A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If the clipper would survive into our area, We'd be golden. it's going to get undercut by the time it gets that far east might be time to punt bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CMC looks solid .30" liquid for a good chunk of the area, more west, less south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 CMCs great for Illinois, I have officially punted. On to the next storm I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 A couple days ago the NWS was siding with the drier CMC/Euro. Well, now the CMC has joined the wet GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 now we just need the euro to play nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Northern fringe here. Not a bad spot to be if the wave is significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z UK going with the GFS/CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 EURO always seems to be playing catch up these days. Between both waves, it looks like the area will end up with its deepest snow cover since November 22nd. CMC about the same as last night. Shaved about an inch off in far eastern IL. Hawkeye and Cyclone should be in for a solid 4"+ . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 An inch here while everywhere else gets hammered, sounds about right for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 hammered? nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 End of the 12z hi res NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 hammered? nah Compared to an inch, I would say so especially west of you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEFS members. I think the 2-5" call for the cwa sounds really good right now. Kind of figured the GFS would settle back south some - closer to its original position. For both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 End of the 12z hi res NMM wrf_ref_nmm_mw_49.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro trended a little wetter but still the most dry and continues to be a stubborn SOB 0.10" liquid east of 294 and 0.20" west of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Might go the whole season without needing to plow any snow. Only scraped the lots once this season, where the only reason was to warm up the plow and do a test run. Its all good to me, I don't mind all these little chemical plow events anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Would rather be farther west obviously but should be able to manage a few inches Sunday-Monday, and then we'll see after that. I don't trust the ECMWF qpf with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Would rather be farther west obviously but should be able to manage a few inches Sunday-Monday, and then we'll see after that. I don't trust the ECMWF qpf with this. i'm feeling a lot better discounting it as this point nice consensus for around .25-.30 at ORD with good ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 DGZ looks to be pretty darn thick for most of us. Quality environment to get some nice fluffy totals even if the liquid amounts don't pan out. We're gonna see some nice surprises with this system. This thing should be fully sampled by tonight no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 SREF plumes spiked considerably for ORD from 03z to 09z. Mean went from 3.13 to 4.52. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 SREF plumes all over 4" in NE IL now. 5" west of the Fox River and now up to 6" out by Cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Might get more snow today then this clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 SREF plumes all over 4" in NE IL now. 5" west of the Fox River and now up to 6" out by Cyclone. Trends are looking good for the Iowa crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 SREF plumes all over 4" in NE IL now. 5" west of the Fox River and now up to 6" out by Cyclone. That's 9z run info. 15z should be out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Trends are looking good for the Iowa crew. Just need to beef up the amounts east of I-39 a bit more. But we got the Tuesday clipper also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That's 9z run info. 15z should be out soon came down but tighter cluster 2-4 looks money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 DGZ looks to be pretty darn thick for most of us. Quality environment to get some nice fluffy totals even if the liquid amounts don't pan out. We're gonna see some nice surprises with this system. This thing should be fully sampled by tonight no? The wave will not be fully sampled until 12z tomorrow.Good points about the DGZ depth. Even the Euro liquid equivalent could fluff up to 2-4" here if we get ~20:1 ratios, which are certainly possible with that deep of a DGZ. Also the fact that it's a Pacific wave rather than a true clipper so moisture quality could be decent. GFS is showing an envelope of above normal pwat as the system tracks southeast despite the Arctic airmass in place. Always seems to be surprises with clippers for better or worse, but I think there's good reasons to be optimistic for a solid advisory type event for MN, IA, northern IL, southern WI and possibly into northwest IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z NAM is almost a complete whiff here. Iowa into SW LOT do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z NAM is almost a complete whiff here. Iowa into SW LOT do well. I think the NAM is just being itself. It was south and drier with the 2/2 storm initially also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Flip the switch, Geos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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