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Feb. 14-17th Clipper Systems


HillsdaleMIWeather

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1.3" here so far. Ratios aren't living up to what was predicted. 

 

Agreed.  Betting we had 10:1 ratios here based on the longevity of the snowfall.  Snow came down nicely several times, but just didn't seem to add up very much.  Must be just enough wind to shatter the flakes at impact, or the blowing of the snow shattering them.  The powder seems fairly dense, so I'm guessing that's what happened.  I usually tend to be conservative with LSR forecasts, as many times they seem to be less than you'd think for whatever reason.  In this case I figured 14-17:1 would be conservative enough, as you could have made an argument for even higher LSRs given the depth of the DGZ forecast by some models.  In the end 14-17:1 was way too high.  At least for here. 

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Still nice to get a nice cover for the first time since Nov.

Didn't realize you've had bare ground since that November pasting. Even as crappy as this winter has been, that's crazy!

Not surprised this one turned out to be such a dud. These nuisance 0.5"-1.5" "events" suck because you don't even want to bother to get out there and shovel because there's so little, but they stick around and make a mess of the driveway if you don't.

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Agreed. Betting we had 10:1 ratios here based on the longevity of the snowfall. Snow came down nicely several times, but just didn't seem to add up very much. Must be just enough wind to shatter the flakes at impact, or the blowing of the snow shattering them. The powder seems fairly dense, so I'm guessing that's what happened. I usually tend to be conservative with LSR forecasts, as many times they seem to be less than you'd think for whatever reason. In this case I figured 14-17:1 would be conservative enough, as you could have made an argument for even higher LSRs given the depth of the DGZ forecast by some models. In the end 14-17:1 was way too high. At least for here.

Yeah, with the windy conditions, it wouldn't shock me if we had a good amount of shattering.

Nice to watch fall today, and the driveway has blown clear.

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NWS mentioned 15-17 to 1 ratios.  My ratio was only 13.5 to 1, despite the cold atmosphere and decent size flakes.

 

That's what my preliminary guess is on the ratio here.

 

Agreed.  Betting we had 10:1 ratios here based on the longevity of the snowfall.  Snow came down nicely several times, but just didn't seem to add up very much.  Must be just enough wind to shatter the flakes at impact, or the blowing of the snow shattering them.  The powder seems fairly dense, so I'm guessing that's what happened.  I usually tend to be conservative with LSR forecasts, as many times they seem to be less than you'd think for whatever reason.  In this case I figured 14-17:1 would be conservative enough, as you could have made an argument for even higher LSRs given the depth of the DGZ forecast by some models.  In the end 14-17:1 was way too high.  At least for here. 

 

 

You probably hit the nail on the head - the wind is probably shattering the flakes. In the beginning it was really fluffy with big flakes, but they've been on the smaller side overall. There's a lot of flakes falling, they're just small.

 

It's nice to see all the dirty ice piles covered over now.

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Didn't realize you've had bare ground since that November pasting. Even as crappy as this winter has been, that's crazy!

Not surprised this one turned out to be such a dud. These nuisance 0.5"-1.5" "events" suck because you don't even want to bother to get out there and shovel because there's so little, but they stick around and make a mess of the driveway if you don't.

 

Yeah we've had several light coatings throughout the winter, but not enough to completely cover the grass needles.  

 

My dad just said they had about 5" in the eastern QC, so not sure what to think.  That's over twice what we got.  Can't believe there would be that much difference between there and here, but it is what it is.  Can't wait to see what the final totals at DVN and MLI are.

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Skilling just tweeted that the Midway spotter is reporting 2.2 inches of snow from 0.08" of water...... a 27 to 1 ratio. That seems very high.

That's Frank W. As MDW doesn't do snow core measurements. Frank is usually pretty reliable and has been doing it for many years.

Geos, you've been on the northeast side and have fighting dry air a lot of the event so not surprised up there.

It's pure light as a feather fluff down here. Definitely high ratios here and was at 3" an hour ago or so.

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Glad you guys got some snow. :)

 

I am STILL waiting for something to start. Forecasts are for 1 to 2 inches...but that is probably too high. :axe:

 

Haven't had more than 2 inches of pure synoptic snow from any event yet this season. Thankfully the lake provided a few inches here this week. However, many parts of the Grand Rapids area still have lots of grass showing under a light dusting.

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Today was one of those odd snows where the no-salt policy here in DKB county actually was BETTER than the salted roads in St Charles area. Driving around St Charles this afternoon was horrible due to the 2" of slush generated by the salt, where out in DKB the cold pavement caused the cold snow to simply slide around and not build up.

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