franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This system is becoming a disorganized mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandra76 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yeah GFS has a bullseye of like 2' of snow up around Frozen Head in Morgan County. Never saw a true lp till it was in the north east or did I miss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Never saw a true lp till it was in the north east or did I miss it GFS has it sort of disappear around LA then reform NE GA then up through the Piedmont. In fact with as weak as the GFS is showing this I have a harder time with its ability to erode cold surface as easy as the GFS depicts. I think the Canadian is too cold, I think the GFS is too warm. A blend between the 2 on surface temps is probably more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS has it sort of disappear around LA then reform NE GA then up through the Piedmont. In fact with as weak as the GFS is showing this I have a harder time with its ability to erode cold surface as easy as the GFS depicts. I think the Canadian is too cold, I think the GFS is too warm. A blend between the 2 on surface temps is probably more accurate. That sounds like a Miller B but too far west. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Took a look at mslp on wxbell. The GFS is a touch south and east. Tough to tell how much energy(if an) goes west. Gets strung out as it heads east. Does seem to have trended towards an A. But can it get to that solution w so little time left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC is a north and warmer at 54. Waiting on snow maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Welcome to the family Powell, nice to have another east TN poster in the house! Para GFS at 6z keeps most of east TN snow until around 10am. (Give or take an hour or two). If the precip is heavy enough it could be a situation that it stays snow for those couple of extra hours and create quite a thump before getting washed away... Does anyone have qpf data for the para through 15z Monday (10am)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z Canadian looks remarkably close to the 0z Para Euro and 12z GFS. Front end thump of snow and then rain. Kicker is on al models. Would like to see the trend of weaker and south continue. The original idea from several days ago is more of a longshot, but not off the table w today's trends. Need the slp or wave to be flat and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC is a north and warmer at 54. Waiting on snow maps... Yep Canadian is definitely warmer and further north... Looks like it gravitating toward GFS like scenario with track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yep Canadian is definitely warmer and further north... Looks like it gravitating toward GFS like scenario with track. Guessing, but a good thump of snow should be I40 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hi-res 4k NAM. Normally it's far less generous than the 12k as it reads very fine elevation details and the 12 applies more smoothing. This event, it's far more generous than the 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GGEM is pretty much 3-6 or 7 from 40 and north. Heaviest from the Plateau to NETn/SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just a shame we can't keep that High from scooting off shore so easily, but nothing there to stop it from doing so. Front end thump is what we really have to hope for and enjoy before rain. I do believe many of us get a good thumping and get to see some seriously heavy snowfall on the front end before change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z Monday Canadian Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Now I guess we will see what the Dr. has to say about the matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Surprised MRX hasn't pulled the trigger on a WSW for the mountains and northern plateau. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Surprised MRX hasn't pulled the trigger on a WSW for the mountains and northern plateau. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I think they will for the mountains and SWVA. I will be surprised if they do for here, but they might because the snow is predicted to fall fast and they are thinking there will be ice/sleet involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think they will for the mountains and SWVA. I will be surprised if they do for here, but they might because the snow is predicted to fall fast and they are thinking there will be ice/sleet involved. Just about anywhere north of 40 is close to watch criteria. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just about anywhere north of 40 is close to watch criteria. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I bet they will wait until 0Z tonight runs. I think they'll issue WSW Central valley counties north and east, and Advisory southern valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Current point forecast for JC (just for reference): 1-2" of snow Sun night. Mon, snow and sleet until 9; sleet 9-12; rain 12 until Monday night. Looks like advisory criteria to me. Of course, much is likely to change with the PM forecast package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandra76 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nws graphic is not showing much snow 1-2 Knox .5-1inch south 3-4 Johnson city they probably only will issue a advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nws graphic is not showing much snow 1-2 Knox .5-1inch south 3-4 Johnson city they probably only will issue a advisory Looks similar to Hi-res NAM with totals cut for high elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This is my current point forecast. Sunday Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 30. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Night Snow before 4am, then snow and sleet. Low around 27. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Washington's Birthday Sleet before 11am, then rain. High near 38. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Monday Night Rain likely before midnight, then rain and snow likely between midnight and 2am, then snow likely after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 They are sold on sleet, which kills snow totals, believe me, after two sleet fests last year when I would have otherwise had 12-15 inches snow, I well know it. Also, all the maps we see are 10:1. A lot of this snow could be 8:1 or lower. So while it would still be an impact event, I'm not sure it makes their WSW criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 MRX opting for a front-end tease rather than thump. A bit confused were they're getting sleet, unless it's a hunch based on how stubborn arctic cold can be to leave. Sent from my decrepit iPhone 4s using an outdated version of Chrome for iOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 AL mets are saying all rain, no snow south of the Tennessee line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 MRX opting for a front-end tease rather than thump. A bit confused were they're getting sleet, unless it's a hunch based on how stubborn arctic cold can be to leave. Sent from my decrepit iPhone 4s using an outdated version of Chrome for iOS I think the NAM is stubborn with the low level cold leaving and shows 4-6 hours of sleet/freezing rain over parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 AL mets are saying all rain, no snow south of the Tennessee line. Hopefully you get a front end surprise tomorrow. It'll be tough to manage much down your way though with the low tracking so far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halls Hustler Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Thanks for all your time and info. l have been watching and learning for a few years. I also live in Halls and am member of Volquest. I enjoy John's Campbell County perspective as I worked there for awhile and Powell you jeep looks familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Euro sends 3-4 inches along the border counties with Kentucky, slightly dipping down to two or so counties below the border on the Plateau. Not much south of there this run. Less than 2 inches mostly. Also remains the most wound up and cuts it right over Blount County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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