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Potential Big Dog Snow Event February 15th


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North Bristol got a nice thump the past hour. Huge flakes have given away to a mix of flakes and sleet. My closest station still says 25°. I think it's going to be a heavy mix here for a good while longer. Sitting at 5" at present.

I'm still worried about freezing rain later. The subfreezing temps are still holding well.

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Robert @ WxSouth thinks we might have a chance at wrap-around snow later tonight as the low pulls away. Here's his Facebook post about 30 minutes ago:

As the day wears on, any snow and ice in TN will turn over to mostly rain, as well into central middle Kentucky, but as the low goes up the Spine of the Appalachians tonight and deepens some, a strong comma head of precip will backlash across the Valley in middle KY to middle and east central Tennessee with just enough cold air aloft to flip back over to heavy, wet snowfall. There's a chance anyway, but it will depend on how hard the precip comes down on the back end of the storm. Temps aloft will come down quickly and the heavy precip rates add dynamical cooling to the storm, possibly enough to bring the snow line back to the surface. If that happens a quick 2, 3" or 4" of slushy snow can fall there. Time frame is overnight tonight. By Tuesday morning, the spine of the Apps is most likely changing back to snow (after brief rain and ice predawn there), all the way to extreme northern GA mountains possibly.

The best chance for accumulations on back end snow is middle to eastern KY and mid/eastern TN, but not all regions will likely switch over.

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I'm buying heavy wrap around snow for East TN and portions of the plateau tonight. I can't see the region along the border of KY and VA eclipsing 40°. It's 33° here right now. If it reaches 40° by 3pm, I'll kiss a horse.

The wrap around will pull in NW flow with the low deepening as it pushes east and NE of the region. I think we'll be under heavy wet snow by 9 to 10 pm.

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I'm buying heavy wrap around snow for East TN and portions of the plateau tonight. I can't see the region along the border of KY and VA eclipsing 40°. It's 33° here right now. If it reaches 40° by 3pm, I'll kiss a horse.

The wrap around will pull in NW flow with the low deepening as it pushes east and NE of the region. I think we'll be under heavy wet snow by 9 to 10 pm.

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l don't know if I can take another night of tease it gives my area of Knox county 1 half inch.

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I'm buying heavy wrap around snow for East TN and portions of the plateau tonight. I can't see the region along the border of KY and VA eclipsing 40°. It's 33° here right now. If it reaches 40° by 3pm, I'll kiss a horse.

The wrap around will pull in NW flow with the low deepening as it pushes east and NE of the region. I think we'll be under heavy wet snow by 9 to 10 pm.

Sent from my LG G4.

 

 

The Euro from 00z showed this happening in North Central Tennessee last night but it also showed most of East Tennessee hitting 45-48 degrees. The NAM is far and away the most aggressive with the back side snow. Hopefully it is correct.

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To be specific, I'm referring to the border regions of upper East TN and the plateau. I'm not as confident for areas SW of Greenville and Knox. Temperatures are key. It seems all the modeling has overplayed the flamethrower SW flow. As the backside of the low pulls NE, the flow should back out of Ohio and Eastern KY. High precip rates may do good work there for the bordering counties in the Eastern Valley. That doesn't mean it will make it far south as Knox. I have good hopes for the northern counties, but not so much as you go south. Depends on the strength of the low and that NW flow.

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Just look at the SE radar. Can you only imagine if we had that 1040 HP over in NB/MO right now!! Better yet, if we could have had the current one moving off the New England coast, and another one dropping down instead of the clipper! This could have been one for the record books for sure. Alas, it just wasn't meant to be this time. Still was nice to see some snow.

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It's been awhile since I've seen models be so far off on temps.  Last night the RAP showed Knoxville hitting 60 degrees by 18z... My truck showed 34 a few minutes ago.

I know right.  Sitting at 34 down this way too.  Could bode well for possible back side snow tonight if this thing moves up the spine of the apps and deepens like the NAM shows.

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Are any other short range models beside the NAM showing the backside snow?

The NAM is alone in its aggressive backside thump.  Others appear to show some mixing or brief backside, like cold air chasing moisture.   I'm feeling the possibility personally with temps staying so low, if the low passes to our east it will pull colder upper level air over, and of course the surface hasn't really warmed much.  If we stay in the 30s today, then I will feel very optimistic of some backside snow, how much is another question though.  The low track will be critical though. 

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The north side of JC is sitting in the middle 30s. The south side is in the lower 40s. My Dad in Erwin reports 46°, sunny skies, and a brisk SE wind.

 

I think there is some major downsloping today.  I noticed brighter skies off to my south this morning--even a patch of blue toward the foothills.  Also, the precip field over East TN has a major hole in it at the moment. 

 

In the meantime...only 32.9 here with drizzle.

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