Hoosier Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What a BS write up. " looks less, but could be more". No balls! Ride 2.2" and sweat it. Disagree. I like how it mentioned the factors in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Disagree. I like how it mentioned the factors in play. I know it's taboo to call out Izzi here. Best write ups I see at LOT these days are by a guy named RC. I just don't think you can say," it could be less, or it could be more". Trends are clearly toward the lower end of guidance. Own it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I know it's taboo to call out Izzi here. Best write ups I see at LOT these days are by a guy named RC. I just don't think you can say," it could be less, or it could be more". Trends are clearly toward the lower end of guidance. Own it. RC on the forums lol. You have a point, but to be fair, he isn't ignoring the mid-level lapse rates which would definitely lead to higher lollis due to mesoscale banding in some areas. Gino is a fantastic forecaster and fair play to him for taking everything into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 RC on the forums lol. You have a point, but to be fair, he isn't ignoring the mid-level lapse rates which would definitely lead to higher lollis due to mesoscale banding in some areas. Gino is a fantastic forecaster and fair play to him for taking everything into consideration. Would never question his forecast ability as an amateur (idiot). Questioned the point of the discussion. The good news is I spurred a post from an infrequent Illinois poster which is always good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 00z guidance a little drier for the QCA now. Dropped another 0.05" or so of qpf. After being too dry the Euro bumped up this morning, and the NCEP guidance adjusted down. Looks like they've sort of met in the middle to a consensus of around 0.2-0.25". Given the expected 15:1 type LSRs we should be good for about 3" of fluff. Kind of disappointed that the 4-5" potential has **** the bed, but if we get 3" of snow that will be a huge deal around these parts considering how asinine the snow has been since turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 With both waves of the NAM, NE and NC Iowa do quite well. Snowing in western IL now under that band. RGEM showing more moisture near I-80. I'm riding the forecast that was put out earlier today. No reason to change now. Banding always gives surprises. Cyclone you're getting over 4" - bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 00z guidance a little drier for the QCA now. Dropped another 0.05" or so of qpf. After being too dry the Euro bumped up this morning, and the NCEP guidance adjusted down. Looks like they've sort of met in the middle to a consensus of around 0.2-0.25". Given the expected 15:1 type LSRs we should be good for about 3" of fluff. Kind of disappointed that the 4-5" potential has **** the bed, but if we get 3" of snow that will be a huge deal around these parts considering how asinine the snow has been since turkey day. You'll get your 4-5. Be glass half full vs. half empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 You'll get your 4-5. Be glass half full vs. half empty. Wouldn't rule it out with the potential for banding which could help the LSRs some. However I think 3" is the safe call given the forecast qpf and expected ratios. 3" is still a good snow, so I'm good either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 00z guidance a little drier for the QCA now. Dropped another 0.05" or so of qpf. After being too dry the Euro bumped up this morning, and the NCEP guidance adjusted down. Looks like they've sort of met in the middle to a consensus of around 0.2-0.25". Given the expected 15:1 type LSRs we should be good for about 3" of fluff. Kind of disappointed that the 4-5" potential has **** the bed, but if we get 3" of snow that will be a huge deal around these parts considering how asinine the snow has been since turkey day. Yeah, it's been a gradual drawdown around here by the original wet models over the last 24 hours. 3 inches may be what I have to hope for at this point. It would be a big disappointment if we fall short of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Keep your fingers crossed the NAM is right about moisture. Widespread 0.25-0.3" of moisture in eastern Iowa. 4km NAM is generous as well. I have to say something is up with the snowfall maps for the 4km NAM. Showing ~0.15" of moisture by no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Glances at radar.... Welp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Glances at radar.... Welp It's ugly alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 3-6" was looking good about 36 hrs ago for the first wave. Now there's a very real chance I don't even see a flake fall. What a disorganized mess. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Glances at radar.... Welp Certainly expected/hoped that things were going to be a bit more organized this morning... **turd duster incoming** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Certainly expected/hoped that things were going to be a bit more organized this morning... **turd duster incoming** I thought the same thing. Looks like a June system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Could get 2 hours of heavy snow here. Upper levels are close to making this sleet though. About to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like the heavier returns just entered western Illinois, around Quincy area. Looks completely unimpressive. If we manage to squeak out the upper forecasted amount of 4" I would be shocked. Snow won't be around long, huge warmup lurking at the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Certainly expected/hoped that things were going to be a bit more organized this morning... **turd duster incoming** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Radar trends improving for LOT. Gonna get more than a DAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Radar trends improving for LOT. Gonna get more than a DAB Definitely. +SN under 25-30dbz returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 2-3" for ORD is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looked at the radar for the first time today and I think it looks pretty good. Getting some front end flurries right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Snowing good here with the heavy leading band on the doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Closing in on an inch or so. Coming down good right now with nice dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like a nice little pocket of heavy snow just south of Springfield. Taylorville visibility <1 mile right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Could get 2 hours of heavy snow here. Upper levels are close to making this sleet though. About to find out. Ended up with 2.5" so far. With near moderate snow falling again. Most of it fell in 45 mins of near white out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This has been one of the best weeks of winter in my life here. 4 heavy snows. 3 accumulating snows. 6 days with falling snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This has been one of the best weeks of winter in my life here. 4 heavy snows. 3 accumulating snows. 6 days with falling snows. Congrats, but you sure are making my snowfall predictions for St. Louis look bad. I would have never dreamed that you would be beating CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like some big flakes coming down in northern McHenry County right now. Hebron. Should be falling here by 12:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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