Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Here's a writeup from the Feb. 21, '15 storm alluded to above.https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-pandora-reports-snow-ice Man, we had so much snow in those 17 days, it all runs together. Think that is the one where my wife was on call, and I had to take her to each hospital in the 4W drive. Huge flakes. And yes, a retreating high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Makes sense the slower would cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 JB's analogs. What can you all tell me about them? "3 storms are going to be used to analog the snow amounts next week March 2-4 1994, Feb 13-15 1984, Dec 26-27 2012. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 JB has been honking this as a big plains to New England winter storm. Not surprised that he is hyping that particular outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Here's a writeup from the Feb. 21, '15 storm alluded to above.https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-pandora-reports-snow-ice Also, we have a great archived thread about this event on page 2 of topics. Nice read as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z Euro Para finally came in. It's a destroyer for most of us. Especially the Plateau and West. I think Stove's post earlier was looking at the 00z from last night, which had showed the amounts he said. The para shows 4-5 inches around Memphis. 5-8 over almost all of West and Middle Tennessee, 10-15 over the Eastern Highland Rim, the Plateau, and the Western Valley areas like Roane, Anderson etc. Basically the counties that border the Plateau. The far eastern Valley gets 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z Euro Para finally came in. It's a destroyer for most of us. Especially the Plateau and West. I think Stove's post earlier was looking at the 00z from last night, which had showed the amounts he said. The para shows 4-5 inches around Memphis. 5-8 over almost all of West and Middle Tennessee, 10-15 over the Eastern Highland Rim, the Plateau, and the Western Valley areas like Roane, Anderson etc. Basically the counties that border the Plateau. The far eastern Valley gets 2-4 inches. Is Knox County considered the western valley or the eastern valley in East TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Is Knox County considered the western valley or the eastern valley in East TN? Knox is basically dead center. It would get 3-5 inches by the look of the map, with the 5 inches being on the west side. The area towards Greenville and up that way gets downsloped and has 2-3 inch totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 HPC day 4/5 track, hot off the presses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I would take those HPC low placements any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS is about 100 miles South of 18z so far out to 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS is about 100 miles South of 18z so far out to 108.runs up through central nc, might mix some but it's a paste bomb and not a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS was a little further south and a little colder. Didn't improve much for western areas vs 18z but got better for Eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS looking a little better for East TN. Hopefully the Canadian will stick to it's past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I would be happier with higher QPF but I'd rather take my chances with a faster and colder system that runs the Piedmont than a stronger vort that's a cutter. Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS was a little further south and a little colder. Didn't improve much for western areas vs 18z but got better for Eastern areas. Hey, the Euro and the GFS are only like 400 miles apart and the entire state of Kentucky when looking at the snow axis of each. You all agree...Miller A, inland runner is what is being shown on the 0z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hey, the Euro and the GFS are only like 400 miles apart and the entire state of Kentucky when looking at the snow axis of each. You all agree...Miller A, inland runner is what is being shown on the 0z GFS? The Para Euro is much better to West Tennessee but it focuses the heaviest snow in the same places as that run of the GFS. The UKMET has also folded it's tent on the cutter solution from what I understand, though I've not personally seen the maps yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The Para Euro is much better to West Tennessee but it focuses the heaviest snow in the same places as that run of the GFS. The UKMET has also folded it's tent on the cutter solution from what I understand, though I've not personally seen the maps yet. Check-out the final totals for the 0z GFS. That run is trying its best to hit the major cities of the NE int he process. Classic track. That is pure Miller A right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Canadian is in South Alabama with a 1009 mb low. Might be warm for some areas. Has me at 32 degrees with extremely heavy precip over the area. But in the mid 30s to upper 30s almost everywhere but the Plateau/SEKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Check-out the final totals for the 0z GFS. That run is trying its best to hit the major cities of the NE int he process. Classic track. That is pure Miller A right there. 0zgfs.JPG It's a miller A for sure. Rides across the Gulf states then turns the corner. It's just a western track for an A. Apparently the UKMet also tracks up through North Carolina with it's low. The Canadian is likely heading there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 0z Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I don't think the models can ever get better for an event for most of us that today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 0z Canadian Snow Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 0z Canadian... cmc0z21016.JPG All I could see was 32 right over me and dumping precip.....but holy smokes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It's a miller A for sure. Rides across the Gulf states then turns the corner. It's just a western track for an A. Apparently the UKMet also tracks up through North Carolina with it's low. The Canadian is likely heading there too. That is a good sign if the UKMET has broken continuity w/ its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Think the UKIE changed just a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Man, if the Knoxville valley area can avoid a warm nose this time around..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Think the UKIE changed just a bit? Wow. That is like 500(?) miles in one run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 0z Canadian Snow Map It's very similar to the 12z Para Euro for almost entire Valley cru****ude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Man, if the Knoxville valley area can avoid a warm nose this time around..... Downslope is what I am seeing now since it is a Miller A. But if the models are just now catching-on to a Miller A/inland runner...hard to tell how strong it gets. John1122. You think this is getting sampled better now? Has to be getting closer to the coast since it is a northern stream feature. Some big changes so far in tonight's model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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