extremely difficult.  In equally shocking news the Earth is round, the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, and this same old rant is getting old. 

[H2O]

WTF? Rain storm. Unreal.

 

no its very real.  Unreal would be puppy monkey babies

[psuhoffman]

Looks like a decent amount of snow out here per that map.  Is the Euro keeping us snow the whole time, or is that a reflection of the backlash/upslope that follow behind the storm?

A lot of that is upslope coming this weekend but the 24 hour maps do indicate you get some snow from the storm.  looks like a quick 5-7" up the spine of the apps through your area before it changes to driving rain. 

[Bob Chill]

Meanwhile the GGEM ENS have improved from 0z.  Show far fewer cutters than it's predecessor suite. 

 

Edit: At this range operationals are still pretty unskilled.  Though even the ensembles favor a switch the rain.

 

Pretty much have to rely on ensembles for the most likely track. I know you know this of course.  Euro could be right but we still have no run to run consistency out of the ops. Might not for a couple days.  

[stormtracker]

Looks like a decent amount of snow out here per that map.  Is the Euro keeping us snow the whole time, or is that a reflection of the backlash/upslope that follow behind the storm?

Might be time to add some color up your way again.  

[psuhoffman]

And what the heck is causing the heavy snow out into the Atlantic?

Ocean effect snow during the arctic air this weekend

[Warm Nose]

Not buying the erosion of this airmass that quickly.

[Ian]

And what the heck is causing the heavy snow out into the Atlantic?

Mix of ocean effect from cold air and system that develops off Carolina coast and moves NE before main sys.

[usedtobe]

I love writing articles on inland cutters,so much fun.   I also love chaos,  not Maxwell Smarts version but true chaos. 

[usedtobe]

Not buying the erosion of this airmass that quickly.

If you have a wound up low tracking northeast right over DC with a strong pressure gradient out ahead of it, the temps will moderate pretty quickly.   Keep the winds light, and the cold air will hold in. 

[Wonderdog]

Seems like a very extreme change in the course of 12 hours on the modeling. From a front end dump to hurricaine force winds over the bay. Maybe the models are using the wrong vort.

[ers-wxman1]

There are enough moving parts, and we do have cold in front, to keep me somewhat interested another day or two but todays runs are pretty awful in that I can see where they are headed (less suppression from the clipper and more amped system) and it ends badly for us with nothing to hold the cold in place. That said I am shocked at how many are acting like the blizzard didn't happen. We knew this year would lean warm given the nino and we had a higher then normal threat for a HECS but that getting a ton of hits might be difficult. So far things have gone to climo except we got lucky and our big hit came fairly early. We have had some chances for more that havent worked out and we probably arent done yet. I tend not to cancel winter in mid Feb when the latest ensembles both paint 3-6" across the area in the coming 15 days and are building a monster -EPO towards late Feb as well as indications the MJO is about to blast back into favorable phases soon. Yea I would rather my snow come spread out in several storms but we can't get our perfect winter every year. Maybe we get another event or two to hit and maybe not but nothing indicates its over and at least we had the HECS.

That is my thought as well. We were blessed with a phenomenal event! One for the record books over many cities. For me personally...35" plus was the best I've ever experienced. It's a crazy El Niño year. If nothing else happens, I go into spring knowing I experienced the blizzard of 2016.

[eurojosh]

no its very real.  Unreal would be puppy monkey babies

 

[jonjon]

A lot of that is upslope coming this weekend but the 24 hour maps do indicate you get some snow from the storm.  looks like a quick 5-7" up the spine of the apps through your area before it changes to driving rain. 

Thanks, I forgot about the upslope this weekend.

[jonjon]

Might be time to add some color up your way again.  

You are welcome any time!!

[EastCoast NPZ]

Ocean effect snow during the arctic air this weekend

 

Thanks.  That had me confused looking only at the snow map.

 

*eta:  You too, Ian.

[dailylurker]

How much rain is euro showing? I would at least like a good wind and rain storm. Wouldn't mind a flooder. Hopefully the hurricane winds over the bay is real. That could be fun. I just want a good storm.

[gymengineer]

How much rain is euro showing? I would at least like a good wind and rain storm. Wouldn't mind a flooder. Hopefully the hurricane winds over the bay is real. That could be fun. I just want a good storm.

The winds in the Euro solution are outlandish. 50-80 mph wind gusts from the S and SE? That would be as damaging as just about any event we've ever had. 

[dailylurker]

The winds in the Euro solution are outlandish. 50-80 mph wind gusts from the S and SE? That would be as damaging as just about any event we've ever had.

I know.. sounds fun

[ers-wxman1]

12z CMC is a a few hours of snow then ice then heavy rain east of the blue ridge. Eventual track goes offshore and perhaps a changeover but looks like a dynamic system for sure.

[psuhoffman]

Lots of noise within the runs but the axis of snow on the GEFS has shifted steadily NW with each run.  True that the mean at DC has stayed about the same but that could be as we get closer it has upped its significance so the edges get more but the axis of heaviest the last 4 runs shifted from right up 95 18z to up the peidmont 0z, up the blue ridge 6z and now up the spine of the apps 12z. 

[MDstorm]

The Euro giveth and the Euro taketh away.  It usually doesn't come back to giveth again.

 

MDstorm

[ers-wxman1]

Canadian is decent on the front end and for those well west of 95...frozen mix through 12z Tuesday and onset 00z.