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Potential Big Dog Snow Event February 15th


Stovepipe

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It's made up for it here. It's poured most of the day over me. I'd rather have had the dry slot.

Absolutely. I only get mad at the dry slot when I know it's robbing me of snow and not flooding rain.

Downsloping?

Yeah you can see it really good here on this image. It's also what will make it hard to change back to snow here.

596810ce99582cabfc9cbd2ec781e9d0.jpg

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SLP update just south of Chatt looking to me like its heading for the Mountains.

It's looking like the energy is trying to split the mountains. Some of it will try to go up the valley and some it of it around the base of the wedge. This is really where the mountains and the wedge kills us. I bet instead of the low going straight for the mountains it gets strung out and gets hard to tell where it is at.

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1234, not sure if your zone is misworded, but MRX may need a Winter Storm Warning based on it's forecast.

 

 

 

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY
902 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.REST OF TONIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN
LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH OR
LESS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN
AND SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 6 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
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New SPS for plateau and adjacent areas near plateau from MRX:

 

 

 

 
Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
917 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

TNZ012-013-035-036-067-082-083-160800-
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-MORGAN-ANDERSON-ROANE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...WARTBURG...
CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...KINGSTON...PIKEVILLE...DAYTON
917 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 /817 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/

...AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

AS A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY
RAIN...HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
COULD SEE PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. IF FREEZING
RAIN OR SNOW DOES OCCUR THEN DRIVING CONDITIONS COULD DEGRADE
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING...AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
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This is their discussion of it. CAD along the Plateau.

 

 

 

OWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WERE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THERE COULD POSSIBLY BE A VERY LOCALIZED VERY SMALL COLD AIR
DAMMING OCCURRING AS COLD AIR IS TRAPPED ALONG THE STEEPEST PARTS
OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. CAN`T CONFIRM THAT THIS IS OCCURRING OR
THE CULPRIT OF THE FREEZING RAIN, BUT LOCATION OF POWER OUTAGES AND
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS MAKE IT A POSSIBILITY. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANCE TO SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
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I've experienced this effect before in the past. It is real effect that doesn't happen all the time but does happen.  I was at 32 an hour ago but back to 33.  Highest I've been is 34.

 

I live in a bowl on the Plateau. Peaks near me go up to from 2500-2900 feet and I'm surrounded on all sides by them. It's almost impossible to scour cold air out of my area because of that. So I'm sitting here at 32 after a high of 33.6 today, but it's raining too hard for any ice to build up at this temperature.

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I live in a bowl on the Plateau. Peaks near me go up to from 2500-2900 feet and I'm surrounded on all sides by them. It's almost impossible to scour cold air out of my area because of that. So I'm sitting here at 32 after a high of 33.6 today, but it's raining too hard for any ice to build up at this temperature.

Yeah you really are in a sweet spot.  I love the area you live in, would love one day to buy property up that way, especially on a NW facing slope.  One of my favorite hikes up your way is Devils Race Track.  Its so strange I've talked about the sort of micro CAD effect on this side of the valley year after year on here, never heard Morristown ever acknowledge any such effect until now. 

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1234, not sure if your zone is misworded, but MRX may need a Winter Storm Warning based on it's forecast.

That's doesn't make much since to me. I'm about positive I will see less than an inch out of this. Now it may be possible for the higher elevations of the county that border Lee and Wise. It is such a different climate up that way. Most of the time they lump all the SWVA counties together. The HI-RES NAM from 18z did try to drop a few inches this evening and a few more tomorrow afternoon with the clipper.

I'm surprised that JKL didn't issue a WSW for some of their western counties. I guess the uncertainty of the changeover made them not do it.

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It's looking like the energy is trying to split the mountains. Some of it will try to go up the valley and some it of it around the base of the wedge. This is really where the mountains and the wedge kills us. I bet instead of the low going straight for the mountains it gets strung out and gets hard to tell where it is at.

Will be close. Literally, if it makes it east of the mountains...we may be talking by less than 50 miles. Now we know why the models struggled so badly with this. If it makes that corner and turns, somebody is going to get a surprise depending on how closey it hugs the mountains.
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I have a question. Why does there seem to be an area that runs thru Knoxville, including Sevierville and Pgeon Forge that seems to be on the short end of the stick when storms like the one in mid January and this one happening now? It is like a river of warmer air is in the atmosphere in this area. Is there a scientific explanation? Areas not too far north and west get hammered and we are left with nothing.

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