A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Wake me when February ends...... you never post in the summer anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 18Z GFS holds steady with northern track, more snowy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looking better than the last run. GFS hasn't done too bad this year, so I give it credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 End of the NAM run has the low a bit south it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 The GFS does have consistency on it's side, the GEM and the ECMWF have been all over with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 you never post in the summer anyways I'm always lurking. In the day I was a heat and severe weather maniac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 0Z NAM came in a tad bit north, stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NAM is trying to bring that Friday system farther north too... --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS went further N with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS bumped wetter again, spread the wealth 5-8" northern half of IL but a Geos minimum this run. Continue to see the deep GFS advertised of nearly 12,000ft across northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Snows through 114 on east. 5" would be fine. It's a very gradual northern gradient. Complete time span. GGEM still an organized mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Snows through 114 on east. 5" would be fine. It's a very gradual northern gradient. Complete time span. GGEM still an organized mess. Gem has been a mess most of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 00z GEM is weaker and farther north with the wave once it approaches the area and also dampens it much quicker, so result is much different than the GFS. The wave will not move onshore until late Friday night into Saturday morning, so variability in the guidance similar to past few days is probably a good bet until RAOB sampling. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Geos, can you post the 0z GEFS snowfall mean/members from InstantWeather since that takes into account ratios It does look like the members and the mean both ticked upward compared to last few runs just looking at the 10:1 maps on WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Gem has been a mess most of the winterComes down to how the wave is handled. If you look at both 12z Euro op and parallel, GEM is more similar to those than GFS/GEFS in that the wave dampens significantly once it reaches here. Also on the GEM and Euro op/parallel, the wave comes ashore sheared/elongated vs. more compact and deeper on the GFS. We'll see if the 00z Euro runs shift to more of a GFS/GEFS like solution. Would be nice to get some snow out of this cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 A lot of members 6" or over in the area. If you want to see any maps up closer, let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Awesome, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Thanks, Geos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No problem. #15 is probably the strongest/snowiest solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 00z Euro is pretty meh vs. the GFS but is an improvement/step in the right direction from the 12z op run for western parts of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Note about models: here is a GEFS plumes page I found a few days ago http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html You should be able to zoom in, by double clicking on the map, to just about any ASOS in the country. The zoom feature was working better a few days ago; you could zoom in more. I have no idea why the zoom feature changed functionality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Note about models: here is a GEFS plumes page I found a few days ago http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html You should be able to zoom in, by double clicking on the map, to just about any ASOS in the country. The zoom feature was working better a few days ago; you could zoom in more. I have no idea why the zoom feature changed functionality. Thanks for that link. Another one for the tool-belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Similar setups have followed the rapid dampening path this winter and the look at h5 over the eastern lakes tells me this will be no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Similar setups have followed the rapid dampening path this winter and the look at h5 over the eastern lakes tells me this will be no different. Though it was during the early January cold snap northern Illinois did eek out a couple 1-3 inch falls as the dampening lows faded to the south. Probably in line for a repeat performance...nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Though it was during the early January cold snap northern Illinois did eek out a couple 1-3 inch falls as the dampening lows faded to the south. Probably in line for a repeat performance...nothing more. Yeah, too bad we can't get some southern stream involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Though it was during the early January cold snap northern Illinois did eek out a couple 1-3 inch falls as the dampening lows faded to the south. Probably in line for a repeat performance...nothing more. A DAB to 3" gradient from Geos to the far southwest LOT cwa is a good call. 6z GEFS took a step towards the Euro this isn't our winter and this isn't a good pattern for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NAM trending weaker and towards the CMC/Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Tough to get excited about a 2" snowfall especially when it's going to be in the 30s and 40s for a week afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Tough to get excited about a 2" snowfall especially when it's going to be in the 30s and 40s for a week afterwards. this had some potential when it was looking like a potent hybrid going negative over the area with a decent pivot point but it's quickly turning into another nuisance event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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