Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro sends 3-4 inches along the border counties with Kentucky, slightly dipping down to two or so counties below the border on the Plateau. Not much south of there this run. Less than 2 inches mostly. Also remains the most wound up and cuts it right over Blount County. Does the Euro show ice accretion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro sends 3-4 inches along the border counties with Kentucky, slightly dipping down to two or so counties below the border on the Plateau. Not much south of there this run. Less than 2 inches mostly. Also remains the most wound up and cuts it right over Blount County. Is this all on the front end? MRX was talking about the Euro yesterday being an apps runner and back side snow could be heavy, even in the valley. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Either way, I don't like how consistent the Euro is with its track and strength. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandra76 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Maybe now that the storm is on shore and they are sending weather balloons to it we might get a better picture from later models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Is this all on the front end? MRX was talking about the Euro yesterday being an apps runner and back side snow could be heavy, even in the valley. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes it is. It is too warm for snow on the backside. It wasn't too generous with the front side snow either. It has KTRI getting up to 46 on Monday. It has me nervous that the Euro isn't backing down from its cutter west side of the apps solution. The GGEM which had been very consistent finally moved to the north in line with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 I want to ride the RGEM into battle. (Another view of 12z hour 48 still snowing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yes it is. It is too warm for snow on the backside. It wasn't too generous with the front side snow either. It has KTRI getting up to 46 on Monday. It has me nervous that the Euro isn't backing down from its cutter west side of the apps solution. The GGEM which had been very consistent finally moved to the north in line with the other models. Yeah that's not good. Hopefully rates will be high enough to fight off WAA for a while. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I will add another thing I noticed. The RGEM is colder and has more precip on the front side than the GGEM. The GGEM didn't really match up that well with the RGEM in the first 48 hours of the storm. I might just roll with the RGEM and the HI-RES NAM from here on out. They will probably be able to tell better when the freezing line moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Is this all on the front end? MRX was talking about the Euro yesterday being an apps runner and back side snow could be heavy, even in the valley. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's heavy in Kentucky, they end up with 10+ inches in a big chunk of central Kentucky. You'd think with a 1002 lp sitting on Bluefield WVA with cold to the west that it would wrap around a little more but it doesn't. Even with winds out of the NW and what should be a big snowpack in Kentucky, it's showing temps of 40-50 or so over East Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's heavy in Kentucky, they end up with 10+ inches in a big chunk of central Kentucky. You'd think with a 1002 lp sitting on Bluefield WVA with cold to the west that it would wrap around a little more but it doesn't. Even with winds out of the NW and what should be a big snowpack in Kentucky, it's showing temps of 40-50 or so over East Tennessee. Gotta hope it's over amped and to warm. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The precip axis on the Euro lines up from Memphis to SE Kentucky on that run through 48 hours. .4-.5 falls into sub-freezing air along the Northern Plateau. .2 or less in most other areas of Tennessee. Especially along and south of 40. Not much falls there until the temps are above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWTNWX Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The big key for this end of the state to get in on the frozen on the front end is when the precip starts. The 4k NAM and RGEM continue to start things around 11 am Sunday. This gives us about 8 hours of frozen instead of the couple the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Here is one thing most models underdo w over-running. It is usually quicker than forecast, meaning often precip races out well in advance of the main system. One more run tonight, and we are into short range model territory. Haven't looked closely at the Euro yet as I have been coaching basketball. Looking like we are going to have to depend on a good front end thump of snow and then a slopfest. The system looks like it has a shot at being a Miller A. The Euro is on the western edge of guidance and has a habit of being slow...but it is the Euro amd betting against it comes at a risk. At this point, I lean towards a weak slp sliding across the northern end of the Gulf Coast states, just south of the TN border. Then, I do think it has a real chance of rounding the base of the Apps and running just east of the Apps. Definitley possible that some energy handoff could occur if a weak reflection jogs west over Chatt. The models really like the northern Plateau and and southwest KY. I think someone in the eastern half of TN will get good initial amounts. Just depends where the axis of precip sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandra76 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1133 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTH HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHICH INCLUDES THE UPPER CUMBERLAND... .COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TNZ005>011-023>034-064>066-140300- /O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0006.160214T1800Z-160215T1200Z/ STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON- HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH- JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD... GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY... DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET... HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON... JAMESTOWN...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE 1133 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY. * TIMING...NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY. * MAIN IMPACT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA DUE TO A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. *ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I found two forcast snowfall graphics on MRX's site. This one appears to have the later time stamp of 2:42, and shows higher snowfall totals than the one posted at 11:30 today. Yeah, they had 1-2 inches for the Central Valley a few hours ago, but increased it to 2-3 inches recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yeah, they had 1-2 inches for the Central Valley a few hours ago, but increased it to 2-3 inches recently. The 4-6" in JC is more also Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hopefully you get a front end surprise tomorrow. It'll be tough to manage much down your way though with the low tracking so far north. Wouldn't that be nice. We have had near miss after near miss while it dumps snow north of the Tennessee border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 MRX rolling with the GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Winter Storm Watches are up from MRX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I expect surprises with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I expect surprises with this one. In my experience if we are going to have a surprise(by no means a certainty)....the cold air hangs on a bit longer longer and/or precip moves in quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 In my experience if we are going to have a surprise(by no means a certainty)....the cold air hangs on a bit longer longer and/or precip moves in quicker. Yep we've seen that many times. MRX alludes to that to some extent in the AFD by mentioning still at this stage there are uncertainties especially in duration of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Tonight's model runs will probably dictate whether the Central Valley gets a Winter Storm Warning or a Winter Weather Advisory. I already expect a WWA for areas southwest of Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 High is centered further south by a large margin Western Indiana vs Ontario on the RGEM H12 vs same time frame on 12Z. Edit: NM it makes it way there on the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 RGEM does depict possibly light snow Tomorrow morning 7AM ish all the way across the northern part of the state to East Tennessee. Knox even with possibly a dusting at 7AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If the waa can be mitigated via lp to our se enough along with cold air entrenched in the mountains, we could easily wind up with possibly much more than the models and forecasters expect. Ala; last February 21. Let's not forget how all forecasters and all but one model(para gfs) had us getting an inch or less right up to even after the event had began!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If the waa can be mitigated via lp to our se enough along with cold air entrenched in the mountains, we could easily wind up with possibly much more than the models and forecasters expect. Ala; last February 21. Let's not forget how all forecasters and all but one model(para gfs) had us getting an inch or less right up to even after the event had began!. I remember that storm. It was funny to watch Todd Howell constantly increase his projected snowfall totals during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Last years Feb 21 event was like pulling a magic rabbit out of the hat. That was some very unique and almost unexplainable set of circumstances that led to us, at least in my area getting almost 5in of snow. It just kept on and on and on. Meanwhile, areas to my east like Greeneville, and Johnson City were roasting around 39-40 degrees. Apparently there was enough cold air trapped, enough of a cold pocket aloft, and heavy enough precip, to keep the WAA at bay here, but the foothills got a direct hit of that warm air. So incredibly rare and odd. I could only hope for a miracle like that this time, but I won't hold my breath. Just gotta hope for good front end snow, and enjoy whatever we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 RGEM shows some mixing beginning around 7AM Monday morning for East TN, with most of East TN switched over to rain by 10 to 11AM Monday morning for East TN, until then RGEM is snow. Totals look realistic to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 RGEM shows some mixing beginning around 7AM for East TN, with most of East TN switched over to rain by 10 to 11AM Monday morning for East TN, until then RGEM is snow. Totals look realistic to me. I'll cash out Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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