#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[stormtracker]

We got time.  Euro will save the day.  As we get closer the cold air will be more pronounced.   We can will this to happen.

[Warm Nose]

Bastardi says he's using Dec. 26-27, 2012 as an analog for this forecast

[Wonderdog]

Yes, fairly often in the winter it is near the coast. But given the setup it makes sense it would back toward the Blue Ridge or so at least.

But the setup is not set in stone quite yet, right Ian?

[mitchnick]

mood flakes on the Euro at 42 hrs for DCA/BWI

[Wonderdog]

mood flakes on the Euro at 42 hrs for DCA/BWI

Maybe we need that little storm on the coast to blow up a little more on early morning Friday for us and change everything downstream

[mitchnick]

Euro Day 3 700mb RH

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

 

850 temps

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

 

 

slp

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

 

500mb

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

[paulythegun]

Through 60hr, euro a bit colder. High a bit stronger, can see it in the 850s

[Ian]

But the setup is not set in stone quite yet, right Ian?

Sure, but we're battling a less than optimal setup. Euro's going to be slower than last night which probably isn't a great thing.

[paulythegun]

High moving away much slower compared to 00z run. Gets DCA to 9F Sunday morning.

[mitchnick]

Euro day 4

 

700mb RH

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

 

850 temps

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

 

slp

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

 

500mb

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

[Ian]

Yeh this run is a good bit different on the front end. Low consolidating over MS river at 18z Mon and still dry.. was snowing last run in area.

[Ian]

Light snow moves in b/w 18z and 0z on Mon.. a little colder but I don't think it'll matter.

[stormtracker]

Yeh this run is a good bit different on the front end. Low consolidating over MS river at 18z Mon and still dry.. was snowing last run in area.

Sigh.  I'm gonna give this one more day to come around.  It will.

[Ian]

Yeah this run is going to suck. Torching above as it moves this way up the apps.

[mitchnick]

At 102 hrs., looks west

[mitchnick]

Day 5

 

700mb

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

 

850 temps

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

 

slp

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

 

500mb

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

[MacintoshPro]

Temps are above freezing before the precipitation even begins.

[Ian]

Low nearing RIC at 15z Tue. 32 line in Canada.

[mitchnick]

Low nearing RIC at 15z Tue. 32 line in Canada.

Canada, VA?

[kurtstack]

we need a needle thread track. 999 over nags head seems to be the eye of that needle. looking unlikely we get that.

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[Ian]

992 riding the Blue Ridge NW of DC.. 50s into region at 18z Tue.

[ezweather]

Low is literally over central PA by 126 hours..Tuesday afternoon. Move that heavy snow even further west with this track. 

[Bob Chill]

992 riding the Blue Ridge NW of DC.. 50s into region at 18z Tue.

 

Wedges?

[EastCoast NPZ]

Canada, VA?

 

Hopefully it's a place in SE VA.

[Ian]

Basically up the apps or just east to Syracuse. Not a good track.

[Ian]

Wedges?

Could be. haha.

[mitchnick]

Hopefully it's a place in SE VA.

I was just hoping there was a town in VA called Canada   

[HighStakes]

Low is literally over central PA by 126 hours..Tuesday afternoon. Move that heavy snow even further west with this track. 

There's no snow anywhere.

[EastCoast NPZ]

...and that's a wrap.  Call it.  Time of death: Feb 11, 2016 1:23 PM.

 

RIP PD3 #13.

[Bob Chill]

If it's going to fail for snow it may as well be exciting some other way...