John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Wow. That is like 500(?) miles in one run.... At least. I guess it finally caught on to whatever the folks at WPC had been saying regarding it's wound up/cutter not being a the right solution based on their experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Saw this mentioned in the MA board...but the DC blizzard was kept south by a clipper to its north. Just glancing at the Canadian, that might be the case for that model. That is what keeps the storm from cutting. Perfect parabola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I can't imagine anything but worse trends on the models from here on out. I'd pretty happily take 1/2 the amounts shown tonight and be happy with winter. Then again, maybe it's finally our time to get a locked down major storm from a few days out where we just wait on the snow to start falling like several events this season in other parts of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The damnedest thing about the Canadian is that it gives me 15 inches of snow and .25 inches of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I can't imagine anything but worse trends on the models from here on out. I'd pretty happily take 1/2 the amounts shown tonight and be happy with winter. Then again, maybe it's finally our time to get a locked down major storm from a few days out where we just wait on the snow to start falling like several events this season in other parts of the country. And then we still have MJO phase 8 for like 20 days beginning in late February taking into account lag time. The 0z Euro will tell the tale tonight and the EPS. The EPS FWIW, has never bought the Ohio River solution. Also, we all have to remember that models really like to lose storms between days 5-7 if I remember correctly. They may be recovering from that. Amazing to see the models move towards the original Euro solution from 12z last Friday. The UKMET folding is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I somehow missed the 12z JMA from yesterday...For whatever reason, I like to have it in my back pocket. Very good model for Miller As. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I got a question. What is a Miller A inland runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I got a question. What is a Miller A inland runner? A miller A is a storm that usually comes out of Texas, tracks through the Gulf Coast states and up the Eastern Seaboard. An inland runner tracks up through central Georgia, the Midstate of SC and Central NC. It's one of the best possible tracks especially for Eastern Valley areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 A miller A is a storm that usually comes out of Texas, tracks through the Gulf Coast states and up the Eastern Seaboard. An inland runner tracks up through central Georgia, the Midstate of SC and Central NC. It's one of the best possible tracks especially for Eastern Valley areas. Both of them are good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I got a question. What is a Miller A inland runner? Miller A is a low pressure that tracks east of the Apps and generally follows or mirrors the coastline before turning out to sea. Inland runner means that this particular low pressure is inside the coast vs on the coast or just off the coast. Inland runners(as long as they are not too close to the TN/NC border) are generally good snow producers unless you get downsloped. Probably the most famous Miller A is the '93 storm, but there are many others that are not that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Having the UKMET shift to a miller A solution is huge for us. This may give us a clue about where the Euro goes in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I didn't get to look at any temp profiles but I assume the Canadian was a smidgen warm during the height of the storm. Total precip maps spit out around 2" of QPF around the plateau and the warm nose is apparent by looking at the clown maps, When I first glanced at the 0z GFS I was excited because the 850 temps were below zero for all the event and we have a good surface low track. The surface was just too warm. I would imagine if the temps on the Canadian/GFS were a few degrees colder then those clown maps would show a lot more. Downsloping shouldn't be as intense as the last big storm but it will still be a component for us in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro out to hour 60 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 0z appears a bit faster @102 and a tad flatter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 @108 the precip axis is flatter and again it appears faster, though the precip could just be breaking-out quicker downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Looking good so far, wide spread snow across the entire valley. Crushing Nashville at 104-108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hour 102 the western half of the state is under heavy precip but the 32 degree line has pushed to the KY border. 35 degree line is at the southern border. Hour 108 .1-.3 of QPF is east of the plateau and falling into sub 32 degree air. West of that the precip is heavier but above 35 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 This run is very different than 12z. Snow accumulations breaking out on the TN/KY border @114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It is south of 0z looking to make the turn east of the Apps @ 120 and gets strung out at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I expect almost the entire Valley to cross 6 inches with this run, some may get much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Everyone looks to be too warm for snow on the 114-120 panels. Plenty of juice just too warm this run. Good news is that is appears the the low tracks east of the mountains although at hour 120 low heights are tucked up against the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Sharp cut off in West Tennessee. But 6-8 inches Northern Central Tennessee, 8-12 Plateau. 4-6 every where else except the very southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Snow axis has shifted SE about 250-300 miles from along the Ohio River to the Cumberlands and the Apps. Snowfall accumulations north of 40 and east to the Carolina border range from 5-10." Downsloping evident on west facing slopes. Massive shift for the Euro and brings it in line w/ all other modeling at this point. Slp was weaker, maybe the weakest of all of the models. Kind of loses the low once east of the Apps and that may be due to finally reorienting itself. Won't make the shift all at once. Basically a weak Miller A. Nice trends for the forum area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 All in all a massive improvement from 24 hours ago and a big improvement from 12. Currently every major model and their ensembles are supportive of a major winter storm for much of our area beginning in 4-5 days. Can't ask for much more than that at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Thanks, Carver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Sharp cut off in West Tennessee. But 6-8 inches Northern Central Tennessee, 8-12 Plateau. 4-6 every where else except the very southern areas. Yes, it looks like on the clown map that Nashville east to the Plateau gets 6-10 inches. The valley doesn't do as well probably 2-4 or 5 inches but even Chattanooga is above 2 inches. SWVA looks to get 6-10 inches. The big winner on this run was I-81 in Virginia. Totals over a foot showing up in West Virginia down to Roanoke and it rides all the way up 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Those huge totals occur and there could be more if we can eliminate mixing. As I mentioned, I get 15 inches of snow on the Canadian and .25 ice. I'll pretty much take any run from tonight. I think the worst I did was the Euro and it still shows 8 inches over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The Plateau has been consistently in the bullseye on all the major models. I'm not trying to jinx y'all but that's where the highest probability of a significant snow is at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 All in all a massive improvement from 24 hours ago and a big improvement from 12. Currently every major model and their ensembles are supportive of a major winter storm for much of our area beginning in 4-5 days. Can't ask for much more than that at this time frame. Now, that looks like a decent parabola...not the checkmark pattern shown before. I think there is a clipper to our northwest on this run that forces the energy south. And honestly, once the Euro locks back-in(this was its original solution) wouldn't be surprised to see totals go back up. The Euro is famous(as is other models) for losing systems between 5-7 days only to get them back. EPS should look nice. Can ask for nothing more from the 0z suite. Hey, Runman, told you we would take care of it. Heading off to bed. Enjoyed the conversation tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yes, it looks like on the clown map that Nashville east to the Plateau gets 6-10 inches. The valley doesn't do as well probably 2-4 or 5 inches but even Chattanooga is above 2 inches. SWVA looks to get 6-10 inches. The big winner on this run was I-81 in Virginia. Totals over a foot showing up in West Virginia down to Roanoke and it rides all the way up 81. Trust me, 4-5 inches in Knoxville is Significant snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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