Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 0z GEFS has the kicker a bit closer. That pushes it on through. That is what we need to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Check that. The GEFS rounds the base of the Apps. Stove, you have the accumulation maps? 0z GEFS day 1-8 snow mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Sequence of hours 72, 78, and 84 for the 0z GEFS....Does it look like it cuts? Stove, can you tell w/ your maps if it does. Looks to me like it slides as a weak open surface wave across north Alabama, north Georgia and through the western Piedmont? If so, that means the 0z is north of its ensemble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 It looks like it cuts right over the plateau on my maps. Maybe even eastern highland rim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z GEFS day 1-8 snow mean: Yep, thought that might be the case. Thanks, Stove. Hoping the UKMET is not a precursor to the Euro... You can seek the kicker at 84 on the GEFS. It does not allow it to move north much. (edit: Check that. See Stovepipe's comment above) Same feature is on the Canadian. The Euro usually has superior physics at this range...but interesting to see two features w/ that clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It looks like it cuts right over the plateau on my maps. Maybe even eastern highland rim. So, is that snow on the front end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's been northwest of its op for the past 2 or 3 runs after being south of it for 3 or 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Per JB at 6:30 PM on Weatherbell. We'll see if he changes up after the 0z suite is completed. Likes the 12z Para Euro... There is enough competition going on that until this REACHES THE EAST COAST, it wont be able to amplify enough for the more westward ideas ( in the mountains) to be the most the most likely idea. I hold with my ideas. I may have to change around the edges.. trying to figure out where the rain/ice snow ratios will me and then the western edge. But this has always looked like Tenn valley to the mountains as the area to watch for the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 So, is that snow on the front end? Yep, snow to rain with not much mixing according to the p-type maps. But that obviously is a blended rendering. I'm sure there would be sleet and ice in there in reality for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @12 the Euro is a tad slower moving HP out. Might mean the whole set-up is slower(edit). Keeping that in mind, it is a hair colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @24 the Euro is pretty similar w/ the feature coming out of the Northwest being a bit faster and HP in the East being slightly more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @36, HP again is moving out but the high is more robust. Looks like precip is coming in at a steeper angle from north streaking out of North Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @42 Appears quicker and is a bit east of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Surface freezing line is jumping around all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @48 It is colder in middle TN...the precip axis is flatter than 12z. Also, a fraction faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @54 precip streaking along the TN/KY border. Looks similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @60...precip is flat across the state. System is tad north and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @66 the slp is weaker and is in north MS. Meso high in North Carolina for 60h and 66h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @72 the slp is over Chatt. Faster and a bit south of 12z. edit: check that...it is faster and is south of the the previous time increment. Hope that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @78 Cuts right up the spine of the Apps heading northeast. A bit east and faster than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @84 the slp is over south central PA. Much faster this run... Kicker is about 100 miles faster in Iowa... That's all. Heavy snow axis in north of I 40 from Nashville to Bristol and then NNE to PA. The axis is a south and east of 12z by about 100 miles roughly, more-so in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Snow is less expansive over the Knoxville area...but that could just be an algorithm issue. 2+" of liquid qpf. I cannot imagine this thing running the spine of the Apps. EPS will again have to be relied upon to know where the slp groupings are. Takeaways...a bit faster, 100 miles southwest of 12z track, Apps runner from Chatt to PA right over the Apps(could happen but I doubt it). With it being weaker, it almost turned the corner at the base of the Apps. Still two options on the table with one being an Apps runner up the eastern Valley or an inland runner up the western Piedmont. Close call. Time for bed. Great discussion this evening, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I just wanted to thank you guys for posting your thoughts and updates. I just discovered this board during the last snowstorm (or bust for the Knoxville area) but it has been a blast watching all the model madness the past few days. Hopefully we will at least get the front end thump from this storm, even if it does change to rain on Monday. Regardless, look forward to the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I just wanted to thank you guys for posting your thoughts and updates. I just discovered this board during the last snowstorm (or bust for the Knoxville area) but it has been a blast watching all the model madness the past few days. Hopefully we will at least get the front end thump from this storm, even if it does change to rain on Monday. Regardless, look forward to the next 36 hours. Wurbus, it is a great board, and we are glad you are here. People are here to talk weather. We have some great mets in MrBob and Jeff. We could always use a few more mets. I know MathMet is here when mountain wave events occur - kind of a specialty of his. But really...it is a good board and it doesn't get too wound-up if things don't work out. Jeff and WarEagle have had some great threads this winter about severe wx. But nice to have a place to talk about the weather in our region. Heading off to bed. Someone post some EPS updates if you stay up that late...or get up that early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 One correction...my eyes are tired. Just took a closer look at the 0z Euro slp track. At 12z it literally just goes over the mountain around SW VA then slides up the east side of the Apps, and recurves a bit into Quebec. This current 0z run tracks from Chatt to WV to PA and then towards Maine where it is east and much, much faster along w/ being weaker. The snow shield is still southwest about 100 miles. Quite literally, it split the difference between and Apps runner and an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 At this point, I'm pretty confident in most everyone north of I-40 on the plateau getting 3-5 inches. The big question mark is how or if a surface feature develops and rides the spine of the Apps. A slower system will kill everyone west of the Apps and south of the Tn/Ky border in snow totals; however, if the upper max vort can slide in faster and punch the surface feature further southeast, those totals could be outrageously higher, downsloping be damned. There's plenty of juice. High rates look great for the border counties of SWVA/NETN, but for the greater mountain valleys, we need a faster moving system to punch that surface feature into the Piedmont. The GGEM has been stubbornly consistent, and that is worth noting, but clearly Dr. No (Euro) has my greatest confidence. Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Here's David Aldrich's early call for snowfall accumulations. These are the amounts before the change to all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There was a strong lp that moved up the great valley on February 11-12th 1985 that deluged this area with over 2 inches of rain of which then changed to heavy snow and an actual blizzard as wind was frequently gusting over 40 mph. 15" along with 4-6 foot drifts was observed after just a 6 hour span(1:15 to 7:30 a.m.) of snow falling! And just to think, all on a very wet ground. Tremendous rates! Nothing of this nature was forecasted. So, even if there's an app runner it doesn't mean there won't still be alot of snow on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There was a strong lp that moved up the great valley on February 11-12th 1985 that deluged this area with over 2 inches of rain of which then changed to heavy snow and an actual blizzard as wind was frequently gusting over 40 mph. 15" along with 4-6 foot drifts was observed after just a 6 hour span(1:15 to 7:30 a.m.) of snow falling! And just to think, all on a very wet ground. Tremendous rates! Nothing of this nature was forecasted. So, even if there's an app runner it doesn't mean there won't still be alot of snow on the backside I was just talking about that one the other day. One of the great snow storms of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 EPS mean is Chattanooga to Knoxville to Tri. EPS control is up the spine and that little jump over into SW Virginia and up the east side of the Apps the rest of the way up. Mean snowfall is 2-5 inches from 40 into Southern Kentucky. Control snowfall is 3-6+ from 40 into Southern Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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