#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[Bob Chill]

  On 2/11/2016 at 3:35 PM, yoda said:

Surface 0c goes way west at 132

It's mostly over by then though. And I would guess temps still in the 30's with a low track like that.

I not going to dissect much other than it was a big favorable shift from 0z.

[psuhoffman]

  On 2/11/2016 at 3:28 PM, mitchnick said:

Obviously, we would do better if reality is for the lead wave to develop since there is less cold air erosion (keeping with the sooner the better theory.)

or get the lead wave to delay the development until it's far enough east not to matter. That is kind of what the 0z op euro did. The low does run the coast due north but far enough east to spare us the deluge

[yoda]

I-81 corridor won't like the para GFS run... looks like 0.5-0.6 QPF in metro DC

[Ian]

Why do we keep talking about the DGEX?

[Bob Chill]

  On 2/11/2016 at 3:39 PM, Ian said:

Why do we keep talking about the DGEX?

Because it shows what we want of course. I didn't look at it though. Lol

[BTRWx]

  On 2/11/2016 at 3:35 PM, Mikethemanatee said:

What's our precipitation before the flip on the 6z para?

Much less between blue .5 and 1" versus 1.5" to 3" purples from 0Z. Western areas are shafted

 

eta: Did 0Z pop 4" qpf...gee-wiz!

 

6Z

 

0Z

[yoda]

  On 2/11/2016 at 3:36 PM, BTRWx said:

Maybe he's looking at a different layer?

 

No, I was looking at the 2m surface layer... everything else is good

[psuhoffman]

  On 2/11/2016 at 3:34 PM, BTRWx said:

Why are those ewall maps so anti-user-friendly!?

old interface that hasn't been updated ever.

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 2/11/2016 at 3:38 PM, yoda said:

I-81 corridor won't like the para GFS run... looks like 0.5-0.6 QPF in metro DC

Yeah, no sh*t....lol.

[mitchnick]

  On 2/11/2016 at 3:39 PM, Ian said:

Why do we keep talking about the DGEX?

because of this!

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/12394-feb-5-6-2010-snowmageddon/?p=426140

[Interstate]

  On 2/11/2016 at 3:39 PM, Ian said:

Why do we keep talking about the DGEX?

Because it gives us the most snow

[stormtracker]

  On 2/11/2016 at 3:37 PM, Bob Chill said:

It's mostly over by then though. And I would guess temps still in the 30's with a low track like that.

I not going to dissect much other than it was a big favorable shift from 0z.

Yeah, it's not as bad as he made it out to be.  I looks better than 0z for us anyway.

[BTRWx]

Fwiw, both 6Z GFS runs show very similar cold air damming swaths around 0Z Tuesday, but messier soon thereafter.

[psuhoffman]

It does highlight the flaws with this setup when we're flirting with both the nw fringe and the rain snow line on the same run!

ETA: for days most guidance has suggested a very narrow region gets anything significant because the cold is retreating so you don't get a great area coverage of waa snow.

[Ian]

Here's a daily on the first Jan 1987 storm. Some similarities but I'd say the pattern was a bit better overall. That's gotta be a low end -NAO at least?

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

12z GFS gives us accumulating snow before dawn on Monday.

[Ian]

Yeah, here's the values for Jan 22 1987

 

AO = -1.721 NAO = -0.981
 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Don't like how the shortwave has dug more at 105, not sure that would end well for the cities.

[Bob Chill]

  On 2/11/2016 at 4:01 PM, DCTeacherman said:

Don't like how the shortwave has dug more at 105, not sure that would end well for the cities.

 

Yep, slower is worser

[yoda]

1004 in N AL at 111 doesn't look to bad

[stormtracker]

Yeah, we're toast on the GFS

[psuhoffman]

  On 2/11/2016 at 3:55 PM, Ian said:

Here's a daily on the first Jan 1987 storm. Some similarities but I'd say the pattern was a bit better overall. That's gotta be a low end -NAO at least?

thanks Ian. Very similar if you just look at the eastern us but globally some big differences as you pointed out. We have a better starting airmass though so perhaps that offsets the worse north atlantic

[stormtracker]

  On 2/11/2016 at 4:02 PM, Bob Chill said:

Yep, slower is worser

I'd pay good money for a High in Quebec right now. 

[PDIII]

Looks a little bit further south and slightly stronger on the GFS as compared with the 6Z

[NinjaWarrior2]

Yeah, will be warmest/furthest west for GFS by far, little if any snow for most of the area quickly to rain. Mid 40s by 10am Tuesday, Torchy Torch

[psuhoffman]

  On 2/11/2016 at 4:03 PM, yoda said:

1004 in N AL at 111 doesn't look to bad

Id rather that was in Georgia at that time. This is going to cut hard once it starts to deepen with all the ridging ahead of it.

[Bob Chill]

  On 2/11/2016 at 4:04 PM, stormtracker said:

I'd pay good money for a High in Quebec right now. 

 

12z is a straight up disaster. At least we get an inch early mon morning. 

[yoda]

123 in S NC/N SC border

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

  On 2/11/2016 at 4:03 PM, stormtracker said:

Yeah, we're toast on the GFS

 

Surface almost 10C at hour 123 in DC.  Let's hope the Euro keeps it's eggs in the first wave basket I guess.  

[stormtracker]

  On 2/11/2016 at 4:05 PM, Bob Chill said:

12z is a straight up disaster. At least we get an inch early mon morning. 

It's ugly..probably worst GFS run yet.