Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z GFS even better than the 0z run for northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 would feel a lot better if the euro came on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'd fee a lot better if GEOS was posting more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'd fee l better if GEOS was posting more. winter 2015/2016, the year the Geos magnet died Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GEM a good deal wetter at 60hrs compared to 0z run with the fronto band from south central SD southeast into southwest IA as well as the snows closer to the wave in the Dakotas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GEM a good deal wetter at 60hrs compared to 0z run with the fronto band from south central SD southeast into southwest IA as well as the snows closer to the wave in the Dakotas wasn't 0z showing like DAB for our area? can really only go up from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Started off better but still went down in flames as it went east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 'copter but it's a bad model having a bad year ride the GEFS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS has handled track and system strength well lately. No reason to side with the GEM after the poor performance on the early month system. That's the best run here yet! Operational run that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Here was the 6z ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z UKMET at 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 meh^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Here was the 6z ensembles they were a noticeable step in the wrong direction from 0z, hopefully 12z reverses course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Mixed results I would say. Need the EURO to come on board all the way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 meh, going the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 At least it's giving us an advisory snow. Haven't seen that for awhile. Rather be on the northern side of the system, then the sharp southern cut off. It looks like a slight improvement from my standpoint/location. 3-4 members had me at 6" > on the 6z run, and this run it's about 8 members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 euro total garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah Euro is no good...CMC isn't any better. Let's see if the GFS can keep its good stretch going. Give me an advisory hit and then let's bring some warmth in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 euro total garbageYeah, that ain't gonna cut it. GFS and its ensembles on their own for now. Still time to trend better since wave won't be sampled at all til tomorrow night...or to trend to even less of an event than the Euro has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 WPC discussion PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PUSHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES... FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC SYSTEM WHICH WILL REACH THE WA BORDER BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS QUICKER TO ADVANCE THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TRAILING ENERGY SPILLS IN ITS WAKE LEADING TO A MORE ELONGATED SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIER. WHILE FASTER WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSE...THE OVERALL ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH ITSELF IS SLOWER IN THE 12Z NAM WITH THE 12Z UKMET MOVING TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED SIDE. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTIS SHOW SOME AMPLITUDE SPREAD WITH MANY OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS FAVORING MORE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ITSELF STAYS TO THE NORTH WHERE THE BETTER CLUSTERING IS. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS COMPLICATED GIVEN THE NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES INVOLVED. THE BEST ENSEMBLE SUPPORT NOTED IN RECENT SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS IS FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. WPC FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF WITH INCLUSION OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO ACCOUNT FOR GROWING UNCERTAINTIES The GFS has consistency on its side, the GEM trended closer to it and the Euro is in lala land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z NAM going to be even quicker to dampen than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z NAM going to be even quicker to dampen than 12z Wave actually looks a little better to me compared to the 12z run at 18z Sunday but splitting hairs at this point. Most of IA does well but loses steam as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 FWIW the plumes QPF mean for ORD is 0.18" and and then ticks up slightly as you continue to go west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Early first call from LOT is 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 A little early obviously but the SREF plumes for MSP with a mean of 6" and most members between 4-8". A group of big dogs over 10". Been in the increase with each run today. 18z NAM brings the moderate snow further east as well....at least up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z GFS gave in to the rest. Dies quickly as it moves E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Well, the 18Z GFS sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Well, the 18Z GFS sucks You were warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Saw that coming a mile away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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