Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 How bout them 12z control run apples... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 How bout them 12z control run apples... Is Jax breathing? Somebody go check on him... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 How bout them 12z control run apples... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 So, the EPS is in? In transit at the moment...they look like 0z. The 12z give us less clarity, they are flatter with even more spread. If anything they look more northern stream energy just heading through the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 12z EPS low locations Day 5: Day 5.5: Day 6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 The 12z EPS mean snow looks about 2 to 5 inches across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 PER MRX: MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THEEXTENDED IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHTINTO MONDAY. MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCEPOOR AS WELL. CURRENT GFS FASTER...A BIT DRIER AND COLDER THAN THEECMWF. IF THE GFS SCENARIO IS CORRECT...WILL SEE A BAND OF SNOWSHOWERS PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITHACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWFMOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO BRING IN BRIEFSOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MUCH GREATER MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURESWHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH ASRAIN THEN TRANSITIONING INTO A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP BEFORE TURNINGTO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING. EITHER SCENARIO SHOULD PRODUCEACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BUT THE CONFIDENCE VERY LOW ON DETAILS. BEHINDTHE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERSEXPECTED TUESDAY AND MODERATING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Is Jax breathing? Somebody go check on him... LOL Is that on weatherbell too? Cant seem to find it on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Is that on weatherbell too? Cant seem to find it on there Search the model page for this text "EPS Precipitation & MSLP". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Search the model page for this text "EPS Precipitation & MSLP". Thanks, that is certainly a clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownNDirtyTN Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This is my first post I subscribed after finding this forum. I am just looking to gain some knowledge about the weather as I'm an absolute dunce when it comes to knowing anything. I can read a snowfall map and at least know what county I live in so I've got that going for me. I would like to see one more good snow in the area before winter is over with. It seems like we can get 5 or 6 inches here and there but I'd love to see about a foot sometime for my kids.....my 6 year old would love to see a really big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I am going to leave all the model dissecting to the experts here but here is my take on it. This is not a wish cast or a Debbie Downer post. With way the setup is looking, growing up in the Chattanooga and N. GA. area I have seen this scenario many times over. I see a less robust southern track of the low, close to a Miller A. Chattanooga will be on the border of snow/freezing rain/rain at the onset. I think the cold wins out initially and Chatty gets hit with a good, sloppy, wet 3-5 inch snow before changing over to a light drizzle with temps holding at 33*. I've seen it too many times. Points north and east should do much better with cold air hanging on a little longer. This is obviously not a forecast but seems to fit the pattern of my many years in the south. Now, no need to bash, just my thoughts. Carry on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 This is my first post I subscribed after finding this forum. I am just looking to gain some knowledge about the weather as I'm an absolute dunce when it comes to knowing anything. I can read a snowfall map and at least know what county I live in so I've got that going for me. I would like to see one more good snow in the area before winter is over with. It seems like we can get 5 or 6 inches here and there but I'd love to see about a foot sometime for my kids.....my 6 year old would love to see a really big snow. Welcome to the forum!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This is my first post I subscribed after finding this forum. I am just looking to gain some knowledge about the weather as I'm an absolute dunce when it comes to knowing anything. I can read a snowfall map and at least know what county I live in so I've got that going for me. I would like to see one more good snow in the area before winter is over with. It seems like we can get 5 or 6 inches here and there but I'd love to see about a foot sometime for my kids.....my 6 year old would love to see a really big snow. Thanks for signing up and making your first post. You are just down the road from several posters, living in the Tri-Cities. We really try and follow rules (though we get off the tracks every now and again), but have a pretty laid back forum in the Tn Valley. I would highly recommend reading the rules for our board http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=forums&module=extras§ion=boardrules Thanks again for your contribution and I hope you can learn in our forum. We have some pretty knowledgeable individuals and a couple of really good meteorologists. Have a GREAT afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Is Jax breathing? Somebody go check on him... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 12z GFS para snowfall map. Looks like a less amped solution, similar to the Canadian today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 12z Euro para is a region wide 2-5 inches west to east with chatt and southern plateau lollipopping to 7-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This one is reminding me of the storm that buried Kentucky in March of last year with almost 2 feet of snow, when the national guard had to rescue people on the interstates. Similar track and set up if I remember correctly just that it is further south this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Well that was a different spin on things. If the surface was a tad cooler that could have been fairly epic for many people. 18z GFS snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Well, the Euro and UKMET are over the Ohio River...the Canadian, EPS, GEFS, GFS are more of an inland runner miller A. The 18z GFS was very close to the 12z Euro. It just cut east of the Apps. If it was to make the same trend at 0z, it will be the Euro solution from today...but here is 18z. We will enjoy our virtual snow while it lasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The 18z GFS today is the 12z Euro from last Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Not one's talking about the control?...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If the Euro and it's worshipper DT is correct in lp placement, it is possible a similar outcome to last February 21st could be realized. Virtually all models right up to even when the event was underway, had this area getting an inch or less of snow before changing to rain. Jonesville VA, reported 19" before changeover late that day! That system moved in on the heels of a strong arctic air mass. Models were several degrees too warm. Carver, I'm sure remembers this well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If the Euro and it's worshipper DT is correct in lp placement, it is possible a similar outcome to last February 21st could be realized. Virtually all models right up to even when the event was underway, had this area getting an inch or less of snow before changing to rain. Jonesville VA, reported 19" before changeover late that day! That system moved in on the heels of a strong arctic air mass. Models were several degrees too warm. Carver, I'm sure remembers this well. Where are my 19"? Just kidding of course. But I am always wary of entrenched cold in NE TN. Depends on the warm nose. It tends to stop somewhere between Greeneville and Gate City. When I see meso highs trying to set up west of the Apps that is telling me the leftover cold is getting dammed up against the west slopes of the Apps. Those are signals for mischief. JB seems to like an Ohio Valley cutter which transfers to the Georgia Coast. WxSouth says even the GFS made a big jump towards the 12z Euro solution. The 18z GFS as I noted above is one more trend from heading to KY. I hold out hope for a true inland runner which is a Miller A. But today's trends were not good. And when repsected mets start to signal they like the Ohio Valley, solution...I take notice. The storm was just so far out there and still is to some extent. Not giving up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah, wouldn't be surprised. I can recall other occasions where an arctic air mass was retreating and a system cut to our west and only got a heavy dusting before changeover. December '83 comes to mind. High of zero Christmas then the above occurred. BTW, how much did Kingsport get from that Feb. 21 storm? You know that storm actually went west. Most of Ky was getting rain while this area got heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Don't get me wrong Carver, I'm a firm follower of the Ecmwf over other models. Just some situations it can miss as proved last February. Only one model had us getting any significant ACC's, and that was the new para Gfs with a 8-9" portrayal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Where are my 19"? Just kidding of course. But I am always wary of entrenched cold in NE TN. Depends on the warm nose. It tends to stop somewhere between Greeneville and Gate City. When I see meso highs trying to set up west of the Apps that is telling me the leftover cold is getting dammed up against the west slopes of the Apps. Those are signals for mischief. JB seems to like an Ohio Valley cutter which transfers to the Georgia Coast. WxSouth says even the GFS made a big jump towards the 12z Euro solution. The 18z GFS as I noted above is one more trend from heading to KY. I hold out hope for a true inland runner which is a Miller A. But today's trends were not good. And when repsected mets start to signal they like the Ohio Valley, solution...I take notice. The storm was just so far out there and still is to some extent. Not giving up yet. carver, the only thing I can think JB is talking about is the northern stream heads to Ohio from due west then the low forms down south from the backside energy on the trough. I can't ever remember seeing a storm cut to Ohio then transfer to the ga coast.I thought the 12z Euro made a big jump back to its previous runs with a piedmont runner. Doesn't mean that's right but the Euro did move back away from the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 carver, the only thing I can think JB is talking about is the northern stream heads to Ohio from due west then the low forms down south from the backside energy on the trough. I can't ever remember seeing a storm cut to Ohio then transfer to the ga coast. I thought the 12z Euro made a big jump back to its previous runs with a piedmont runner. Doesn't mean that's right but the Euro did move back away from the cutter. Franklin, you really need to post over here more often. I thought it seemed odd as well. The 12z Euro came very close to a Piedmont runner. I agree. The EPS low positions confirm that. Seems like the biggest issue is speed. Slower solutions cut. Quicker solutions are inland runners. JB also mentioned some anaolg storms. The one I could find was an Ohio River special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Here's a writeup from the Feb. 21, '15 storm alluded to above.https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-pandora-reports-snow-ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 JB quote: "I like the storm to the Ohio valley, then reforming over Ga and coming up the coast just inland. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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