Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm not sure we can avoid the warn nose so we need the Euro and it's rapid expansion of major precip into the cold if we can't get the Canadian solution. It's tough to get all snow with gulf tracks for the southern valley. It's really tough for all of us with central gulf Coast state tracks. So hope for the biggest front end thump you can get. Also hope the heavy precip can cool from the top down. The NAM shows that happening during the event in spots. Just very heavy snow blobs on the map with the dynamic cooling. Yep. A consistent feature is waa which is ironically what this system is anyway. This system is really a bonus system as models had us warming during this time frame weeks ago. This system will cut our warm-up from 7-10 days to 5-7 days. Anyway, I will take my front end snow knowing it could have been 60 and sunny. LOL. For NE TN folks, we will probably hold on the longest to cold temps, and then deal with the whole kitchen sink...and then back to snow if an inland runner occurs. Also, some nice lolipops could occur to our south if precip can keep the air column cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I say no such thing as too fast precip start time the earlier the better the colder dryer air is still firmly in place the earlier it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z Euro Parallel: Seems to be slightly south and east of the op with the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Regarding the bolded, is 7 PM a good start time or is that too fast? Seems like MRX had a good write-up about the onset. Usually overrunning events are a bit faster than modeled. Just depends on which model one favors. For NE TN, I am thinking sometime after midnight Sunday, but MRX has a small chance Sunday afternoon at TRI. John, what do u see as the start times from Memphis eastward - big cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z Euro Parallel: Seems to be slightly south and east of the op with the low track. That is a great trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z GFS Parallel: The track of the low looks to me very similar to the Euro para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I say no such thing as too fast precip start time the earlier the better the colder dryer air is still firmly in place the earlier it starts.Yep, bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Both paras are very similar. Don't like the down-sloping, but those maps are almost carbon copies. That signals a nice Miller A track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 David Aldrich is saying that it could start around 7 PM Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Here's the latest graphic from MRX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Here's the latest graphic from MRX: I think that sums up the current outlook pretty well, nice job MRX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z nam has the low right by Chattanooga @ 66 Knoxville temps almost 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z nam has the low right by Chattanooga @ 66 Knoxville temps almost 50 It's straight up Euro, decent initial thump for 40 north, then p-type madness, then rain as it cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM started further south, then cut up the west side of the Apps. That may be our final solution. Had a decent 2-5 inch front end, some ice, then over to very heavy snow for some on the back side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Stovepipe, could you post the NAM map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Stovepipe, could you post the NAM map? The clowns are still rolling out on model center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Stovepipe, could you post the NAM map? Regular NAM: HI-RES NAM out to 60 and the storm is still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 0z NAM is the 12z Euro. The Euro, though it has jumped around, is tough to beat at this range. Robert mentioned in his Friday evening update that it has been stubborn w/ that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 It'll be interesting to see how the p-types were sorted out on the amwx maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Todd "conservative forecasting" Howell is going with the NAM it appears, and says light accumulations for the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Now is the time to remember that a NAM bias is to be overly amped in the long range. It is really not to be trusted past 48 hours. It held serve to 63hr and then diverged by getting stronger and cutting west. No way shape or form do I trust the NAM at this range. Sure, it is a possible solution, maybe even probable...but the long range NAM won't be what makes up my mind. There is a kicker behind this system that is a clipper(remember those pull north, so go north about 150 miles in latitude when you look at the model). It is going to make the system more progressive IMO. Would be surprised to see the system cut. Maybe a piece of it, but the entire system riding the spine of the Apps...not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hope for a favorable run from the gfs or it might be a rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Todd "conservative forecasting" Howell is going with the NAM it appears, and says light accumulations for the Valley. Basically, outside of the ggem that's probably a wise forecast. 1-3 inches appears to be reasonable for the 40 corridor and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hope for a favorable run from the gfs or it might be a rain storm I highly doubt it will be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Todd "conservative forecasting" Howell is going with the NAM it appears, and says light accumulations for the Valley. Basically, outside of the chance the ggem is right, that's probably a wise forecast. 1-3 inches appears to be reasonable for the 40 corridor and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Basically, outside of the ggem that's probably a wise forecast. 1-3 inches appears to be reasonable for the 40 corridor and south. The thing is that he is saying light accumulations North of 40 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z RGEM looking healthy at final frame hour 48: Temps are nice and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The thing is that he is saying light accumulations North of 40 as well. I can't really disagree with that forecast as of now either. I could see my area getting as few as 1-2 inches. It's just according to how much moisture comes in early and how much is virga. I will be surprised if we don't all switch to rain for a good portion of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I can't really disagree with that forecast as of now either. I could see my area getting as few as 1-2 inches. It's just according to how much moisture comes in early and how much is virga. I will be surprised if we don't all switch to rain for a good portion of the event. I could also see us getting more than that. The truth is that we still don't have a good idea what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z RGEM looking healthy at final frame hour 48: Temps are nice and cold. The short range models are just now coming into range. Really, they are almost at the far end of their range. Going to be some variation on those. Everyone needs to keep that in mind. We will know where this is going based on how strong it is over the Arklatex. Also, we will see the precip axis as well and know if the system is amped or flat. 100 miles right now is the difference in models crashing into the Apps or going under the base. The RGEM looks really good though. Going to be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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