Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Who has pbp tonight for the 0z Euro? I think I am taking a break unless no one can do it...but will be around. Last one before the event impacts west TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Heh I am cracking up at the model runs right now. One gives me 12 inches, another gives me 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Heh I am cracking up at the model runs right now. One gives me 12 inches, another gives me 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Euro has the heaviest snow axis about where the GFS did but with about 1/2 the amounts. Virtually nothing south of 40. 2-5 inches along the Kentucky border counties into SWVA. Looks like it runs the low just under the apps and has it in Central NC by 60, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Here's the Euro snow map. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wow. 12 hours out and things are not set. Not sure at this point that it matters which side of the Apps this goes. Even if it turns the corner, it probably will be too close to switch things back to snow. But really, I am not sure I have seen the models so "indecisive" on which side of the Apps to take. Just a thought...The timing and progression of the 0z UKMET and Euro seem to be slower and lean towards a Miller A/inland runner track. But by the time the inland runner occurs, there is no more cold air. Just thinking outside of the box...what if they delay and wind up phasing w/ the kicker? Has happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wow. 12 hours out and things are not set. Not sure at this point that it matters which side of the Apps this goes. Even if it turns the corner, it probably will be too close to switch things back to snow. But really, I am not sure I have seen the models so "indecisive" on which side of the Apps to take. Just a thought...The timing and progression of the 0z UKMET and Euro seem to be slower and lean towards a Miller A/inland runner track. But by the time the inland runner occurs, there is no more cold air. Just thinking outside of the box...what if they delay and wind up phasing w/ the kicker? Has happened before. Wow. 12 hours out and things are not set. Not sure at this point that it matters which side of the Apps this goes. Even if it turns the corner, it probably will be too close to switch things back to snow. But really, I am not sure I have seen the models so "indecisive" on which side of the Apps to take. Just a thought...The timing and progression of the 0z UKMET and Euro seem to be slower and lean towards a Miller A/inland runner track. But by the time the inland runner occurs, there is no more cold air. Just thinking outside of the box...what if they delay and wind up phasing w/ the kicker? Has happened before. It's not even an inland runner on the Euro, it goes from East of Charlotte to off the coast of Virginia from 60 to 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Euro Ens, Control and Op are all pretty much in lock step with snow amounts, temps, track. 2-5 inches north of 40 on all three, then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandra76 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 06 nam and gfs pushes it all back to kentucky pretty much But the 06 RGEM keeps it here and snowing till 15 z mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandra76 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 508 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 ...WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... .A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TNZ040-067>071-073-141815- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0007.160214T1800Z-160215T1500Z/ NORTHWEST COCKE-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT- NORTH SEVIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY... KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE 508 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY. * EVENT...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...A FEW AREAS MAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY...WITH A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...RAIN AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND/OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Man, the GFS just insists on burying me. 12 inches again on 06z. I'm thinking 3-5 but hopefully it's even half right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Virga streaking across radar at 7:45 am. MRX has moved onset up several hours and bumped up totals slightly. Also, TRI dropped to 11 last night. All good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandra76 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wonder if the 12z models will shed any light or if it stays in kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 My concern is getting more freezing rain in my area than currently forecasted. I've seen it before--as recent as last February--where a little ice is forecast, but WWA takes over sooner and a half inch of freezing rain falls. I'd rather have a sleet fest than that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wasn't liking the in house model from WCYB in Bristol this morning. Shows a brief light period of snow, then most of the accumulating snows stay north in Kentucky and Virginia until 4:30 am tomorrow. Radar should start to fill in around the I-40 corridor in the coming hours. If it doesn't, the higher totals before a changeover might be in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Anyone else find it strange that the Great Smoky Mountains are in the advisory area and not the Warning area? That threw me off right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It's not even an inland runner on the Euro, it goes from East of Charlotte to off the coast of Virginia from 60 to 66.Turns the corner and runs inland from Charlottte to Delmarva. Yes, it is an inland runner. Either way...crazy to seey that kind of change from the Euro so close.Edit: WxBell looks slightly different than TropicalTidbits on low placement. WxBell is what I use. Not allowed to post pay Euro slides or would post them here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 MRX popped a Winter Storm Warning for a large part of my local area (TRI, Oak Ridge, Greeneville & up into SW VA) URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN508 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016...WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAYMORNING....A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO THEAREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGINFALLING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLYMIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOMEPOCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THEPRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.TNZ012>018-035>039-042>047-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-141815-/O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0002.160214T1800Z-160215T1800Z//O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0003.160214T1800Z-160215T1700Z/SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON508 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TONOON EST MONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TONOON EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* EVENT...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES AREEXPECTED...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHERELEVATION AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IN ADDITION...A FEW AREASMAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ATENTH OF AN INCH.* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING BY EARLYAFTERNOON TODAY. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MIX OFSNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNINGBEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandra76 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like its trying to give Knox north a ice storm on 12 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like its trying to give Knox north a ice storm on 12 nam I hope that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 If we need things to start early it is not looking good for the Knoxville area. Radar shows returns north of us and sliding north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like its trying to give Knox north a ice storm on 12 nam Exactly my concern I posted earlier. If this starts as rain, then I'm hoping for a quick warm-up. Plain rain is better than the freezing variety. If I'm not gonna see snow, or even sleet--give me a cold, unfrozen rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This is really a now cast obs scenario. One thing in our favor at the moment most locations Nashville east are low to mid 20s with single digits dewpoints. That's some solid cold at the surface. I'm currently at 24 dewpoint 2, NE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm 22/07 right now Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Got down to 17 last night. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 MRX has a high of 31 today and a low of 31 tonight for me, interesting. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Very concerning trend today out of the short range models. The HI-RES nam and the HRRR are shifting the precip shield well north into Kentucky cutting down on amounts. The GFS and the RGEM are the only models left that keep enough precip south. 12z HI-RES NAM: 13z HRRR 15 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Very concerning trend today out of the short range models. The HI-RES nam and the HRRR are shifting the precip shield well north into Kentucky cutting down on amounts. The GFS and the RGEM are the only models left that keep enough precip south. Yea I think it is time to hang this one up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Very concerning trend today out of the short range models. The HI-RES nam and the HRRR are shifting the precip shield well north into Kentucky cutting down on amounts. The GFS and the RGEM are the only models left that keep enough precip south. Yeah I've noticed that... If the entire axis shifts it doesn't really matter what temp it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Precip looks further north IMO and is tracking more east than SE. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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