Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z NAM snow: Sleet: Freezing Rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like a thump on the front side of gfs then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z GFS took it right over the spine of the Apps at TRI. I can remember only one time that has happened. Knoxville got a good front-end thump on a very, very narrow band of precip. Kind of a strange run...but Euro like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 0z GFS is a flooding threat!!!! 2.5-4" of QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z GFS was a frontal passage. 0z was an Apps runner. Whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Here the 0z GFS at hour 78. I'll take this, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 0z GFS is a flooding threat!!!! 2.5-4" of QPF! Was way slower...not sure I am buying that run yet. Euro and GFS both like to cut over the southern Apps. That is pretty strange. The Nino could be forcing this north a bit. All winter systems have trended north and west at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z GFS clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z GFS clown: Give me those totals and I'll be ecstatic. Interesting how the amounts on this map is different than TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Canadian is rolling. Looks very similar to 36 w/ the high sliding maybe a smidge east. Northern system is a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @42 the Canadian is faster w/ the northern energy and a bit flatter w precip axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 @54 Canadian snowfall axis is a tad south. Book is not written on that run yet. Flatter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Was way slower...not sure I am buying that run yet. Euro and GFS both like to cut over the southern Apps. That is pretty strange. The Nino could be forcing this north a bit. All winter systems have trended north and west at the last minute. Carvers, I can never remember a storm having this many wild variations this close to an event. The front end thump is being modeled pretty closely and then the options diverge and are different on every run. I think though that this storm will be 40% snow and 60% rain north of 1-40 and 30% snow and 70 % rain south of that. Pretty much every model does show 3-6 inches of snow north of 1-40 on the initial thumb. I think south of that can get a few inches too. Thank goodness for this cold airmass already in place or we might be looking at an all rain storm. I wonder if the model physics (or a lack thereof) have anything to do with some runs wanting to barrel the low straight into the mountains? With that being said even with a track southeast of the mountains is going to give us a good period of rain. The 0z GFS somehow came up with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z Canadian is south. I have to laugh. The GFS is north and west. Worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The CMC has a clipper that acts as a kicker. Pushes it right on through. The GFS and Euro...that clipper is slower. That appears to be the ticket to unlocking this...Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What's the chances of the Canadian being right. I mean the Canadian is loving Tennessee with snow for another run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Which handles clippers better? Got to put some weight on the fact that the CMC is so rock steady. What does the Ukie look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 In a model land of uncertainty the Canadian doesn't back down with its southern track. Low never makes it close to the mountains. How many runs does that make? Incredible consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 In a model land of uncertainty the Canadian doesn't back down with its southern track. Low never makes it close to the mountains. How many runs does that make? Incredible consistency. Unfortunately, the high snow totals for the Valley are no longer there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 County level view of that sweet ggem: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Unfortunately, the high snow totals for the Valley are no longer there. If we are lucky enough to have that verify, 5 to 6 inches of snow in Knox county this winter would be friggin amazing. Even if it did get rained away a few hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What's the chances of the Canadian being right. I mean the Canadian is loving Tennessee with snow for another run. A good question...I will simply say what DT would say, "How often does the Canadian verify better than the Euro?" The CMC has been decent this winter...but w/ the NAM, GFS, and Euro at 0z sitting northwest of its track I doubt the Canadian scores a coup. The JMA is with it though. Anyone know what the 0z UKMET looks like? All of that said, if the kicker is that close in real life, the Canadian is correct. If it hangs back, the system will be an Apps runner IMO with a good front end snow dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 UKMET @72 shows an Apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 County level view of that sweet ggem: That would cover about 80% of our forum area. Don't know if it verifies, but that is the model I hope verifies. It is just quicker. Doesn't hold back. If anything, it was quicker than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 UKMET @72 shows an Apps runner Well, so much for the Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 UKMET @72 shows an Apps runner Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm pretty sure the Euro will stick to it's guns and show an App runner, but how funny would it be for it to switch to a Miller A just to throw more confusion out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just hope for the front end bang. Heck, last year we got a major winter storm that cut from Memphis to Ohio because we had fresh arctic air that didn't retreat as quickly as it was modeled. Get as much precip down as we can before the warmth arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Anyone have the GEFS maps for 0z? TropicalTidbits has it but I am guessing w/ the precip shield that it may be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Check that. The GEFS rounds the base of the Apps. Stove, you have the accumulation maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.