#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[mitchnick]

12z GGEM:

 

108 -- 1006 MSLP in SE MS

120 --  997 MSLP SW SC/NW GA

144 -- 984 MSLP SNE

probably a thump to rain

 

 

[NinjaWarrior2]

GGEM is some front end snow, 2-4" then a gully washer. Low tracks through York, PA. Looks like at least 2" of freezing rain/rain for most. Worse than 00z but not a snowless disaster, but Flooding Concerns up the wazoo. >From IWM Paywall >>Yeah Snow to some Ice to Heavy Heavy Rain. GFS Ensemble mean slightly less snowy.

[BTRWx]

I really don't know what happened to them this year. They are awful and for all the taxes paid, they should update at a reasonable pace.

It's the para.

[yoda]

GGEM is some front end snow, 2-4" then a gully washer. Low tracks through York, PA. Looks like at least 2" of rain for most.

 

Dang thats fast... its not even on meteocentre yet

[nflwxman]

GGEM is some front end snow, 2-4" then a gully washer. Low tracks through York, PA. Looks like at least 2" of rain for most. Worse than 00z but not a snowless disaster, but Flooding Concerns up the wazoo.

 

yeah, 2-4" seems like a reasonable baseline for 95.  GGEM looks like a major ice storm for the interior parts of VA and MD.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I use another forum for my local weather chatter, but come here on occasion just to read thoughts and such.  However, to make a comment that there is a "typical" LP track is asinine.  Would he make that comment if the LP tracked to Jacksonville and due north delivering snow to his backyard?  No. but since the track the GFS portrays isn't snowy therefore it's atypical?  It's weenieism at it's finest.  All LP tracks are driven by the weather pattern and the overall synoptics involved at that time.  I am not syaing this will be the ultimate outcome but to call the track atypical is flawed logic. 

Jacksonville due north is not a typical track either.

 

We don't need you here.  You are flat wrong if you don't think there are low tracks that are more typical than others.

 

For instance, if you show me a clipper low modeled to pass through Ky and across southern Va at 5 days, I'd say that's not typical and it's likely to pass to our north.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

No doubt.  I just don't think its a very common one for our area.

 

I hear the term Apps runner all the time, but we almost never see those either.

 

I don't think there's cause for alarm because of this run.  The gfs and euro ens are probably gonna lead the way at this point.

From someone that lives in an area that roots for inland runners and the infamous apps runner, they are much more uncommon than a storm running up the coast or just off shore.

[Ian]

GEM blows the first low into the area (992 into southern VA) then redevelops offshore NC. Not sure about that.

[nflwxman]

GEM blows the first low into the area then redevelops offshore. Not sure about that.

 

Some of the old Euro runs 2 days ago did that.  I doubt there is enough confluence for that, but we'll see how this cold air mass does.

[baseball0618]

Jacksonville due north is not a typical track either.

 

We don't need you here.  You are flat wrong if you don't think there are low tracks that are more typical than others.

 

For instance, if you show me a clipper low modeled to pass through Ky and across southern Va at 5 days, I'd say that's not typical and it's likely to pass to our north.

I agree some will just never occur because they can't  and some may occur more than others, but in this case there is nothing synoptically that argues against it in any way shape or form and to call it atypical is just wrong!  If there was a massive high parked over Maine or the great lakes than this GFS run would make no sense synoptically but if you take the time to look past the surface maps, where else could this go given what the GFS is showing? 

[mitchnick]

Some of the old Euro runs 2 days ago did that.  I doubt there is enough confluence for that, but we'll see how this cold air mass does.

GEM  usually overdoes confusion rather than confluence.

[Bob Chill]

Not based on one model run but based on the evolution of the whole season. It seems like more times than not we are chasing conditions favorable for snow...IE it's too warm and need dynamic or evaporative cooling, track not good, cold air residence time off, no blocking etc.

 

This statement applies to 90% of our winters though. We score weird or messed up events far more often than big ones. Of course the big ones are much more memorable but living here for 37 of the last 44 years this winter is much more "normal" overall than anything else. 

[ers-wxman1]

Some of the old Euro runs 2 days ago did that. I doubt there is enough confluence for that, but we'll see how this cold air mass does.

Hoping the old forecaster rule of thumb rings true that arctic air masses don't leave as fast as predicted...tending to linger a bit longer. Pattern is pretty progressive on this one though.

[yoda]

12z UKIE

 

96 -- 1011mb over New Orleans

120-- 993mb S VA

[nflwxman]

This statement applies to 90% of our winters though. We score weird or messed up events far more often than big ones. Of course the big ones are much more memorable but living here for 37 of the last 44 years this winter is much more "normal" overall than anything else. 

 

Yeah.  Noone claimed this setup was perfect.  No blocking, but have a resident cold air mass in place makes a huge difference.  It's just not common to have 40 degree swings in 24 hours in the Mid Atlantic under cloud cover.  While the upper levels will likely retreat quickly, the wedge at the surface will not.

[Ian]

From someone that lives in an area that roots for inland runners and the infamous apps runner, they are much more uncommon than a storm running up the coast or just off shore.

A true apps runner isn't that common. Lows tend to favor one side or the other. But there's no reason to say one can't run up just east of the mtns esp if it's following a sharp baroclinic zone.

[BTRWx]

I agree some will just never occur because they can't  and some may occur more than others, but in this case there is nothing synoptically that argues against it in any way shape or form and to call it atypical is just wrong!  If there was a massive high parked over Maine or the great lakes than this GFS run would make no sense synoptically but if you take the time to look past the surface maps, where else could this go given what the GFS is showing? 

Since this isn't just a two-way forum, I'll add the fact that a coastal over water is typical and one over the Appalachians is not, because it's a runner and not a coastal.

[BTRWx]

Yeah.  Noone claimed this setup was perfect.  No blocking, but have a resident cold air mass in place makes a huge difference.  It's just not common to have 40 degree swings in 24 hours in the Mid Atlantic under cloud cover.  While the upper levels will likely retreat quickly, the wedge at the surface will not.

Interesting. That makes me wonder, could the cloud cover actually help sustain cad around here?

[baseball0618]

Since this isn't just a two-way forum, I'll add the fact that a coastal over water is typical and one over the Appalachians is not.

Yes but it all depends on the current weather pattern and this one argues against that heavily. I have been kind of misunderstood here and that could be partially my fault, but all I am trying to say is given the synoptic setup portrayed by the 12Z GFS that LP track should not be considered atypical given the overall setup it depicts. Where else can it go?  

[Bob Chill]

Yeah.  Noone claimed this setup was perfect.  No blocking, but have a resident cold air mass in place makes a huge difference.  It's just not common to have 40 degree swings in 24 hours in the Mid Atlantic under cloud cover.  While the upper levels will likely retreat quickly, the wedge at the surface will not.

 

I've been 100% expecting some or all rain from this. The + height anomaly off to the NE is a literal "red flag"  that there are going to be problems. I'm just trying to figure out how to score a couple inches. If I get less than 2" out of this I will be disappointed but that's probably too optimistic. It has enough going for it to do better than 2" but we still don't have run to run consistency at all. Once we do we can each decide for our yard's location whether to throw in the towel or expect some snow. 

[psuhoffman]

Well, at this point, we all gotta hope that the models are eroding the airmass too quickly or some weenie-jujitsu we can rely on.

with the ridging to our northeast they aren't. If, and this is still an if, the low goes up over us or west we are toast. This isn't a setup where the cold can hold on long enough with a bad track. There is nothing to hold it in. that northern stream clipper and front runner is the key. Hope for stronger on both. Force the development of the system as far southeast as possible because the minute that low starts to amp up and the trough goes neg warm air will surge north up the coast east of the track. If the low starts to get going west of our lat it's game over. Root for one of those northern waves to suppress things and delay the trough getting its act together. Get the low to start to amp up over eastern ga or sc and we are ok. It starts smoking up before it gets east of Atlanta and were toast.

[WinterWxLuvr]

GEM blows the first low into the area (992 into southern VA) then redevelops offshore NC. Not sure about that.

 

You mean that's not typical........

[Ralph Wiggum]

Ao trending pos, pna trending neg, pos nao, HP east of Newfoundland, no blocking, no 50/50 low. The teleconnections are lousy. Dont get hopes up too high in the big cities and you will be fine. Front end thump thanks to frigid antecedent airmass but quickly (relatively speaking) over to rain for many. Maybe this is our sacrificial period where the pattern relaxes because most signs point to more cold and storminess after the moderation next week. Hang in.....winter isnt over just yet imo.

[WinterWxLuvr]

A true apps runner isn't that common. Lows tend to favor one side or the other. But there's no reason to say one can't run up just east of the mtns esp if it's following a sharp baroclinic zone.

I see your point.  But isn't that zone usually along or off the coast?

[baseball0618]

You mean that's not typical........

Let me rephrase where I was trying to go with this.  "Typical" tracks are all relative to the pattern at hand and to call that track the GFS portrays atypical given the pattern is wrong.  

[BTRWx]

Interesting. That makes me wonder, could the cloud cover actually help sustain cad around here?

thicker cloud cover that is

[BTRWx]

Yes but it all depends on the current weather pattern and this one argues against that heavily. I have been kind of misunderstood here and that could be partially my fault, but all I am trying to say is given the synoptic setup portrayed by the 12Z GFS that LP track should not be considered atypical given the overall setup it depicts. Where else can it go?  

Nor should it be considered typical (neither)

[baseball0618]

Nor should it be considered typical (neither)

Given the setup yes it should.   If that run showed trough going negative in Alabama with no high anchored in to the north and then a coastal lp off of NC then that would make no sense.  It's not about what's typical or atypical the weather pattern at hand dictates where it's going to go.  If you want to wish-cast and just ignore the setup and call it atypical then that's your prerogative I guess. 

[psuhoffman]

Not looking good. Seems like our winter happened Jan 22-23. That sometimes happens in these strong El Niño years.

you know luck has a lot to do with this. We have had a decent pattern much of the time since jan 10 or so. We had an opportunity mid jan messed up by a poorly timed lobe of the pv splitting off and causing enough ridging to our north to screw up the low levels on a good trough and slp track. Had a coastal miss east a week after the blizzard. Another one just missed to our east last week. Then this recent mess was awful luck with that ocean storm missing the phase with the great trough by about 24 hours. Or even just get rid of that and we would have had a bomb with the trough. This next one isn't over yet. And I see nothing to indicate it's over in the long range. I don't think we have had an awful pattern as much as awful luck at getting something else at least small to hit. I said this around this time last year and I'll repeat, If we keep getting shots we may eventually score.

[BTRWx]

Let me rephrase where I was trying to go with this.  "Typical" tracks are all relative to the pattern at hand and to call that track the GFS portrays atypical given the pattern is wrong.  

Everything the GFS spits out is atypical. lol