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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

Given the setup yes it should.   If that run showed trough going negative in Alabama with no high anchored in to the north and then a coastal lp off of NC then that would make no sense.  It's not about what's typical or atypical the weather pattern at hand dictates where it's going to go.  If you want to wish-cast and just ignore the setup and call it atypical then that's your prerogative I guess. 

Everyone is right and wrong in different places. People just have different perceptions. Nothing is one/two dimensional in the atmosphere.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

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I see your point.  But isn't that zone usually along or off the coast?

I think that is what Ian was getting at, that zone usually is somewhere else, typically closer to the coast when a storm is coming up east of the Apps or to the west of them, rarely right up the spine but given the right variables there is nothing saying its impossible for it to happen.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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Ukie is another thump with slp over the Bay, but the 72 hr precip gives you a good idea that there will be a good bit of overrunning precip ahead of the main show.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072

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needbiggerboat

needbiggerboat

Posted
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This may be for banter, but forget PDIII. This could be more like VDII 9 years later. ;)

If there's one thing about VD, its persistence. Took me a long time to recover from that one.

Would rather have an in and out event, no lingering effects. Not as wet and warm as the 12z GFS. Something that leaves the white stuff, and it's fine if it's messy as long as is can be cleaned up easy.

Other models may be better looking and create some arousal of interest. Will certainly be a long and hard few days ahead. Might be able to come from behind and have a nice climax if that Euro model is flexible with p-type and keeps the track stiff.

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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted

Ao trending pos, pna trending neg, pos nao, HP east of Newfoundland, no blocking, no 50/50 low. The teleconnections are lousy. Dont get hopes up too high in the big cities and you will be fine. Front end thump thanks to frigid antecedent airmass but quickly (relatively speaking) over to rain for many. Maybe this is our sacrificial period where the pattern relaxes because most signs point to more cold and DRYNESS after the moderation next week. Hang in.....winter isnt over just yet imo.

FYP, and yes, sadly THAT would be and is typical.....

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Ukie is another thump with slp over the Bay, but the 72 hr precip gives you a good idea that there will be a good bit of overrunning precip ahead of the main show.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072

 

That's something that was absent on the GFS run. The light snow early monday was from the lead vort. Euro and para euro both have a nice front running slug. Nice to see the Ukie keeping up that theme. 

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BTRWx

BTRWx

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If there's one thing about VD, its persistence. Took me a long time to recover from that one.

Would rather have an in and out event, no lingering effects. Not as wet and warm as the 12z GFS. Something that leaves the white stuff, and it's fine if it's messy as long as is can be cleaned up easy.

Other models may be better looking and create some arousal of interest. Will certainly be a long and hard few days ahead. Might be able to come from behind and have a nice climax if that Euro model is flexible with p-type and keeps the track stiff.

Someone please hack the wiki page and remove the b word. ;)

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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Let me rephrase where I was trying to go with this.  "Typical" tracks are all relative to the pattern at hand and to call that track the GFS portrays atypical given the pattern is wrong.   :P

Ok.  I think we got off on the wrong foot.  I'm usually pretty honest with myself about what is going to happen.  Two days ago, I knew for an absolute certainty that I wasn't getting snow regardless of my forecast.  On this one, I was just pointing out that I don't see it happening like the gfs was showing.  Not that it can't happen, it just doesn't seem to be a winter storm track we see here.  My comment wasnt based on what I want.

 

Even if it does happen differently, that still doesn't mean we end up with a better result.  Lots of ways to get screwed here.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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I think that is what Ian was getting at, that zone usually is somewhere else, typically closer to the coast when a storm is coming up east of the Apps or to the west of them, rarely right up the spine but given the right variables there is nothing saying its impossible for it to happen.

Yeah, and that's what I was saying.  The piedmont is not usually the winter track.  And yeah, anything is possible.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

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Ok.  I think we got off on the wrong foot.  I'm usually pretty honest with myself about what is going to happen.  Two days ago, I knew for an absolute certainty that I wasn't getting snow regardless of my forecast.  On this one, I was just pointing out that I don't see it happening like the gfs was showing.  Not that it can't happen, it just doesn't seem to be a winter storm track we see here.  My comment wasnt based on what I want.

 

Even if it does happen differently, that still doesn't mean we end up with a better result.  Lots of ways to get screwed here.

Lol, less than here. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Isn't that all forms of ice because of the not so great algorithm that they use?

 

It looks like Wxbell has greatly improved the algo this year. Not seeing the big disconnects when you look at different panels that clearly argue against any snow. 

 

With that being said, the .5 degree grid spacing with the gefs members and an event with razor sharp ptype gradients doesn't give me much confidence in the ind member solutions. 

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BTRWx

BTRWx

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It looks like Wxbell has greatly improved the algo this year. Not seeing the big disconnects when you look at different panels that clearly argue against any snow. 

 

With that being said, the .5 degree grid spacing with the gefs members and an event with razor sharp ptype gradients doesn't give me much confidence in the ind member solutions. 

What types of systems are individual members good for? That's something I have not really dug into before.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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I see your point.  But isn't that zone usually along or off the coast?

Yes, fairly often in the winter it is near the coast. But given the setup it makes sense it would back toward the Blue Ridge or so at least.

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baseball0618

baseball0618

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Ok.  I think we got off on the wrong foot.  I'm usually pretty honest with myself about what is going to happen.  Two days ago, I knew for an absolute certainty that I wasn't getting snow regardless of my forecast.  On this one, I was just pointing out that I don't see it happening like the gfs was showing.  Not that it can't happen, it just doesn't seem to be a winter storm track we see here.  My comment wasnt based on what I want.

 

Even if it does happen differently, that still doesn't mean we end up with a better result.  Lots of ways to get screwed here.

No problem I didn't initially portray my sentiments the right way either.  My bad and yes there are many more ways to end up wet rather than white in this particular occasion.  Front end thump seems very plausible, but to what extent and then if this storm winds up it's curtains for most east of the apps. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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What types of systems are individual members good for? That's something I have not really dug into before.

 

Ones where ptype isn't a glaring concern. The lower resoluton with the GEFS can play tricks on you. Euro ens have twice the resolution right now and are going even higher next month if they verify better than the current. 

 

Maps like these from the GEFS are telling irt resolution issues with ptype problems. 

 

 

post-2035-0-44400400-1455212945_thumb.jp

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