John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I am going to guess that Nashville issues Winter Storm Watches for at least it's northern tier of counties. Kentucky WFO will probably do the same. MRX will either issue one for SW Va/Mountains or not one at all yet. Mrx will forecast probably 1-4 inches around and north of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 06z NAM doesn't cut, the clipper is too close, it gets kicked across central Georgia at frame where the GFS has it on the Alabama/Tennessee border. Then it scoots due east and out to sea. Meanwhile a warm/wet clipper system is poised to roll into the area by 84. It still gets close enough to the area to dump heavy rain all the way to Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I am going to guess that Nashville issues Winter Storm Watches for at least it's northern tier of counties. Kentucky WFO will probably do the same. MRX will either issue one for SW Va/Mountains or not one at all yet. Mrx will forecast probably 1-4 inches around and north of 40. That is a good question, Nashville usually plays it pretty close, one would think that they would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Haha 6z GFS appears south again. Don't know what happens between 66 and 72, but at 72, the low is moving into SC maybe a hair west of Columbia. Not up the mtns and over on this side. It may come up to the border and drop down, but it appears to make the turn up through SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 06 gfs shows a good 6-8 inches initial thump illmtake that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN433 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-132200-STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI433 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS MUCHOF MIDDLE TN AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SUNDAYAS AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP.LIGHT SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAYMORNING...THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ANDINTENSITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE SUNDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SNOW...EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIESALONG THE ALABAMA BORDER...WHERE RAIN WILL FALL. TRAVEL COULDBECOME HAZARDOUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OFINTERSTATE 40...WHERE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MORELIKELY.GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATIONTO CHANGE OVER TOO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEFORE THISCHANGE IS COMPLETE...SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND1 INCH FOR AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 40...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR AREASALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION.IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZINGRAIN...CAUSING ICY CONDITIONS.MOST OF THE MID STATE WILL HAVE ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZINGTEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGIONCOULD STAY COLD AND ICY UNTIL MID MORNING.THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY HOWQUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AND CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TOCHANGE OVER TO RAIN. SMALL TEMPERATURE CHANGES COULD CAUSE THESNOW FORECASTS TO GO UP OR DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY.PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OR SURROUNDING AREASSHOULD BE PREPARED FOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAYMORNING. PLEASE MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON THISDEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandra76 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... INGREDIENTS ARE POTENTIALLY COMING TOGETHER FOR A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD INTENSIFY AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD TRANSITION FROM HEAVY SNOW...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO HEAVY RAIN AS WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNS A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAKE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS WITH THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...MAKING IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO NARROW IN ON THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE ALREADY HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE SLIGHTEST SHIFT IN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...THE WPC FORECAST TRIED TO STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...BUT THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR UPDATES. PLEASE REFER TO THE PMDHMD FOR MORE DETAILS ON MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE QPFPFD FOR DETAILS ON THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THIS EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 6Z GFS Clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like yet another swing and a miss for us down here. GFS is almost 3" of 36 degree rain. Blech. Bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 RGEM out to 6Z Monday Morning still snowing on RGEM Nashville East at this point on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Lots of different solutions out there this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Lots of different solutions out there this AM. I really don't recall so many solutions to a storm track this close to an event in all the years tracking winter storms. I'm still so very iffy on a track up the spine of the Apps. I'm not sold just because climatologically speaking its an incredibly rare event to track over the high country with the SLP. West or East of the Apps i'm still betting, with east of the Apps my bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 New to the board. I know a few posters on here and finally decided to join the party. I live in Halls off Emory rd close to the High School in North Knox Co. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I may just end up riding the RGEM, RAP, and HRRR short term models and just throw all else out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Welcome Powell, Seven on volquest here. Powell will bring some good discussion to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 New to the board. I know a few posters on here and finally decided to join the party. I live in Halls off Emory rd close to the High School in North Knox Co. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I really don't recall so many solutions to a storm track this close to an event in all the years tracking winter storms. I'm still so very iffy on a track up the spine of the Apps. I'm not sold just because climatologically speaking its an incredibly rare event to track over the high country with the SLP. West or East of the Apps i'm still betting, with east of the Apps my bet. Weren't we all saying this during the Jan system? Obviously, the two systems are entirely different, but models could not get a handle then either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Powell...I've enjoyed your weather posts on Volquest. Welcome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Weren't we all saying this during the Jan system? Obviously, the two systems are entirely different, but models could not get a handle then either. True in all reality I probably say that at least once a year lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12Z suites about to run I guess we'll see what they have to say. I say they all reverse their previous tracks to the opposites. Ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 New to the board. I know a few posters on here and finally decided to join the party. I live in Halls off Emory rd close to the High School in North Knox Co. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Welcome to the family Powell, nice to have another east TN poster in the house!Para GFS at 6z keeps most of east TN snow until around 10am. (Give or take an hour or two). If the precip is heavy enough it could be a situation that it stays snow for those couple of extra hours and create quite a thump before getting washed away... Does anyone have qpf data for the para through 15z Monday (10am)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Sitting at halftime...some brief thoughts. Hey Powell, welcome! Para Euro is almost a miller A. I suspect we are going to see a Miller A over the western Piedmont. The waa is pretty wicked in terms of warm. Need the system to stay flat and move quick. Models after 12z have trended warmer, south, and faster. 2/3 is not bad. See u back at 2:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Powell...I've enjoyed your weather posts on Volquest. Welcome!!Thanks buddy. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z RGEM totals at 48, still snowing in the eastern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Any of the mods handle temps with high precip rates well? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Eager to see what the NAM does after that 6z abortion this morning. No way that was right. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z RGEM totals at 48, still snowing in the eastern half of the state. The temperatures across TN at 48. Lots of 20s in east TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 RGEM tropicaltidbits county layer map, as Reb mentions still snowing East TN at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS dumps on the plateau before changing to rain everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS dumps on the plateau before changing to rain everywhere Yeah GFS has a bullseye of like 2' of snow up around Frozen Head in Morgan County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.