John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Weird looking track so far on the Canadian. Rather than miller A like 12z, it goes towards the central gulf. We get some precip with the 540 favorable. Still waiting on maps for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Still dumps 4-10+ inches over the eastern 2/3rds of the valley even with the low going way down in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Canadian: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 0z GGEM snow: Edit: Changed 12z to 0z because I'm a moron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The GFS was a step in the right direction. Much more precip overall even though some of it stays south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It got there odd, it shows some mega heavy snow working across the state. Probably some 2-3 inch per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 For what it's worth, that GFS cobbed higher than the 10:1 ratio by about a half inch for TYS, CSV, and TRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 The central/eastern Carolinas, parts of north Georgia, and central Arkansas get significant ice on that Canadian run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Well, the Euro just laid a stinker in the punch bowl. Cuts the LP right up through the mid-state into Kentucky and floods us with warm air. Not sure what happens before it gets there, as I'm only able to access 24 hour panels right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Just got text and its running slow,coming through Tn wont work with just marginal temps,no need to look no more going to bed,Hopefully it changes,still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Northern energy scoots the high out like it's a tiny baby getting punted by a norse god. The storm winds up and becomes a power house on the UKMET and cuts way early. Not as strong on the Euro, but the high still gets punted, cold retreats, and the storm cuts over central Tennessee. Not a very encouraging development at all. Suddenly only the Canadian is still fully in our corner and even it was weird. Oh well, on to tomorrow, though it rarely seems like these kind of things trend back in ones favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Well, the Euro just laid a stinker in the punch bowl. Cuts the LP right up through the mid-state into Kentucky and floods us with warm air. Not sure what happens before it gets there, as I'm only able to access 24 hour panels right now. Wayyyyyy warm. Wasn't expecting that. The low makes it into the Ohio valley. Miller B city. Everyone west of the valley makes it out with 2-3 inches on the front end before everyone switches to rain. Not a good run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Wayyyyyy warm. Wasn't expecting that. The low makes it into the Ohio valley. Miller B city. Everyone west of the valley makes it out with 2-3 inches on the front end before everyone switches to rain. Not a good run at all. All part of the frustration of living below 40N and loving winter weather. Models are just amazingly inconsistent for storms here, but if they lock on one above 40N you can usually take it to the bank. Clown maps from 7-8 days out were almost perfect for the big event in the Midwest last week and the big event in WVA, Maryland, Va etc. For storms in our part of the world LP areas jump 500 miles from on 12 hour run to the next and do it multiple times right up until 2-3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Not surprising with no blocking upstream. Probably be the outcome, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Not surprising with no blocking upstream. Probably be the outcome, unfortunately. I believe we had a Significant Ice storm last year around the same time without blocking if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I believe we had a Significant Ice storm last year around the same time without blocking if I'm not mistaken. yeah, and we had heavy snow but, a much taller ridge out west along with lined up lp's up thru Eastern Canada that linked with the +nao thus acting similar to a 50-50. Also, meant to mention on the bright side, tonight's 0z Euro outcome could be a product of it's bias holding energy with the stj back , therefore allowing the northern branch lp to catch , pull it north and phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 EPS way different than the OP. At 144 it has our storm over Mobile, Alabama while the OP has it over Somerset, Kentucky. Obviously the ensembles must not agree very well with that OP run to produce a 500+ mile difference in track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 MRX disco. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT OF RIDGING FOR THE VALENTINE`S WEEKEND...AND SOMESLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGEDTO SWING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY /PRESIDENTS DAY/.THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT DETAILS OF THISSYSTEM...INCLUDING TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES ANDAMOUNTS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...DO THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FORWIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ONCEAGAIN...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF THE COLD SUBFREEZINGAIR IN PLACE...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH WOULDADVECT WARMER TO TRANSITION SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AND ALL RAIN OVERTHE COURSE OF THE DAY AND EVENING. THE GFS...IS TRENDING WARMER WITHA SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACK...WHICH WOULD SLIGHTLY CUT DOWN ON ANYWINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A MODELBLEND AND WILL MONITOR MODELS TRENDS TO ADDRESS CONFIDENCE IN FUTUREFORECAST UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 After looking at the EPS means and control, the OP is well NW of both. The mean is 2-4+ across the entire state. Control is 6-10 from Cumberland Gap to Crossville and points west north of 40 especially. 2-5 from Knoxville to Tri and .5 to 2 from Knox SW towards Chattanooga. Individual cities. Clarksville has the highest mean at about 5 inches. Crossville is around 4 Tri is around 4 inches. Knoxville, Nash and Nooga are around 2.5 to 3 Memphis is around 1.5 as is Huntsville. SE Kentucky and SW Va have means around 4 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 After finally getting to see the GFS, it actually has a decent placement on the 00z. Pops a low over South Central Georgia, just doesn't have a very large precip field with it. The initial front comes through with a few inches of snow on there. No clue where MRX gets the GFS was warm/rainy at all. Looks like mostly snow with maybe some southern Valley mixing. It's mostly just not got a lot of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 WPC day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Matthew East does a good job explaining the over night models in this video. http://www.twcnews.com/nc/triad/weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro para is no cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Para Euro is also south of the OP. 2-4 inches across most of the mid-state on it. 6+ over parts of the Southern Plateau with 4-5 for most of Eastern TN, SE KY, SW VA. Far NE Alabama. and most of far Northern Georgia also do well with 3-5 across most of that area, and 10+ in NE Ga up into sw NC with 6+ up the Foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Matthew East does a good job explaining the over night models in this video. http://www.twcnews.com/nc/triad/weather.html Thanks for the link, John. I forget to check his site at times. Excellent video and good explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 12z GFS snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It's going to be an interesting run for the 12z models. Specifically, I'd like to see the Ukie and Euro op less amped. Seeing the ensemble package from the euro last night gave me some hope, but seeing the system slow some is not a great trend. Conventional wisdom tells me the overrunning precipitation SHOULD be faster than what models show, so at the very least it's possible we can score some winter precip on a widespread basis before a change over to liquid.We also need to see the high hanging in. I noticed several days ago a weak -NAO that was shown popping at an opportune time and that IMO is what is helping slow the Atlantic down just a bit and giving the opportunity for the cold air and large high to hang in just long enough to help us. If that feature trends weaker and subsequent cold dome of air ends up just a tad further north and east it likely won't turn out well, except for CAD areas on the other side of the apps. Still a long way out, but it's been fun to track to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Just to tag onto Tnwx. The 12z GFS finally made it to the solution that the Euro has been showing for five days. It is just much drier. Now, the 0z Euro went to Iowa. Hyperbole. The 0z Euro Para looked Good. If the 12z Euro goes to the 12z UKMET, going to be tought to stay excited. Those two have ruled the roost this winter. Interestingly, during the DC blizzard...the Canadian stayed pretty consistent, ther Euro waffled as the GFS came on board, and then they all locked-in. The JMA and UKMet almost never wavered - neither is in our camp right now which makes the 12z Euro important. The 0z had no support from its ensembles, but another run through middle TN, and it is time to lower expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 12z GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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