RCNYILWX Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yuge difference in the ensembles for the Tuesday clipper. GEFS way more amped than EPS and GEPS. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Can't wait to watch the Tuesday threat evaporate again No way that wave will be able to amplify with yet another large east coast system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z GFS looks lame. So over this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Got 3.7" in my grid forecast which sounds about right. Hopefully the GFS can pull this off. GFS looks to give you about 5" Chambana between both systems. 6z was a bit uptick in the amount of snow. Hopefully will see that on the 18z again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gonna get squashed bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gonna get squashed broGEFS trended flatter with the wave and weaker with the surface low compared to 06z but not really squashed south. Trend has been neutral/even slight positive tilt with the eastern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS will win out IMO. It nailed the last system with the snow band further north than the Canadian and EURO guidance. SREF plume mean at 4.1 here. 4.6" for ORD, 5.1 DKB, 4.0 GYY, 5.2" SQI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gonna get squashed bro euro agrees with you.... takes a southern route along or just south of i-70 weakening as it heads east from IN to OH. Looks like southern half of IL and IN are the winner on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 euro agrees with you.... takes a southern route along or just south of i-70 weakening as it heads east from IN to OH. Looks like southern half of IL and IN are the winner on the euro.The same Euro that is slowly caving on the big storm to the GFS? I think I'll pass on the Euro as it has not been good this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Riding 2.2 tomorrow .5 Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Riding 2.2 tomorrow .5 Tuesday 3 inches in 72 hours ranks as one of the better periods of our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hard times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro a slight bit wetter for western IL this run. Now has us up to 1/4". Other models in the 0.25-0.30" range. Figuring LSRs will be in the 14-17:1 range so 3-4" still looks good as long as we don't see any future reductions in qpf. The Euro and GEM both keep the Tue wave to the southwest, so not expecting much with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z NAM coming in a little juicier. About 5.5" for you Cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 WWA for 3-5" just dropped out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z NAM killed the second "event". #wintering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z NAM killed the second "event". #wintering Went further north. Don't fret, now there's a third wave it's showing for Wednesday! Entire run. No doubt Cyclone and Hawkeye will be the big winners this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z NAM killed the second "event". #wintering Count on 1-2 inches tomorrow. Drizzle on Wednesday, and 50 by Friday. Anything beyond that you should treat as a pleasant surprise and you'll never be disappointed. There's no crying in snow weenie land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Count on 1-2 inches tomorrow. Drizzle on Wednesday, and 50 by Friday. Anything beyond that you should treat as a pleasant surprise and you'll never be disappointed. There's no crying in snow weenie land. Trust me, not a snow weenie.. haha. I'd much rather severe weather than snow. I'm looking forward to the warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Trust me, not a snow weenie.. haha. I'd much rather severe weather than snow. I'm looking forward to the warmth! This might be your spring! Here's hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 HRRR showing a bullish southern MN band so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like a good 3-5" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 chicago nws update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL833 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016.UPDATE...832 PM CSTA FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.FIRST...HIGH CLOUDINESS IS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ANDNUDGED SKY COVER UP A BIT MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THECLOUDINESS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATEONLY A MODEST TEMP FALL FROM HERE ON OUT...MOST PRONOUNCED OVEREASTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE LATEST TO ARRIVE. ASCLOUDS THICKEN AND WINDS PICK UP TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN A SLOWUPWARD REBOUND PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.NARROW WNW-ESE BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN SNOW IS DEVELOPINGEASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHORT RANGEGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ASIT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. NOT UNCOMMON FOR SHORT RANGE GUIDANCETO WEAKEN SUCH FEATURES UNREALISTICALLY AND FOR THEM TO PERSISTLONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THEN COULD SEESNOW GRADUALLY INCH NORTHEAST INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN MOST CWA PRIORTO DAWN. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS POWERFUL SHORTWAVEOVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD. NLDN HASSHOWN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION BREAKING OUT IN ADVANCE OF THISFEATURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREES THAT THISSHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN DAMPENING OUT OVERNIGHT AND PARTICULARLY ONSUNDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OFDEPARTING UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CURRENT COLD SNAP.THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION TOMORROW IS HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW INADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENINGSYSTEM. MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TOMORROW...THOUGHSOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE COMING IN WOULD SUGGEST THAT SNOWFALLTOTALS COULD END UP BEING SKEWED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE LOWER ENDOF THE FORECAST RANGES.STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE COULD ALLOW SOME BANDING FEATURES TODEVELOP...EVEN THOUGH FORCING MAY BE WANING WITH TIME TOMORROW.ANY BANDING FEATURES THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCESNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COULD ALLOW SOME AREAS TO SEE SNOWFALLAMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AND MORE INLINE WITH HIGHER END OF OUR FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNT RANGES. GIVENTHE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES SEE NO REASONS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TOFORECAST AT THIS TIME.IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 chicago nws update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 833 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 .UPDATE... 832 PM CST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. FIRST...HIGH CLOUDINESS IS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND NUDGED SKY COVER UP A BIT MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUDINESS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATE ONLY A MODEST TEMP FALL FROM HERE ON OUT...MOST PRONOUNCED OVER EASTERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE LATEST TO ARRIVE. AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND WINDS PICK UP TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN A SLOW UPWARD REBOUND PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. NARROW WNW-ESE BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN SNOW IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. NOT UNCOMMON FOR SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO WEAKEN SUCH FEATURES UNREALISTICALLY AND FOR THEM TO PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THEN COULD SEE SNOW GRADUALLY INCH NORTHEAST INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN MOST CWA PRIOR TO DAWN. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS POWERFUL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD. NLDN HAS SHOWN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION BREAKING OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREES THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN DAMPENING OUT OVERNIGHT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CURRENT COLD SNAP. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION TOMORROW IS HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING SYSTEM. MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TOMORROW...THOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE COMING IN WOULD SUGGEST THAT SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD END UP BEING SKEWED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE FORECAST RANGES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE COULD ALLOW SOME BANDING FEATURES TO DEVELOP...EVEN THOUGH FORCING MAY BE WANING WITH TIME TOMORROW. ANY BANDING FEATURES THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COULD ALLOW SOME AREAS TO SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AND MORE IN LINE WITH HIGHER END OF OUR FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNT RANGES. GIVEN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES SEE NO REASONS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IZZI What a BS write up. " looks less, but could be more". No balls! Ride 2.2" and sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 0Z NAM showing the other wave clipper with very heavy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 0Z NAM showing the other wave clipper with very heavy precip Give it 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Give it 36 hours. I know, GFS is weaker and south. I assume that's what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wait til sampling occurs tomorrow for the 2nd wave. Hoping for better consensus. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What a BS write up. " looks less, but could be more". No balls! Ride 2.2" and sweat it. Izzi is the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.