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Potential Big Dog Snow Event February 15th


Stovepipe

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Pipe... Are you seeing anything at all out there? That precip is in west Knox now and looks good enough to be hitting the ground.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I was beginning to worry because I was under good returns via RadarScope with nothing (dewpoint 18, temp 27).  Then a nice light to moderate pure sleet began.  No ZR at all so far from this batch.

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It appears that dry slot came further north than modelled as the heaviest snow axis was further north as well, running through se Ky into wise county as opposed to Anderson, Claiborne Hancock and Lee counties. Saw where Harlan was up to 6" at 11 o'clock and still snowing. About 3.7 here now with very lt. Snow. Heaviest just to my north. Northern Lee getting hit pretty good. No reports from there though.

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Yep dry slot is really killing the snow totals now in TN. Afraid what you have is what you'll get snow wise. We will most likely see some sleet and ZR, but that will be awhile longer judging by the way the radar looks. It was such a weird system. Nothing short of complex, but anyway, I can't complain. It is another winter wonderland outside. My son and I got to sled again after supper this evening, and play in the powder. This stuff is like pure ski resort dream! Reminds me of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, etc. it definitely is a high ratio snow! 2.5in of fluff, some 5in drifts on the side of the house even. So cool. I don't want to go to bed, because I know it'll be gone soon by morning, but gotta do it haha.

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That looks like snow driving towards Bristol along the Va/Tn border. Anyone over that way seeing anything?

Yes, I've seen some light snow for the past 15-20 minutes but it hasn't amounted to anything. The snow falling didn't really match the good looking returns. It is 25 still. Really wasting the temps on a lack of precip.

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Yes, I've seen some light snow for the past 15-20 minutes but it hasn't amounted to anything. The snow falling didn't really match the good looking returns. It is 25 still. Really wasting the temps on a lack of precip.

Oddly, the precip is dying out even more right now, it will probably be 3 or 4 in the morning before it gets back to my area, even later to yours.

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I'm getting pretty close to a return of consistent heavy echos passing over my area. For whatever reason the GFS keeps Campbell, Eastern Claiborne and Union County below freezing through 1 pm tomorrow and gives me 5-6 inches of new snow between now and then. 

 

Currently the temp is 26 and I'll believe the GFS after it happens and not before, even though it got my totals right from the first wave and now wants to continue the 10-12+ inches it kept showing falling here from today until around 1-2 Monday.

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The heavier echoes are moderate snow/sleet here. Wish it'd been all snow. Temp continues to rise, about 1 degree per hour. 27 right now. Extremely heavy precip to the south is robbing the band over me right now. But it's aimed at the central Valley. Not sure what the temps are there or what they'll be when it arrives.

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The heavier echoes are moderate snow/sleet here. Wish it'd been all snow. Temp continues to rise, about 1 degree per hour. 27 right now. Extremely heavy precip to the south is robbing the band over me right now. But it's aimed at the central Valley. Not sure what the temps are there or what they'll be when it arrives.

It's sleet and freezing rain right now in North Knoxville. Temps are around 27.

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It's sleet and freezing rain right now in North Knoxville. Temps are around 27.

There are some pretty heavy rates aimed right at Knox county. I had snow/sleet that has now switched to sleet/freezing rain. The roads were mostly packed snow here, now with the layer of freezing rain and sleet in top of it, it's going to be a nightmare for anyone trying to go any where in the morning.

 

If the heavy rates can be partial sleet in the central Valley, roads will also be extremely bad there. If it's all heavy freezing rain it'll wash away ice on roads.

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There's still some big dew point spreads across the area. Crossville was at 38 earlier, now it's 36 with unknown precip, which is likely sleet. They have a dewpoint of 22. Enough heavier returns could push them to freezing. Knoxville at TYS is 29 over 21. Chattanooga is down to 37 now with a dp of 16, that heavy precip moving their way could drop temps towards freezing.  Middlesboro at 28 over 24 is the only place in the area that's close to saturated.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

314 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF

PRECIP INCREASING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE HAVE

BEEN SLOW TO RISE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. EXPECT TO SEE SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN SOUTHERN PARTS OF ADVISORY/WARNINGS BEFORE THE

TRANSITION TO RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING TO FREEZING

RAIN AND THEN RAIN IN THE FAR NORTH. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH

ICE/SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO KEEP WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN

PLACE FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND

FOOTHILLS OF THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS FROM

THE SOUTHWEST AND TURNS MORE SOUTH. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR

THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS FROM MONROE COUNTY NORTH. RAIN WILL BE MOST

PERSISTENT ACROSS NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND MAY BE SOME FLOODING

PROBLEMS BY TONIGHT AS LAST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES ACROSS. NO

FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. WILL MENTION

IN HWO. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND RAIN EXITS

TONIGHT...MAY BE A BIT OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY SOME OF THE HIGHER

TERRAIN...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH ACCUMULATION.

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