Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 On 2/12/2016 at 9:11 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Flip the switch, Geos! Done! lol Being a Pacific system, I would expect it to be carrying more moisture then what the NAM is showing. 18z GFS slightly weaker with the high, but only 1 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 18Z GFS gives me 3 inches now, surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gained a bit in NE IL compared to the 12z run. 2nd wave goes south and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 On 2/12/2016 at 9:45 PM, Geos said: Done! lol Being a Pacific system, I would expect it to be carrying more moisture then what the NAM is showing. 18z GFS slightly weaker with the high, but only 1 mb. JB must be going nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 On 2/12/2016 at 10:00 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 18Z GFS gives me 3 inches now, surprised. Dude, you don't have to post what you are getting on every run of every model. It is filling the page with a bunch of images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I've noticed the upper level energy come in stronger and digging farther south...not good for the people on the northern edge. 00z GFS 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It is really something how quickly this thing is vaporized as it gets to Michigan, almost unrealistically if you ask me. I wouldn't be shocked if the models slowly inch up a bit locally, not expecting anything major but a complete whiff would be shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Until sampling occurs in WA, I'm not buying the drying that quickly either. These Pacific systems usually come in wetter than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like I'm gonna have to adjust my first/last call up a bit lol. Looking good for a few inches at least, which would be a huge win this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 On 2/12/2016 at 10:08 PM, Stebo said: Dude, you don't have to post what you are getting on every run of every model. It is filling the page with a bunch of images. I actually enjoy it especially when u are on the fly and don't have time to check out every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GEFS members with everything, wave 1 and 2. 11 or 12 of them are 6"+ here. Couple near 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/12/2016 at 11:05 PM, cyclone77 said: Looks like I'm gonna have to adjust my first/last call up a bit lol. Looking good for a few inches at least, which would be a huge win this season. Optimism FTW ☺️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Lol what a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 2:40 AM, A-L-E-K said: Lol what a winter A Friday night 9pm post by you can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 JOT plume around .2 by Monday morning... 00z NAM with .15 to .20+ around LOT...more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 3:11 AM, Gilbertfly said: JOT plume around .2 by Monday morning... 00z NAM with .15 to .20+ around LOT...more west 2-4 still on track....in this season that's a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This is just another slap in the face that I am 35 inches below normal snowfall for the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's almost over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Actually looks like this run DTX's area grinds out a 1-2". I guess I can't complain since it was showing much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM came in a bit wetter in northern IL. Still drier than the GFS. Maybe by tomorrow it will be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z GFS. First wave. Hopefully the bleeding has stopped and the new sounding data will support these amounts if not more. Second wave is pretty light and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 21z SFEF plumes crept back up a little. 0z GEM. Lost an inch here. This system needs to hold its own another 100-150 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This year I think anybody that can get 3" will take it and run".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 4:54 AM, Baum said: This year I think anybody that can get 3" will take it and run".... lol, 3" is the new warning criteria. Thinking we're looking at a nice 3-4" type event here. Wouldn't be surprised to see a little more if the higher ratios come through, but that remains to be seen. The GFS soundings are a bit warmer than the NAM, and results in less depth through the DGZ. Verbatim the NAM shows 2.5-3 miles of DGZ depth for northwest IL during the heart of the event. That's very impressive. Hopefully the NAM is correct with it's depiction of the temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ratios will be the key with this system. A slightly higher ratio could make up for a slight loss in moisture. In past experiences, these systems don't dry out quite as early as models show them. GEFS #10 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 While the NE storm crashes and burns, the GFS has this. Extension of the thread for the second clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 10:01 AM, IllinoisWedges said: While the NE storm crashes and burns, the GFS has this. Extension of the thread for the second clipper? At hour 90 its showing heavy snow IMBY, if the models keep showing it I assume the mods will extend the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 11:34 AM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: At hour 90 its showing heavy snow IMBY, if the models keep showing it I assume the mods will extend the thread If needed, extend it yourself. Go to your first post in the thread, click the edit button, click use full editor, and change the title and/or subtitle, click save changes. I, myself, am resigned to these daily les snows interspersed with moisture starved clippers, keeping us looking like winter down here until Friday when everything will melt in a flood of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 well the euro finally nailed one, sunday looking more and more dudish onto the next disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 2/13/2016 at 12:58 PM, A-L-E-K said: well the euro finally nailed one, sunday looking more and more dudish onto the next disappointment Yep. Though your 2.2 fluff call from a week out could be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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