Runman292 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 12z RGEM looks just like the graphic MRX posted an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Precip looks further north IMO and is tracking more east than SE. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If you look out west towards Nashville the returns are moving due east but when you get to the valley they are running more east south east. We are still under a northwest flow. That will change but maybe at first it will help us. Most likely i am just grasping for straws. I am hoping that slight push south will put me and Stove in better snow. I live just north of 40 but if the wind is blowing right i can spit and hit the interstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Short range models may say nothing for anyone in TN, but just looking at the radar, it appears that I-40 and north will see some sort of precip today. There is a pretty good area of snow just west of Nashville, heading pretty much due east. So unless it goes *poof*, most of northern TN, west to east, should see some snow or mix this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The GFS prediction for 1 pm today looks to be exactly on track, if not a little slow. Shows snow streaking across the northern part of the state and mixed precip/freezing rain in SWKY. That's exactly what is happening now. Freezing rain in Paducah, snowing in Clarksville, already had some light snow here. There will be a sharp cut-off line. This has been on most of the models for the last few runs. Right around 2 counties south of the border in Middle Tennessee, 3 counties down from the Plateau and East. The heaviest precip axis on the Euro and GFS has been from Memphis to Middlesboro and that arrives in frozen form this evening into tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Very concerning trend today out of the short range models. The HI-RES nam and the HRRR are shifting the precip shield well north into Kentucky cutting down on amounts. The GFS and the RGEM are the only models left that keep enough precip south. Look at the last 4 runs of the HRRR and watch as it's correcting itself. It goes from showing no snow at all in Tennessee about 4 hour ago, to shifting the snow towards I-40 to reflect what's actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Look at the last 4 runs of the HRRR and watch as it's correcting itself. It goes from showing no snow at all in Tennessee about 4 hour ago, to shifting the snow towards I-40 to reflect what's actually happening. RGEM and GFS at 12z look decent if I was just cherry picking. Precip shield looks pretty robust out west. Wish we had a few more northwest TN posters for some obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Getting some light snow now in North Knox Co. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 RGEM and GFS at 12z look decent if I was just cherry picking. Precip shield looks pretty robust out west. Wish we had a few more northwest TN posters for some obs. Closest ob I can find is Paducah and it's 24 with freezing rain there. GFS has that entire area in the pink during this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Zilch on radar over me, but I'm noticing some very fine flurries falling on occasion. Just a flake here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Can't imagine it will be correct but the RGEM has moderate to heavy ice accumulations across the area. Showed my area with .75 zr with .15-.5 over a lot of the rest of the area. Shows 4-5 inches of snow then 4-6 hours of freezing rain almost right over top of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Can't imagine it will be correct but the RGEM has moderate to heavy ice accumulations across the area. Showed my area with .75 zr with .15-.5 over a lot of the rest of the area. Shows 4-5 inches of snow then 4-6 hours of freezing rain almost right over top of me. John, how much zr for NE TN? Eating after church at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Noticing a narrow band of snow developing over the central Plateau. Appears to be pointing toward Knoxvegas. Could be showing us approximately where the snow is going to set up later--north of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 John, how much zr for NE TN? Eating after church at the moment... .10 to .25 over the Tri-Cities area after 4-5 inches of snow. Little area in NE Knox and NE towards Morristown that gets .33-.5 ice after 2-3 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Can't imagine it will be correct but the RGEM has moderate to heavy ice accumulations across the area. Showed my area with .75 zr with .15-.5 over a lot of the rest of the area. Shows 4-5 inches of snow then 4-6 hours of freezing rain almost right over top of me. Could you post an Ice accretion map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Noticing a narrow band of snow developing over the central Plateau. Appears to be pointing toward Knoxvegas. Could be showing us approximately where the snow is going to set up later--north of that line. 40 corridor and North should fill in with returns in the next hour or two and by 2 or 3 it should be snowing from Bristol to maybe Tys and points north and west. Check out the forecast for today upstream in Southern Kentucky on the border. Snow, mainly after 11am. Some thunder is also possible. High near 34. Southeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Man I'm still at 24/10 and some light snow that's not on radarscope even in the high sensitivity. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 40 corridor and North should fill in with returns in the next hour or two and by 2 or 3 it should be snowing from Bristol to maybe Tys and points north and west. Check out the forecast for today upstream in Southern Kentucky on the border. I have family that still live in my home town of London, Ky. They look to be a very sweet spot today--along with you and most areas in Northern TN. I think I'm sitting on the fence here, but watching the radar closely. Radar returns seem to take a dive southeast as they move into East TN, so perhaps I can salvage an inch or two later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It was coming down heavy here in White House Tennessee around 9:30am. Thing is it sounded like a sleet storm so I'm starting to wonder if I even see two inches out of this before it changes over. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Could you post an Ice accretion map? After looking at the actual GEM site the ice map is wrong. For whatever reason it took the RGEM showing 5-7.5 mm and divided it by 10 turned it into .5-.75 inches of ice. This is the actual map. Some 5 mm with a few 7.5 mm blobs on the latest run, which is roughly .2 to .3 ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Noticing a narrow band of snow developing over the central Plateau. Appears to be pointing toward Knoxvegas. Could be showing us approximately where the snow is going to set up later--north of that line. I'm interested to see if that streak of snow holds together or are we going to get downsloped in the valley. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm interested to see if that streak of snow holds together or are we going to get downsloped in the valley. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk With upstream moisture and lift moving in, downsloping shouldn't be a big factor today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It was coming down heavy here in White House Tennessee around 9:30am. Thing is it sounded like a sleet storm so I'm starting to wonder if I even see two inches out of this before it changes over. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Was that sleet or snow? It should have been snow, your 850 and 925mb temps are both -3c and obviously it's below freezing at the surface too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Not that it matters all that much this close to event but 12Z GFS is still consistent on that narrow area along the plateau and adjacent valley counties getting just buried. If that pans out it appearss most of that would happen between 11PM tonight and 11AM tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Was that sleet or snow? It should have been snow, your 850 and 925mb temps are both -3c and obviously it's below freezing at the surface too. It sounded like rain when it was falling so I'd say definitely some sleet mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Flurries SW of campus in JC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It sounded like rain when it was falling so I'd say definitely some sleet mixed in. Looks like some pretty good returns heading your way again over the next half hour. Hope it's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 No radar returns here but flurries and sleet pellets falling here 13 miles south of I 40, and 8 miles east of the Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like some pretty good returns heading your way again over the next half hour. Hope it's all snow. Me too! I'll keep everyone updated on what falls plus pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Flurries SW of campus in JC. Yup same here. Pretty weird as the most of virga as seemed to move out. However, no complaints! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Yup same here. Pretty weird as the most of virga as seemed to move out. However, no complaints! Generally speaking, where in the city are you located? (north, south, university, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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